Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like my Advisory prediction came to fruition. It would be funny if KBGM issues an AND while KBUF doesn't, lol. That would definitely be a first for sure! KBUF put out an Advisory for SE L.O. counties...As usual their snowfall map (8-12" for our/your area) looks more aggressive than neighboring KBGM map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, vortmax said: Thought the 12z GFS was showing something like that... No...quite diff look compared to EC, as far as slp location and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yeah I noticed that after my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 GFS is a beaut, plain and simple! Didn't this system start out in the Atlantic or was that just a couple runs perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 To be fair, KBUF has 5-10" for my area but a bit more to my North I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I have a good felling about tonight's little event that it over-performs for our area, rt31 and just North, but we all know how that goes, lol, it either sets up Just to my North or to my South, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Well, KBGM downsizing snow totals, basically cut in half, thru Sat a.m. Maybe they were expecting more tonight, which is going to be mostly a nothingburger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Hard to take LR modeling serious when just a week ago we are talking “record” cold for the 2nd/3rd week of feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Well, KBGM downsizing snow totals, basically cut in half, thru Sat a.m. Maybe they were expecting more tonight, which is going to be mostly a nothingburger. I think it was quite premature for them to cut totals in half so early in an event but who knows what their looking at. Obviously whatever their lookin at isn't looking to good I suppose but IMO it was still a bit to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 A GB streamer is already seeding the North Central part of the Lake so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Hard to take LR modeling serious when just a week ago we are talking “record” cold for the 2nd/3rd week of feb.. True, but we are closer to that time period now so it has some merit. This is only 12 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Pretty interesting AFD out of Upton this eve... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Good agreement with the global models with overall teleconnections and large scale features. There is however, some intensity and timing differences with individual shortwaves. A fairly stable longwave pattern is setting up with global models locking in on thumbnail ridging going up just off west coast of North America / Canada. The difference from yesterday, 24 hours ago in the modeling overall is the mean position of the ridge out west being positioned slightly further to the west and just off the west coast through much of the period. This seems to teleconnect and support some soft ridging along the eastern seaboard ahead of each subsequent shortwave to potentially impact our region. The first shortwave feature appears to be slated for Sunday into Sunday night, and the second for Wednesday into Wednesday night. If this longwave trend holds, more of a wet p-type compared to frozen p-type across much of the CWA with respect to both precip events can be expected. Pattern is still quite progressive with a lack of any blocking into Northern and Northeastern Canada, which has been the case for basically all of this winter thus far. Therefore it is prudent to not deviate too much from previous packages because confidence in global models ability to handle the details of upper level energy interaction with both systems is not above average regarding confidence level. Therefore intensity and track differences from run to run can be expected with these upcoming potential systems with models looking to resolve short wave energy interaction. The exact details of shortwave features will determine the timing and ptype with regards to potential storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I tell you, this image is starting to get old lol Winds once again veer NW -West/wsw and the band swings right through, 4k nam shows the same.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Hi Rez Canadian looks the same.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Sr models were clearly onto something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The 0z euro was meh lol Maybe an inch or two LES, same goes for the Sunday event, big storm mid week but just like the Gfs it has trended east from previous runs..Without that storm the euro is very blah for the next 10 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 IDK what Wayne County did this yr but every event ends up there. Unreal I tell ya and I'm getting sick and tired now, seriously! Just end the bull**** already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I still think we get into this band this morning some time but who klnows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Yea band is creeping north, a little more optimistic, we’ll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 So locally in buffalo one of the local news outlets (wivb) looks to be using the euro for its forecast on sunday/Sunday night...to me this still looks to be more of a 3 to 6 or even 4 to 8 area wide. NWS is calling for 2 to 4 and so is WIVB...havent they noticed the euro has NOT been king this year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So locally in buffalo one of the local news outlets (wivb) looks to be using the euro for its forecast on sunday/Sunday night...to me this still looks to be more of a 3 to 6 or even 4 to 8 area wide. NWS is calling for 2 to 4 and so is WIVB...havent they noticed the euro has NOT been king this year??? I think 4-8” is too high. Even the most aggressive of the models (GFS) spits out about .4” of QPF which to me would lead me to think a 3-6” call looks good. WWA seems likley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Guess not lol SWS says band will sink back south and precipitation rates will diminish.. yea Gfs has been trending drier last few runs, big surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Hammering here....2.5" in 1.5 hours. Currently S+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Phil says 6 more weeks of winter! Lock it in, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5.8" in a little over 2 hours... impressive burst for this area! Band moving back south.. light snow currently here in Liverpool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 5.8" in a little over 2 hours... impressive burst for this area! Been moving south light snow currently here in Liverpool. Wow. About to head out to work...Maybe 1" here by eyeball...barely worth measuring. Edit: 2" at 8 am. When i actually just measured. Snowing decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Steady snow with cotton balls falling from the sky, I’d be extremely pleased if it snowed like this most of the day, which it won’t lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 26 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Wow. About to head out to work...Maybe 1" here by eyeball...barely worth measuring. Edit: 2" at 8 am. When i actually just measured. Snowing decent here. Yeah....narrow little bugger! Went from S+ to nothing in about 5 min....There were bursts of snow where vis. went down to about 50 ft....or about 3-4"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yeah....narrow little bugger! Went from S+ to nothing in about 5 min....There were bursts of snow where vis. went down to about 50 ft....or about 3-4"/hr. Yeah driving/traffic in Bville now headed to 690...def 6-7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Well there goes Mointague's radar again. What a POS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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