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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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For what it’s worth, it appears that the NAM is handling the current temps better than the other models.  It’s down to 41 in Bentonville (NAM forecast is 42.  HRRR is 44.  
Maybe it isn’t that big of a deal though. 

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I honestly don’t remember the last time I was under a winter storm watch. This feels weird 

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Canadian picking something up on the 12th. GFS had it there a couple of days ago.

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Something wrong here SGF still calling for 4”-6” for the metro less than 24 hours until the event. It just can’t be..:or can it???

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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z NAM a bit concerning for temps. More sleet and freezing rain showing up. 

HRRR had a big sleet storm for just south of the OKc meto area as the system starts to move in.

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10 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

Something wrong here SGF still calling for 4”-6” for the metro less than 24 hours until the event. It just can’t be..:or can it???

If you believe the 12Z HRRR then it's not out of the question.

hrrr-conus-missouri-total_snow_10to1-0947200.png

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There are convective elements with that glob of moisture. Whoever is cold enough to snow at all levels will get walloped just north of the sleet line. 

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16 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z NAM a bit concerning for temps. More sleet and freezing rain showing up. 

It is running about 2 degrees too warm at the surface already though. Will be interesting to watch as the day goes along. 

 

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Getting increasingly concerned that the strongest low-mid level FGEN and vertical ascent may set up right over the I-44 corridor in OK and N TX with this. Someone who stays cold enough is going to see 12-18”, which, for here, is crippling.

With that said, the 3 km NAM seems stubbornly persistent in its idea of really suffocating the band before anything really gets going.

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The 12km NAM appears to be the closest with surface temps for the Springfield metro so far. 

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4 minutes ago, lokee said:

12z Canadian 

sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Still continues to show very little sleet/fz rain at all versus the other models.  
 

And it shifted very slightly SE versus 00z run.  

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Surface temps are going to be close. Tulsa is at it's peak of snow and at 33?? YIKES! We need these temps to come down or it's going to limit totals A LOT!

12Z HRRR

image.png.0f730831da16aec42e6f87e4f3f74b69.pngimage.png.34a77463d9d106f2b441cbcb3fd16e16.png

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Just now, ouamber said:

So, is this ahead of schedule?

I tried to pull it off the mesonet site and it gave me this. I deleted the post. I was hoping i would get it off before someone saw it. My fault. I have no idea what this is.

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