October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[MJO812]

NJ , immediate south shore of NYC and LI

[MJO812]

40+ mph gusts for a long period of time for the NYC area with 1.50 inches of rain with a lot more to the west of the area.

[bluewave]

A key portion of the Euro forecast is the absorption of a chunk of 93L's energy by the new low to the north. The new low rapidly bombs out to to near 972 mb by 6z Monday.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Clearly 93L matters in terms of getting a decent storm vs a powerful one. 

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A key portion of the Euro forecast is the absorption of a chunk of 93L's energy by the new low to the north. The new low rapidly bombs out to to near 972 mb by 6z Monday.

 

 

 

Very skeptical 93 moves fast enough to get absorbed, harkens back to the extent of the trough digging 

[purduewx80]

it gets absorbed if the convection and mid- to upper-level circulations get sheared away. the 00Z EPS and 12Z Euro make slightly more sense to me right now than the micro-canes we continue to see on various guidance. 

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very skeptical 93 moves fast enough to get absorbed, harkens back to the extent of the trough digging 

93L at the surface lags behind near Miami 12z Sunday while the new low to the north absorbs the sheared off energy and moisture. Wild stuff can happen when tropical energy and negative tilt troughs meet. Add the record breaking WAR and SST's for this time of year and you have quite an interesting high octaine mix of ingredients.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

EPS Members

SNJ
 

[NJwx85]

EPS and the OP are in lockstep, it really doesn't matter what the other models are showing when these two are in close agreement.

[MJO812]

Sandy track on the EPS 

Sub 980 looks likely but very strong winds and rain.

 

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sandy's pressure is still so mind boggling and such a massive anomaly. Even the hurricane prone States of the gulf couldn't compete. 

You can see the 1991 Halloween storm over Minnesota. At least, that's what I assume those low pressure anomalies in the Upper Midwest are from. 

Not too many Gulf hurricanes in October. It's much more likely to see them in September. By late October, cold fronts start to cool the Gulf.

[NJwx85]

This NAM run should put the last of the skeptics to bed.

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

EPS and the OP are in lockstep, it really doesn't matter what the other models are showing when these two are in close agreement.

Eps follows the Euro with the upgrade, very rare they are different these days

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Eps follows the Euro with the upgrade, very rare they are different these days

Is this noreaster ?

Everything is shifting towards the Euro.

Get your booties ready.

[NJwx85]

Low 980's landfall into Western Long Island on the 18z NAM with the primary surface low. Greatest precip is just to the NW of that low track. The upper levels are starting to look very Euro esque. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This NAM run should put the last of the skeptics to bed.

NAM is well SE of Montauk, leaves the tropical low well behind.  This makes much more sense synoptically than the Euro

[Morris]

 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM is well SE of Montauk

Please do us all a favor and just go away. 

[qg_omega]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Please do us all a favor and just go away. 

It's an very spread out pressure field, this run is not impressive and much different than the Euro

[NJwx85]

Just now, qg_omega said:

It's an very spread out pressure field, this run is not impressive and much different than the Euro

This isn't hard, the low closer to Long Island absorbs the tropical low.

[qg_omega]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

This isn't hard, the low closer to Long Island absorbs the tropical low.

The tropical low is well southeast of North Carolina

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The tropical low is well southeast of North Carolina

That's because it splits the energy while it's near Florida with most of it phasing into the trough, however it does leave a piece behind like the GFS shows. It's really irrelevant in the grand scheme of things because the main show is with that main surface low over New England.

[NJwx85]

4-5"+ locally

[forkyfork]

with the smaller convective lows present we may not be able to iron out the final details until saturday night/early sunday

[psv88]

As i said, a 40-50 mph rainstorm is likely on the cards, and Upton agrees. 

 

odels are in good agreement that full latitude longwave trough
extending through the Mississippi Valley Sun morning becomes
negatively tilted as it pivots towards the Mid Atlantic coast,
continuing into New England and SE Canada on Monday. At the
sfc, a cold front advancing towards the area will pull deep
layer tropical moisture up from the south with low pressure
intensifying near the Mid Atlantic coast. Uncertainty remains
with the low track and strength which would result in differing
impacts across the local area. Increasing SE winds develop on
Sun although strongest winds are expected to hold off until late
Sun night/Mon as the system departs. At this time, only seeing
the potential for wind advsy, although damaging winds are a
possibility, especially E of the low. The other potential
hazard will be fresh water flooding. Moderate to heavy rain is
expected to develop across the area on Sun and continue through
Sun night before tapering off. Guidance has been wavering with
amounts and the location of the axis but the potential for 2-3
inches with locally higher amounts of rainfall exists. It`s
still a bit early for any headlines, especially with the
uncertainty, so based on collaboration with surrounding offices
will hold off on any flood or wind headlines.

Winds diminish Mon aftn/eve as the low lifts through eastern
Canada. High pres then builds to the south with dry and fair
weather into Wed. Another frontal system then approaches for the
latter half of the week.

 

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn't be so quick to discount the possibility that some portion of the region may realize high wind warnings if a scenario closer to the Euro plays out.

I think the east end of LI could gust to 60, the system is just too disjointed at our latitude for a high impact wind event, 988 wont do it for hurricane force winds

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn't be so quick to discount the possibility that some portion of the region may realize high wind warnings if a scenario closer to the Euro plays out.

some of those eps members would result in widespread power outages

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I think the east end of LI could gust to 60, the system is just too disjointed at our latitude for a high impact wind event, 988 wont do it for hurricane force winds

Depends on if the Euro is correct with 972 mb or not.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I think the east end of LI could gust to 60, the system is just too disjointed at our latitude for a high impact wind event, 988 wont do it for hurricane force winds

Agreed the pressure field is also very broad

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

some of those eps members would result in widespread power outages

A large cluster of EPS members are sub 980 mb at our latitude.