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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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I thought today was going to be fairly quiet on the snowfall front, but we’ve got some fairly vigorous snowfall going on here in Burlington right now, and there’s an obvious push of moisture coming into the area on the radar:

 

18JAN18A.gif

 

I can see some big flakes at home on the J&E Productions Live Web Cam as well, so the moisture is getting to the spine.  Based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion, this could be some Lake Ontario moisture, but they may discuss it a bit more since we’re actually getting a bit of accumulation here in Burlington.

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2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I thought today was going to be fairly quiet on the snowfall front, but we’ve got some fairly vigorous snowfall going on here in Burlington right now, and there’s an obvious push of moisture coming into the area on the radar:

 

18JAN18A.gif

 

I can see some big flakes at home on the J&E Productions Live Web Cam as well, so the moisture is getting to the spine.  Based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion, this could be some Lake Ontario moisture, but they may discuss it a bit more since we’re actually getting a bit of accumulation here in Burlington.

 

The BTV NWS did note this morning’s snow in their most recent discussion – it does look like it was lake-effect moisture so I’ll put any accumulations at our site under that event.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

940 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 940 AM EST Thursday...Increased pops through late morning/early afternoon across the southern SLV/Dacks and into portions of the Champlain Valley/central VT to account for weak lake effect snow showers advecting east across these areas. Models are not handling current light activity well, though most recent HRRR output has a so-so handle on things showing modest WSW transport flow of 20-30 kts at 925 mb so leaned in its direction. Any acculumations will remain light and generally less than 1 inch save perhaps areas to the west of KSLK in portions of far southern Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties in NY. The rest of the forecast regarding temperatures and general cloud cover remain on track. Have a great day.

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JSpin we've had persistent flurries in town on this side but with partly sunny skies.  Very smooth downslope cloud on the east side that clears to partly sunny not far from the Spine.

The Spine is under that smooth cloud...downslope wave on the east side giving some blue skies with occasional flurries.

 KzU25x7.jpg

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

We didn’t get as much snow today at the house as I saw in Burlington, but there was a tenth of an inch of fluff on the boards.  There is the chance for a bit more into tomorrow, although it’s expected to be focused in the higher elevations so we’ll have to see if anything makes it down here.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 24.1 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

JSpin we've had persistent flurries in town on this side but with partly sunny skies.  Very smooth downslope cloud on the east side that clears to partly sunny not far from the Spine.

The Spine is under that smooth cloud...downslope wave on the east side giving some blue skies with occasional flurries.

 

Yeah, I was seeing it here on our web cam, and they’ve been around much of the evening as well – no real accumulation though.

 

We’ve had snow falling (even if not 100% continuously) since early Tuesday, but it’s still not technically “days and days of snow”, because doesn’t that have to be at least four days?  “We” (because apparently that’s how you’re supposed to state it) sort of LOL at that concept though because how often does that even happen down where all the hullabaloo was raised?  The term smacks of hyperbole.

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6 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, I was seeing it here on our web cam, and they’ve been around much of the evening as well – no real accumulation though.

 

We’ve had snow falling (even if not 100% continuously) since early Tuesday, but it’s still not technically “days and days of snow”, because doesn’t that have to be at least four days?  “We” (because apparently that’s how you’re supposed to state it) sort of LOL at that concept though because how often does that even happen down where all the hullabaloo was raised?  The term smacks of hyperbole.

Least effective days of snow ever. 

I can't quite decide if I am happy this weekend is looking colder than prev. forecast. 33 and cloudy isn't really very much fun. At least 40 and sunny would warm up the trails and allow a natural spring condition smoothing process to occur. 33 just kinda crisps them.....

 

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1 hour ago, adk said:

Least effective days of snow ever. 

I can't quite decide if I am happy this weekend is looking colder than prev. forecast. 33 and cloudy isn't really very much fun. At least 40 and sunny would warm up the trails and allow a natural spring condition smoothing process to occur. 33 just kinda crisps them.....

 

Would help if the Euro is right Monday into Tuesday

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3 hours ago, adk said:

Least effective days of snow ever. 

I can't quite decide if I am happy this weekend is looking colder than prev. forecast. 33 and cloudy isn't really very much fun. At least 40 and sunny would warm up the trails and allow a natural spring condition smoothing process to occur. 33 just kinda crisps them.....

 

I’m right there with you – I was kind of looking forward to some “40 F and sunny” turns on terrain that softened, at least in the context of where the conditions are.

 

Personally, I think it’s actually been a weird season thus far; I’ve sort of been waiting for one of those usual periods we have in the Northern Greens where things come together and conditions simply take off, but I haven’t felt it quite yet.  The timing of things (surface conditions, powder, temperatures, etc.) just hasn’t come together, so the windows of greatness, or even near greatness have seemed relatively small.  There’s no doubt that conditions were decent to even great at times in December, but that ridiculous cold sort of ruined the potential for some primo days in my opinion.  The pack is generally in fine shape (and actually quite bomber thanks to Winter Storm Hunter), so all we really need is a 1 to 2 footer without that ridiculous arctic cold to hit a window.

