MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NWS shooting for the stars. Maybe they are taking into account some crazy high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 52 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NWS shooting for the stars. Maybe they are taking into account some crazy high ratios? It say 20:1 on that chart, but it looks like 10:1. For instance the GFS has around 3.5" the past two runs with a kuchera ratio of 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 AGCI'll certainly take 4 inches after Sunday night's disappointment in my area.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Latest NAM drops about .2 inches of liquid. If ratios are as good as they are hyping we could see 2-4 easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Latest NAM drops about .2 inches of liquid. If ratios are as good as they are hyping we could see 2-4 easily. It doesn't seem like there's much lift within the dendrite growth zone, so I doubt we exceed 15:1. Maybe 13-14:1 on average, but I'm not exactly a ratios expert (or an expert of any kind for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The gfs is a total, complete, epic failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 hours ago, Rd9108 said: I think it goes further east. Triple phase of the jet stream is hard to make work perfectly. With no blocking in the Atlantic to slow down the flow its unlikely perfect timing will make up for it. Trend this winter has been for medium range threats to trend weaker and more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The gfs is a total, complete, epic failure. For what? Still looks like 2-3 over the weekend to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: For what? Still looks like 2-3 over the weekend to me. For tomorrow night. I’d be surprised to see a coating based off that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 0z Roundup (based on Kuchera) Canadian: 4.5" RGEM: 4.4" GFS: 3.5" NAM 12 km: 2.5" Nam 3km: 2.1" Average: 3.4" (includes snow showers into Sunday, generally accounting for about .5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Don't see any reason why it won't be 2-4" area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 0z Roundup (based on Kuchera) Canadian: 4.5" RGEM: 4.4" GFS: 3.5" NAM 12 km: 2.5" Nam 3km: 2.1" Average: 3.4" (includes snow showers into Sunday, generally accounting for about .5")Nice work. I’ll take these numbers!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NAM has ticked up slightly in the 06z and 12z compared to the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The hires NAM is showing some snow squalls Saturday evening. As usual, more likely to be intense further north: And support from the parameter https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017122912/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.pn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Soundings look better for dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 57 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM has ticked up slightly in the 06z and 12z compared to the 00z Yeah, looks good. A solid . 2 for most of us now with some hints of a little more for areas that get under some banding off the lakes with a period of dual lake fetch over Huron and Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Soundings look better for dendrites So what exactly do you look for in the sounding for good growth? Is it just seeing the dew point and temperature very close within the dgz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Been getting a very light snow all morning, almost like a mist, but ground starting to whiten up with nary a flake going to waste on the Frozen solid ground. I was out popper scooping the yard and it was like mining diamonds, had to chip away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: So what exactly do you look for in the sounding for good growth? Is it just seeing the dew point and temperature very close within the dgz? As I undertand it, the yellow bars (omega) indicates lift. So you want the highest omega to line up with the DGZ, as well as to be saturated. It looks like the most snow growth is a bit higher than the DGZ so not quite ideal (and this was the best looking hour). I'm not sure exactly how far down the column snow actually forms in this case either, as a heavier band can come through and saturate the whole column, and I think there can be precip. when not entirely saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Been getting a very light snow all morning, almost like a mist, but ground starting to whiten up with nary a flake going to waste on the Frozen solid ground. I was out popper scooping the yard and it was like mining diamonds, had to chip away lol. lol...I was doing the same thing yesterday. It had been a while since I ventured out to do that dirty deed in this cold. Yes, getting a misty, very light snow with the sun shining. We got a dusting yesterday morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I’m surprised no WWA yet due to high ratios-is 3” not the criteria any longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: I’m surprised no WWA yet due to high ratios-is 3” not the criteria any longer? Lately they've been weird like that, not wanting to commit to anything until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 55 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: I’m surprised no WWA yet due to high ratios-is 3” not the criteria any longer? I believe there is also a time component like 3 or more inches in a 12 hour period? This will be a fairly drawn out affair so maybe that is partially why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 26 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I believe there is also a time component like 3 or more inches in a 12 hour period? This will be a fairly drawn out affair so maybe that is partially why. It seems like they are more likely to issue an advisory if the majority of the snow comes during heavily-commuted times. Heck.. I got one a couple weeks ago and we weren't projected to see anything close to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Ratios set at 25:1. I think this is very possible with temps any where from 18°-12° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 49 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Ratios set at 25:1. I think this is very possible with temps any where from 18°-12° So that would mean .2 inches of liquid would yield like 5 inches but minus 1 or 2 due to virga and possible compaction/light rates. 2-4 seems pretty doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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