Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is west with precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Since the threat has somewhat increased, can we try to keep things on topic with the storm and not the merits of which sub-furums should be merged and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Please take banter to another thread and/or ignore posters that are not staying on-topic by not replying. Thank you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM wobbled East a hair with surface lp but likely noise at this point. Seeing the more intense banding expanding farther W vs 6Z is enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I agre but I feel this sub is dead other than for obs during events. I feel disenfranchised to the discussion as I watch from the sidelines in the NYC or Mid-Atlantic threads. An obs region specific topic in the forum during events could help IMBY issues. I know this is off topic but it’s just my two cents. I think we’ve seen a lot of good posters leave for other sub forums. There is nothing stopping you from starting a thread. There are many of us who lurk more than post analysis of events (whether due to time factors or due to slowly getting accustomed to utilizing all the models and tools and looking at pbps from others, etc). The vast majority here seem to like winter events although there is also an overlap of that same group when it comes to commenting on/tracking severe events during other times of the year. I know I spent a significant time tracking the major hurricanes over the past summer on the Tropical forum but being exposed to pbps of a variety of models during winter/severe events is informative. We have been there done that with a combined forum back during Eastern and this and our unique topology and climatology always got lost in the noise of everyone else's weather and some of the "lost" posters were due to falling outs with mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Please take banter to another thread and/or ignore posters that are not staying on-topic by not replying. Thank you :-) 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: Since the threat has somewhat increased, can we try to keep things on topic with the storm and not the merits of which sub-furums should be merged and why? Done, I added an OT thread to take the debate elsewhere... Everyone else please take the subforum debate or other OT posts there. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here is my snow map from last night posted at 11 pm. I’m here mainly in this forum and mid Atlantic only problem today my heat broke last night at 845 so it’s 57 in my house waiting for tech now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Last Mt. Holly snow map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Last Mt. Holly snow map - 6:09am...think things have changed a bit. When/how often do they come out? I would like to see an updated one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is a storm weenies dream/nightmare. This was can go so many different ways for so many different reasons. I am in no way qualified for a storm this tight. Time to lean on the few trusted weather sources here and elsewhere. If i am being honest, 5 miles NW of the city, my expectation is about 3"-4". Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: 6:09am...think things have changed a bit. When/how often do they come out? I would like to see an updated one? The 9:24 am AFD has this blurb so they are probably working on it now - In terms of the storm in the short term, new data is starting to come in this morning and this part of the forecast will be updated later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 6:09am...think things have changed a bit. When/how often do they come out? I would like to see an updated one? Knowing their philosophy of trying to avoid whiplash, I suspect they'll wait until 3 to 4 pm, pending other 12z guidance, although they might mention potential changes in an updated forecast discussion before then.... eta - lol, or what Agnes said ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The 9:24 am AFD has this blurb so they are probably working on it now - In terms of the storm in the short term, new data is starting to come in this morning and this part of the forecast will be updated later this morning. I'll be shocked if they don't up the amounts a bit and more western coverage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: Knowing their philosophy of trying to avoid whiplash, I suspect they'll wait until 3 to 4 pm, pending other 12z guidance, although they might mention potential changes in an updated forecast discussion before then.... Sounds logical and perhaps a WSW issued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Knowing their philosophy of trying to avoid whiplash, I suspect they'll wait until 3 to 4 pm, pending other 12z guidance, although they might mention potential changes in an updated forecast discussion before then.... eta - lol, or what Agnes said ^^ 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'll be shocked if they don't up the amounts a bit and more western coverage... IIRC, we got a short-fused WWA for the last event overnight. Perhaps that may come with this (although earlier than just after midnight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: This is a storm weenies dream/nightmare. This was can go so many different ways for so many different reasons. I am in no way qualified for a storm this tight. Time to lean on the few trusted weather sources here and elsewhere. If i am being honest, 5 miles NW of the city, my expectation is about 3"-4". Fingers crossed. 