wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lol this is one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lol this is one run Any weenie maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Any weenie maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So i guess the point is both the GFS and king Euro are showing something in that timeframe...that alone gives me hope that the Gfs was on to something as of yesterday for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 this gets a double weenie! and the run still has a few days to go, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That a gfs Winnie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I know it' euro was wondering if it's smoking what gfs was last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 All I can say about the Euro is Wow!! Haha.. I think I would be satisfied with that :). Main take away is LES Tuesday/Wednesday and synoptic possibilities end of the week. I just hope one of the 2 work out. I think I would take the New Years storm over the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Few inches of concrete still left here with lots of huge piles. Pretty surprised most didn't melt with that warmup, high winds, and high dews. Should be a fun next two weeks. Think Rochester to Watertown towards Syracuse get highest totals by far the next 10-14 days. I wasn't with Devin on last pattern and was correct got 55" in 2 weeks. However, I am with Devin on this one for Southtowns north, not looking to optimistic for LES for Metro Buffalo. Also with the temps. coming lake Erie will be frozen by mid January, possibly sooner. I think we get 10-15" the next 2 weeks, but nothing like the pattern would suggest. There is a possibility of a big synoptic system in the long range that could save the day. KBUF mentioned the big SW flow events to early in their discussion, the longwave through shifted about 500 miles east the last few days which isn't as conducive to SW flow events. Wouldn't be surprised if some locations from Fulton to Redfield get 5-6' of snow next 15 days. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Lots of time but potential is there to shut down by state. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 One thing I do notice about euro is it' terrible with lake effect accumulations west of Rochester on lakeshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 My wife just told me she didn’t think I could physically handle not sleeping for a week if it snowed that much. I told her lots of coffee and conversations with you guys. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lots of time but potential is there to shut down by state. Lol I got 50” in 10 days and state didn’t shut down. Takes 2014 type event to shut down the stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The lake effect has more potential than the coastal at the moment, that’s where my focus is at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I got 50” in 10 days and state didn’t shut down. Takes 2014 type event to shut down the stuff Yes exactly, and a widespread 70-90” in 3 days isn’t going to happen again anytime soon even localized let alone the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The lake effect has more potential than the coastal at the moment, that’s where my focus is at.. True and it’s only 3-4 days away. Euro had it a bit further north this run on Tuesday. Can’t wait for hi-res models to start weighing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yes exactly, and a widespread 70-90” in 3 days isn’t going to happen again anytime soon even localized let alone the whole state. While the chances are 99.99% you won't see statewide accums like that, with recent events starting from 2006 with October surprise, to snowvember with some areas getting 100 inches in three days im not ever going to say 100% never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Snowing at a pretty good clip again. Nice flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The trend has been to keep winds on a more northerly trajectory. Which explains why buf disco interest has fallen off... With regards to LES. Our events (around Roc) usually have dryness issues to overcome. Storms to our east will mitigate that nonsense. Looks like fun. Heres to sleepless nights! And a touch of alcohol poisoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Man that slug of moisture down across the SE is vast with a lot of juice! What also amazes me is the fact that this next wave goes from EWV to CNH in 6 hrs, lol. But with such an easterly track one would think, with us being on the N-NW of the SLP from start to finish, we'd see snow, but that is not the case, as we rain, lol, gotta love the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Latest afd from KBUF states low end advisory accums for the CWA for Christmas eve and potentially warning amounts east if lake Ontario due to a trowel. I believe low end advisory is 4 to 7 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Latest afd from KBUF states low end advisory accums for the CWA for Christmas eve and potentially warning amounts east if lake Ontario due to a trowel. I believe low end advisory is 4 to 7 inches? I believe low end advisory is 2-4” or 3-5” 4-7 is definitely higher end advisory not that it matters. I think 2-4” might be only if any sleet or freezing rain are also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 What is the best short term hi res model to look at for LES? Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I believe low end advisory is 2-4” or 3-5” 4-7 is definitely higher end advisory not that it matters. I think 2-4” might be only if any sleet or freezing rain are also possible. BUF seems to always overperform on these clippers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, swva said: What is the best short term hi res model to look at for LES? Opinions? RGEM+NAM 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, swva said: What is the best short term hi res model to look at for LES? Opinions? RGEM and NAM 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: RGEM+NAM 3KM lol didn't even read your post when I posted mine. If you can believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 The lake effect parameters are much better off Ontario then Erie. Don't even think ski country gets a big event out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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