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Rjay

Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

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3 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

Who ever is under those death bands is gonna jackpot..

Well yeah, obviously lol. But I mean in place major systems, Nemo, Juno, '16, last March, the models tend to pump out some juicy numbers: 2, 2.5, 3" QPF. It just seems odd to me to have this exceptionally deep low tapping a lot of tropical moisture and even out around eastern NE the models can't seem to get that high. I dunno, maybe it's the seclusion or something...

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Imagine what could have been if this thing was crawling up the coast. That’s the only thing that’s stoping record snows. The track is pretty ideal for coastal areas

Yes :( that's the only limiting factor here.

At least the heaviest snows will be during the day- great for pics and videos!

 

 

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The moderators can choose to delete this post if they want.  But I wanted to just share my observations as a weather enthusiast who loves snow and has lived through some great storms.  So, I am excited just like you all are about the prospects of this storm.  I appreciate all that you all share and have learned a lot from your posts.  I cannot give the scientific analysis that you all give but just going outside right now and seeing what is happening I think that we are going to have a nice storm.  

There is a beautiful moon bow happening right now and it smells like snow and there is the muffle of sound that comes before a storm.  I think this storm may be quite impressive.  I don' t think up here in northern westchester we are going to have amazing snow totals, but it will be powerful.  I hope all enjoy this storm and there are no power outages and damage from it.  Especially with the extreme cold coming after the storm.  Enjoy! Mother nature is awesome to watch and I enjoy watching and learning from you all as we witness it.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

My memory is a little short of stellar but I've noticed in the past that models rarely seem to drastically under-forecast peak liquid in big coastals. More specific to this system, the rapid movement is the biggest limiting factor... on the 3km NAM, the low center travels more than 550 miles between 12z Thursday and 00z Friday. Any location should struggle to see precip for significantly longer than a 12-hour period.

True, but speaking simply from personal experience I can say I've put up some big totals in short duration storms. I did 27" in Jan '11 and that storm snowed for maybe 10 hours. Did 14" last January and that system was in and out in probably 6-7. Obviously whoever gets the banding takes the spoils, but I still would think generally there would be more juice. I'm just wondering if this thing wrings out the majority of it off Delmarva while it's undergoing max intensification and we get left with what's left. Again, I could be totally out in left field. I just think it's curious.

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Well yeah, obviously lol. But I mean in place major systems, Nemo, Juno, '16, last March, the models tend to pump out some juicy numbers: 2, 2.5, 3" QPF. It just seems odd to me to have this exceptionally deep low tapping a lot of tropical moisture and even out around eastern NE the models can't seem to get that high. I dunno, maybe it's the seclusion or something...

Although this thing is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night////

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7 minutes ago, viking70 said:

The moderators can choose to delete this post if they want.  But I wanted to just share my observations as a weather enthusiast who loves snow and has lived through some great storms.  So, I am excited just like you all are about the prospects of this storm.  I appreciate all that you all share and have learned a lot from your posts.  I cannot give the scientific analysis that you all give but just going outside right now and seeing what is happening I think that we are going to have a nice storm.  

There is a beautiful moon bow happening right now and it smells like snow and there is the muffle of sound that comes before a storm.  I think this storm may be quite impressive.  I don' t think up here in northern westchester we are going to have amazing snow totals, but it will be powerful.  I hope all enjoy this storm and there are no power outages and damage from it.  Especially with the extreme cold coming after the storm.  Enjoy! Mother nature is awesome to watch and I enjoy watching and learning from you all as we witness it.  

 

Moon bow?!  Where?  Those are extraordinarily rare....

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1 minute ago, tomcatct said:

Although this think is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night////

I was up in Boston at the time. The only time in my life when I've scored nearly 30" and been jealous of not being elsewhere. My folks in Hamden had a brief period of hail mixed in with that 6" per hr death band! Thankfully I got to experience Feb '15 in all its incomparable magnificence though. Anyway, I digress, and will let you all get back on track. Good luck everyone. I think this thing will have some positive surprises in your hood.

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2 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100

 

I'm in awe.  Just stupid geeked out awe.  

Great outflow on the west side.  Some dry air entrained in to the SE but it looks like new convection trying to wrap around the center.  What pressure did the hunter find?  What is the T score?

 

;)

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4 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

Although this think is moving, we can get some serious totals in a short period of time if it's whiteout snows..happened a few years back in our neck of the woods..had 36" here and up by you in hamden they had like 40 or so...i fell asleep early and missed the real heavy stuff that night////

and that's why I don't like night time snowstorms :( not the best for pics/videos either.

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and that's why I don't like night time snowstorms :( not the best for pics/videos either.

Right on with that..tomorrow morning should be great..good luck!

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3 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

Right on with that..tomorrow morning should be great..good luck!

You too!  DOUBLE DIGITS FOR ALL OF US :)

 

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The powerful jet streak that has been modeled consistently is beginning to take shape over the NE. Huge amounts of lift are created due to the right entrance region of the jet streak, leading to enhanced precipitation and rapid deepening of the LP.

5a4db51f382ca_300mbjet12001318.gif.c055ce3083c81c79ad8e498621b6aee7.gif

 

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