3" to 4" would be great, still gotta watch and wait. Pretty exciting, last evening was a lot of fun seeing things trend the way they have. Gonna be a cold powdery snow with the wind an added bonus if you like blowing and drifting snow (love that phrase!).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 6:09am...think things have changed a bit. When/how often do they come out? I would like to see an updated one? typically updated at 6 am, 11 am, 3-4 pm, and 9 pm. I suspect they will make several updates today as guidance comes in. Expect the next one between 11 and 12 though imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: typically updated at 6 am, 11 am, 3-4 pm, and 9 pm. I suspect they will make several updates today as guidance comes in. Expect the next one between 11 and 12 though imo Ok..so then everyone was correct (Agnes and Kamu) 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS looks good it backed west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WXSIM forecast for NW Chester County using blend of 6z NAM/GFS Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 15, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 19. Wind northeast near calm in the evening, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 19. Wind chill around 3. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: I agree. Agreed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS definitely throwing stuff back west - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So its the American models against everything else it appears. Let's see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: GFS definitely throwing stuff back west - Yep, most certainly and still have a little time to advance further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Newman said: So its the American models against everything else it appears. Let's see how this goes. American and Canadian models. and the Euro/Uk have both trended massively towards the NAM in their last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: American and Canadian models. and the Euro/Uk have both trended massively towards the NAM in their last few runs. The latest NAM and GFS runs (Canadian's too, but not to the extent) look great for further inland folk like me. I think I saw GFS paints 3 inches + for Berks County accounting for ratios. Also, I'm not sure if it was addressed already cause I've been out of the loop this morning, but remember for those near the coast that the winds will likely limit accumulation due to the dendrites being shredded by the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Newman said: The latest NAM and GFS runs (Canadian's too, but not to the extent) look great for further inland folk like me. I think I saw GFS paints 3 inches + for Berks County accounting for ratios. Also, I'm not sure if it was addressed already cause I've been out of the loop this morning, but remember for those near the coast that the winds will likely limit accumulation due to the dendrites being shredded by the wind. You are getting more than Cirrus trust me, 2-4" most likely I am still liking 4" western fringes of SEPA to near 8" by the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Not that it means much because I don't really consider Bill Henley a real Met but an on air personality but totals went down from last nights 6pm broadcast. 4am news: 11am: NBC10/Glenn cranked the totals a bit. from 1-3" in Philly this morn to 2-4" now. And extended west a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Right now my call is 1-3" Lehigh valley with lolli's of 4 and 5", 3-6" south of there to the delaware river with lolli's of 7 or 8", 6-10" with lolli's of 12" from trenton to SNJ. With even the globals shifting towards the precip coming in more west, I think the NAM/RGEM which have led the way, is the blend for right now. RGEM isn't as robust precip wise as the NAM but matches my thinking more. The GFS I think is clearly struggling with the banding and is why precip isn't as heavy towards SNJ. I think the meso's will pick up much better on this which is why you are seeing those big totals in SNJ on them. I'll issue a final call this evening but I am not anticipating many changes. With the trends in the last 24 hours I wouldn't expect to lower amounts but I could see raising them if the NAM/RGEM continue to push that heavy band(deform maybe) more west. Even though the euro and uk haven't ran, I still think a WSW warning should be issued for at least lower bucks/montgomery/philadelphia and north towards mercer county. Tomorrow's commute could be horrible especially if the 1-3 inch forecasts don't change and folks aren't expecting that big of a deal outside of s NJ. Lots of people out on the roads expecting a minor storm getting stuck in a much heavier storm could mean lots of accidents tomorrow. And with the frozen ground, the snow is going to stick immediately no matter how much rock salt is put down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Using Kuchera ratios, both the 12z GFS and 12z GGEM show 4-8” for the Philly area with the most south and east. Will the Euro continue to be on its own for little to nothing for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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