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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather

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Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

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Just now, mempho said:

Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

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Only been one EF-5,Lawrenceburg

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Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall  passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

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8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall  passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

I didnt word that right,it was after about 45 min to an hr the convection started after the squall passed.I went back and looked at the K-Index on all the models there shouldn't have beeen much of any post convection,its still lightning and thunder here

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18 hours ago, mempho said:

Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

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That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee. 

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20 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee. 

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S  they had,that's just crazy 

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

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Did it get warned? Heard reports of rotation

Yes it was warned but looks like it was issued right before it was confirmed.


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18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S  they had,that's just crazy 

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee. 

20200111_184613.jpg

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee. 

20200111_184613.jpg

But this was in Alabama,it's marked on that link i posted above from NOAA

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28 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

 

 


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That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night.  There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not.  The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee. 

Yeah i have no doubts there are more EF-4 and probably even more EF5 before hand we just dont know

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That part of the line that produced the tornado moved right over my neighborhood in Morgan County. I was gone, luckily nothing here except some large limbs down, but my wife was here and said it was pretty rough. 

TROWAL dog apparently tried to hide behind the toilet. 

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So up there you get snow and tornadoes! Jealous, haha

On 1/11/2020 at 7:12 PM, John1122 said:

That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night.  There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison. 

I wonder if low level winds whip around the ridge southeast of town. Accelerate a bit per Bernoulli effect? And a little farther off the ground I wonder if ridges nudge winds a little veered relative to below. On the other hand it could be random luck.

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So up there you get snow and tornadoes! Jealous, haha
I wonder if low level winds whip around the ridge southeast of town. Accelerate a bit per Bernoulli effect? And a little farther off the ground I wonder if ridges nudge winds a little veered relative to below. On the other hand it could be random luck.


I 100% believe there’s something that helps low level winds in Monroe and Blount Co with tornadoes. The numbers speak for themselves vs the other mountain counties.


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An even bigger version around the Smokies. 

18 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I 100% believe there’s something that helps low level winds in Monroe and Blount Co with tornadoes. The numbers speak for themselves vs the other mountain counties.

If south or southeast low level winds accelerate around mountains it would enhance low level inflow. Then farther off the ground south to southwest winds could be guided to turn with height due to the direction of the Valley. I'm just speculating on a hypothesis. 

Similar debate is ongoing for central Oklahoma (Moore/Norman) and the southeast facing Canadian River Valley. That's low levels only of course. The Plains can take care of its own mid-levels. In both cases it is hard to prove causation, but correlation is notable. They have tried to model the OK case.

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Enhanced risk for central Mississippi into northwest Alabama! Well Dixie has a funny idea of how to do an overnight rave. Jokes aside, I'd ditch the hatched but 10% might be OK. I'd introduce 30% wind though.

But the HRRR! But the SFO run? OK back to weather. Both versions of the NAM temper things compared to the HRRR. NAM looks believable given all the cloud cover. However the marine warm sector has made it well north in Mississippi. North Alabama is still conditional on precip. 

I actually like the wind fields not pegged out, just seasonably strong. However the low level CAPE lacks. Don't take much at night in Dixie, but it needs to be more than 50. LI looks good because it is above the warm layer aloft. Figure storms can root for a couple Mississippi tornadoes this afternoon. Alabama might get to sleep well with just wind if it does not destabilize in the low levels.

Believe the sounding is a bigger problem than upper level wind directions relative to the boundaries. It's a quasi-lifting boundary not a CF in the risk area. Either way, I think it's mainly wind.

2pm Central Update: South Mississippi supercell rooting on the marine later warm front. Other cells coming out of Louisiana may root in Mississippi.

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3 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

SPC Day 4:

20200209_061656.jpg

Interesting that the SPC includes East TN in the 15% probability of severe weather, while MRX doesn’t seem to be concerned about seeing severe storms on Wednesday in their latest disco.

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I think the SPC Day 4 came out after MRX's morning discussion. Euro/GFS don't seem too crazy about CAPE, but we've seen that happen before then the NAM comes along and starts to pinpoint the higher risk zones. 

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I think the SPC Day 4 came out after MRX's morning discussion. Euro/GFS don't seem too crazy about CAPE, but we've seen that happen before then the NAM comes along and starts to pinpoint the higher risk zones. 


Maybe it’s me but I’ve noticed recently in these winter time outbreaks you don’t necessarily need strong CAPE north of the best dynamics when lines or QLCS’s develop in the warm sector and move into areas with less destabilization to aid, as long as you still have sufficient wind energy. Seems like they will hang on for a couple of hundred miles before the lack of LI’s or SBCAPE start to eat them up. Knoxville has been just outside of the best combined dynamics and we’ve still had some severe wind during the last 2 events. Just a thought


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3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 


Maybe it’s me but I’ve noticed recently in these winter time outbreaks you don’t necessarily need strong CAPE north of the best dynamics when lines or QLCS’s develop in the warm sector and move into areas with less destabilization to aid, as long as you still have sufficient wind energy. Seems like they will hang on for a couple of hundred miles before the lack of LI’s or SBCAPE start to eat them up. Knoxville has been just outside of the best combined dynamics and we’ve still had some severe wind during the last 2 events. Just a thought emoji2369.png


 

 

It won’t take much to cause a lot of problems. The trees are basically sticks in loose mud at this point. 

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It won’t take much to cause a lot of problems. The trees are basically sticks in loose mud at this point. 


That’s a good point


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