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All I can say about the Euro is Wow!!  Haha..  I think I would be satisfied with that :).  Main take away is LES Tuesday/Wednesday and synoptic possibilities end of the week.  I just hope one of the 2 work out.  I think I would take the New Years storm over the LES.  

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19 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Few inches of concrete still left here with lots of huge piles. Pretty surprised most didn't melt with that warmup, high winds, and high dews. Should be a fun next two weeks. Think Rochester to Watertown towards Syracuse get highest totals by far the next 10-14 days. I wasn't with Devin on last pattern and was correct got 55" in 2 weeks. However, I am with Devin on this one for Southtowns north, not looking to optimistic for LES for Metro Buffalo. Also with the temps. coming lake Erie will be frozen by mid January, possibly sooner. I think we get 10-15" the next 2 weeks, but nothing like the pattern would suggest. There is a possibility of a big synoptic system in the long range that could save the day. KBUF mentioned the big SW flow events to early in their discussion, the longwave through shifted about 500 miles east the last few days which isn't as conducive to SW flow events. Wouldn't be surprised if some locations from Fulton to Redfield get 5-6' of snow next 15 days. :snowing:

Hi 

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The lake effect has more potential than the coastal at the moment, that’s where my focus is at..

True and it’s only 3-4 days away.  Euro had it a bit further north this run on Tuesday.  Can’t wait for hi-res models to start weighing in

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yes exactly, and a widespread 70-90” in 3 days isn’t going to happen again anytime soon even localized let alone the whole state. 

While the chances are 99.99% you won't see statewide accums like that, with recent events starting from 2006 with October surprise, to snowvember with some areas getting 100 inches in three days im not ever going to say 100% never.

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The trend has been to keep winds on a more northerly trajectory. Which explains why buf disco interest has fallen off... With regards to LES. 

Our events (around Roc) usually have dryness issues to overcome. Storms to our east will mitigate that nonsense. Looks like fun. 

Heres to sleepless nights! And a touch of alcohol poisoning. 

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Man that slug of moisture down across the SE is vast with a lot of juice! What also amazes me is the fact that this next wave goes from EWV to CNH in 6 hrs, lol. But with such an easterly track one would think, with us being on the N-NW of the SLP from start to finish, we'd see snow, but that is not the case, as we rain, lol, gotta love the weather!

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Latest afd from KBUF states low end advisory accums for the CWA for Christmas eve and potentially warning amounts east if lake Ontario due to a trowel. I believe low end advisory is 4 to 7 inches?

I believe low end advisory is 2-4” or 3-5” 4-7 is definitely higher end advisory not that it matters. I think 2-4” might be only if any sleet or freezing rain are also possible. 

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I believe low end advisory is 2-4” or 3-5” 4-7 is definitely higher end advisory not that it matters. I think 2-4” might be only if any sleet or freezing rain are also possible. 

BUF seems to always overperform on these clippers..

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