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psuhoffman

December 8/9 wave

991 posts in this topic

Let's discuss it in here since it's not long range anymore and even if it's not likely going to end well clogging up the long range thread with 5000 posts about a storm 2-3 days away won't help. 

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I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Just wait...this is gonna bring it back!

Reverse psychology and stuff.

If not people can come after me. I can take it. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just wait...this is gonna bring it back!

Reverse psychology and stuff.

Nah, it's not reverse psychology. The storm just needed it's own thread to be respected enough. If it's not treated as its own event, it won't preform like a real snow event

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Just now, Cobalt said:

I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before

Never surrender.

January 2000!!!!!

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18z GEFS seems to have more members NW, but still has slightly lower snow/precip totals. I'd say on the pain scale, it's a 1-2/10. painscalefaces.jpg.18ccd7e5374ee890a8ce98dcae36a9e4.jpg

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Our buddy the Navgem at 18z  is definitely west , stronger and slower. Much stronger with the southern vort. H5 looks similar to the Ukie  fwiw. 

It seems to be missing some panels on TT. lol

Like trying to figure out the UKIE

Capture.JPG

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Our buddy the Navgem at 18z  is definitely west , stronger and slower. Much stronger with the southern vort. H5 looks similar to the Ukie  fwiw. 

Slow and steady for the storm wins the race

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If not people can come after me. I can take it. 

We know it’s not your fault. 

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z GEFS seems to have more members NW, but still has slightly lower snow/precip totals. I'd say on the pain scale, it's a 1-2/10. painscalefaces.jpg.18ccd7e5374ee890a8ce98dcae36a9e4.jpg

This could be tied to the panic index

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Just now, Interstate said:

It seems to be missing some panels on TT

Capture.JPG

It wanted to fit in with the people in here that seem to be missing some marbles. 

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I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't.  No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. 

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Just now, Interstate said:

Problem is two major models say NO

Shhh. Those models mean nothing. It's in the weather weenie rule to always to trust the model that shows the most snow.

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Problem is two major models say NO

I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money.  If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't.  No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. 

I give you points for attitude!  I always fear a fail until I can actually see the system in real time and see how it's progressing. I don't trust the models. But that's what makes this so much fun. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money.  If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. 

Back when models showed both the coastal and clipper had a chance for us, I figured max potential was like 2”.

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10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

It seems to be missing some panels on TT. lol

Like trying to figure out the UKIE

Capture.JPG

Just look at h5.  It'll tell you all you need to know verbatim..looks nice 

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I figured the Navgem drops .84" qpf off the 18z run imby. I took a second look at the legend and it is the average mm that falls per hour during a 6 hour period. So basically, multiply 6 times the amount corresponding to the color in the legend to get the total qpf in mm for that 6-hour period, then multiply that times .4 for inches.

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25 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What happened when the December new thread was started...  It went downhill from there

It's already in the valley.

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17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z GEFS ensemble yesterday vs 18z GEFS ensemble today

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14.thumb.png.c45bffff375231ae671f43fb7658023a.png

18z GEFS today

5a2888c86140e_gefs_snow_ens_washdc_14(1).thumb.png.5cf30648e677ab1fe450cad161515c7f.png

I see more blues/grays. We take

That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. 

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Just now, Negnao said:

That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. 

Oh. I guess a 5-6 on the pain scale is more needed

 

painscalefaces (1).jpg

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