 

windowofopportunity.jpg

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0.2 overnight and more flurries this morning. "Days and days of snow" :D

This brings us to 87.3" for the season to date, which is ahead of last year by a pretty good margin, although we were about to enter a very snowy period at this point last year. We'll see what February brings, we definitely have the potential to top last year, but it will take some work 

image.png.e402a64bf394edfa80a36585c3b8b7ff.png

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5 hours ago, adk said:

Least effective days of snow ever. 

I can't quite decide if I am happy this weekend is looking colder than prev. forecast. 33 and cloudy isn't really very much fun. At least 40 and sunny would warm up the trails and allow a natural spring condition smoothing process to occur. 33 just kinda crisps them.....

 

you've been a little glass half empty recently.  I'm thankful for anything that isnt 40+ and r%^&n. 

heading up this afternoon to get new ski boots and break them in.  doesnt happen often but getting new boots is fraught with anxiety for me.

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1 hour ago, Hitman said:

you've been a little glass half empty recently.  I'm thankful for anything that isnt 40+ and r%^&n. 

heading up this afternoon to get new ski boots and break them in.  doesnt happen often but getting new boots is fraught with anxiety for me.

If you knew me you would know that if I get to "half-empty" that is a win. 

I actually think this winter has been outstanding for skiing so far. The period from about November 20 to that last real warm up was really very good. I think the best conditions were confined to upper elevations for sure and fleeting but when caught, they were incredible. 

What boots are you getting?

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29 minutes ago, adk said:

If you knew me you would know that if I get to "half-empty" that is a win. 

I actually think this winter has been outstanding for skiing so far. The period from about November 20 to that last real warm up was really very good. I think the best conditions were confined to upper elevations for sure and fleeting but when caught, they were incredible. 

What boots are you getting?

before the cutter, best "early" skiing in a decade.  I forget last year had the highest ever snowfall season total at Whiteface but I think it was because that winter was 2nd half loaded and I tend to do more skiing earlier in the year.
 

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1 hour ago, Hitman said:

you've been a little glass half empty recently.  I'm thankful for anything that isnt 40+ and r%^&n. 

heading up this afternoon to get new ski boots and break them in.  doesnt happen often but getting new boots is fraught with anxiety for me.

I have a recommendation... I've been using Apex boots. It's a soft boot with an exoskeleton that keeps your foot stable. They have been nothing short of amazing. It's like wearing shoes. Would never go to anything else at this point (and no, I don't work for Apex and get no commission) :)

 

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8 hours ago, adk said:

If you knew me you would know that if I get to "half-empty" that is a win. 

I actually think this winter has been outstanding for skiing so far. The period from about November 20 to that last real warm up was really very good. I think the best conditions were confined to upper elevations for sure and fleeting but when caught, they were incredible. 

What boots are you getting?

It comes with our business (you’re a trial lawyer, iirc?).  

agreed.  I was skiing woods with great base and snow Xmas time.  That is rare.  And they were in great shape.  And we’ve had one thaw as of 1/18, that is remarkable in and of itself.

as far as boots, either the Nordica strider or Salomon qst.  They’re both alpine boots with walk mode.  I skin maybe a couple of times a year if I’m lucky, ( I’m no jspin) so wanted the capability but more important I’m not giving up anything downhill.  Not easy getting boots especially when u live 250 miles from the bootfitter and I have relatively big feet that is very limited stock.  I had to have them order these over the holidays and they just came in.  Need to break them in and get them right before heading out to bc for presidents week.  

Fwiw- I was in the boot shop before New Years when it was super cold and guy came in with a new pair of atomics where the plastic split.  They said they had gotten a bunch of them like that.  I’ve never seen anything like.  The plastic completely cracked and failed.

 

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8 hours ago, Hitman said:

It comes with our business (you’re a trial lawyer, iirc?).  

agreed.  I was skiing woods with great base and snow Xmas time.  That is rare.  And they were in great shape.  And we’ve had one thaw as of 1/18, that is remarkable in and of itself.

as far as boots, either the Nordica strider or Salomon qst.  They’re both alpine boots with walk mode.  I skin maybe a couple of times a year if I’m lucky, ( I’m no jspin) so wanted the capability but more important I’m not giving up anything downhill.  Not easy getting boots especially when u live 250 miles from the bootfitter and I have relatively big feet that is very limited stock.  I had to have them order these over the holidays and they just came in.  Need to break them in and get them right before heading out to bc for presidents week.  

Fwiw- I was in the boot shop before New Years when it was super cold and guy came in with a new pair of atomics where the plastic split.  They said they had gotten a bunch of them like that.  I’ve never seen anything like.  The plastic completely cracked and failed.

 

Yes, my type of lawyering is low on positivity. 

I just got new boots too...same story. Had to order over the holidays and wait for them to come in as they sold out EVERYWHERE of my size. Apparently the funding model for gear companies changed after the crash.  Now they only get loans to make one run of gear. If that sells well, they get another round of cash and make a second run of gear.  

Anyway, it's balmy 35 outside he condo right now. With the speed of this WAA I wonder if a little spot of sun doesn't spike BTV way higher than the 40s. Like 51 -53 range today...

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Top couple inches very sticky at noontime today, heavy heavy snowshoes.  (Even heavier with a 50 lb dog standing on the tails.)  Crust was occasionally breakable, too - not as nice hoofing as I'd hoped, but still a good time in the woods.

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On 1/19/2018 at 12:41 PM, qg_omega said:

before the cutter, best "early" skiing in a decade.  I forget last year had the highest ever snowfall season total at Whiteface but I think it was because that winter was 2nd half loaded and I tend to do more skiing earlier in the year.
 

Last year early season skiing was off the charts IMO.  Maybe it was localized to NVT but we were almost 100% by mid-December.  All the front steeps on natural snow and skiing well in the second week of December.  Patrol couldn't open them fast enough.

I do remember Stowe had the most open terrain in the East for a solid 2 weeks there.  It was like a 26" dense upslope event that got it rolling.  First night was 6" of pure paste above 2000ft with nothing at 1500ft, then it unloaded the following night with graupel and snow. 

Last year will be tough to beat and it's one of my favorites.  The 375" at High Road plot or 3000ft elevation is telling.  131" this year to date there.  Have to triple it to get to last year.  

Then there was the 108" in 22 days from about this time of year into mid-Feb.  every single day it was like welp, looks like it did it again...another 5" or 8" or whatever.  

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Last year early season skiing was off the charts IMO.  Maybe it was localized to NVT but we were almost 100% by mid-December.  All the front steeps on natural snow and skiing well in the second week of December.  Patrol couldn't open them fast enough.

I do remember Stowe had the most open terrain in the East for a solid 2 weeks there.  It was like a 26" dense upslope event that got it rolling.  First night was 6" of pure paste above 2000ft with nothing at 1500ft, then it unloaded the following night with graupel and snow. 

Last year will be tough to beat and it's one of my favorites.  The 375" at High Road plot or 3000ft elevation is telling.  131" this year to date there.  Have to triple it to get to last year.  

Then there was the 108" in 22 days from about this time of year into mid-Feb.  every single day it was like welp, looks like it did it again...another 5" or 8" or whatever.  

100 inches this year and trails without snowmaking are brown :(

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27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

100 inches this year and trails without snowmaking are brown :(

Wow that's terrible that trails are brown right now... where are you talking about?  I thought Whiteface got a decent storm at the end of the thaw?

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It was an awesome ski day...this morning was just so nice to ski good snow without freezing to death.
 
I skied Smuggs yesterday and it was decent but a bit icy. I hope everyone is ready for another crapfest early in the work week.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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12 hours ago, adk said:

Yes, my type of lawyering is low on positivity. 

I just got new boots too...same story. Had to order over the holidays and wait for them to come in as they sold out EVERYWHERE of my size. Apparently the funding model for gear companies changed after the crash.  Now they only get loans to make one run of gear. If that sells well, they get another round of cash and make a second run of gear.  

Anyway, it's balmy 35 outside he condo right now. With the speed of this WAA I wonder if a little spot of sun doesn't spike BTV way higher than the 40s. Like 51 -53 range today...

Ended up getting the salomon qst pro 130.  Fingers crossed.  Test drive tomorrow.  

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Last year early season skiing was off the charts IMO.  Maybe it was localized to NVT but we were almost 100% by mid-December.  All the front steeps on natural snow and skiing well in the second week of December.  Patrol couldn't open them fast enough.

I do remember Stowe had the most open terrain in the East for a solid 2 weeks there.  It was like a 26" dense upslope event that got it rolling.  First night was 6" of pure paste above 2000ft with nothing at 1500ft, then it unloaded the following night with graupel and snow. 

Last year will be tough to beat and it's one of my favorites.  The 375" at High Road plot or 3000ft elevation is telling.  131" this year to date there.  Have to triple it to get to last year.  

Then there was the 108" in 22 days from about this time of year into mid-Feb.  every single day it was like welp, looks like it did it again...another 5" or 8" or whatever.  

Last winter was really a hockey game winter. There were three distinct periods that I remember. Early season - Mid Nov. to early Jan. was VERY good. Jan. had an inversion, some weird rain and ice around this week. Then from like the 28th through Feb. 17 was insane. Snowed like 6" every single night. Stake got to 100". Then there was an epic melt with temps hitting 70 in BTV the lsast week of feb. Things were looking very much "done" and then Stella rolled in.  

If I am being honest, I think this season's Nov - holiday period period was better than last years. Can't say the same about about the last three weeks however....or the next week per the GFS. 

What is interesting to me is that we really only have another 70" of snow left for an "average" winter.  If that were spread out over Feb. March and early April, it would be pretttttty grim.  

 

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