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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

NWS Tulsa finally issues a Winter Storm Warning after 1700+ days.  Glad that drought is over.  

Haha good to hear.   Too bad it's not area wide.  Still the drought here I guess.

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9 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Haha good to hear.   Too bad it's not area wide.  Still the drought here I guess.

Yep same ole same ole, just saying less than a half inch possible lol. Whatever anymore at this point, just too far south and in a snow drought place.

Whats the GFS saying for us? Im lost in model posts now haha

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This kinda sucks from NWS Norman office. 
 

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
933 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Main impact of evening update was to decrease snow/sleet amounts
most areas for overnight and Saturday morning. Still could see an
axis of enhanced sleet/snow accumulations from western north Texas
and adjacent Oklahoma counties of south-central Oklahoma, north
and northeast into central Oklahoma overnight and Saturday morning
as upper trough lifts out. Western parts of Oklahoma may see brief
flurries but nothing impactful. We have adjusted the winter
weather advisory to remove northwest Oklahoma and add a few
counties across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

Overall, most locations that see snow will see less than an inch,
but given very cold trough, prolonged saturated dendritic zone
from around Wichita Falls up through the I-44 corridor overnight
and tomorrow morning, there could still be periodic bands of
moderate snow that could create impacts. Initially, there could
also be patchy freezing rain/sleet that could help bridges and
overpasses to become slick. A minimal type advisory event, but not
worth canceling entire advisory. Big takeaway is the very cold
wind chill values much of tomorrow, which I think we might get
right.

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47 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Yep same ole same ole, just saying less than a half inch possible lol. Whatever anymore at this point, just too far south and in a snow drought place.

Whats the GFS saying for us? Im lost in model posts now haha

Mostly 1-2", but I'm a little skeptical some of that may be other "frozen" precip.

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I’m more optimistic now than I was last night. Not gonna be major but should see some flakes flying tomorrow. 

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Yep got cold here too(down to 30), Tulsa still sounds confused by their forecast disco. Whenever thick low clouds move over and the wind picks up I can see misty snow falling lol. Still in an advisory until 3 for up to an inch, eh idk at this point. If it happens it happens I guess, the typical 1 inch stuff at best. I just hope one of these giant storms sets up right and gives the smack down yet on us all.

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Getting ready to enjoy a few hours of wintry weather here and then start focusing on next weekend... which will likely get my hopes up only to see them crushed again. Tis a pleasure to live in the 4 states. :rolleyes::sun:

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3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Getting ready to enjoy a few hours of wintry weather here and then start focusing on next weekend... which will likely get my hopes up only to see them crushed again. Tis a pleasure to live in the 4 states. :rolleyes::sun:

I don't really see a reason to get your hopes up for next weekend though. Maybe a little sleet to start but then probably warming up to rain?

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Just now, JoMo said:

I don't really see a reason to get your hopes up for next weekend though. Maybe a little sleet to start but then probably warming up to rain?

True. Just been grasping at straws this winter. I think part of my issue this season is because of the hype at the beginning of the winter. Just goes to show how long range forecasting still isn't very accurate at all. 

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16 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

True. Just been grasping at straws this winter. I think part of my issue this season is because of the hype at the beginning of the winter. Just goes to show how long range forecasting still isn't very accurate at all. 

This, every single long range forecast i watched or read everyone was saying an epic winter. I think I been so disappointed the last 6-7 years now I have gotten use to it lol. It is sleeting pretty heavy here now though, down to 28.

Sleet and snow mix now, just changed over!!

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Very difficult to not be frustrated by this one.  The heavier bands set up for some of us like the models generally showed.  Instead of 1-2”/hr snowfall rates it has piss poured sleet here for an hour while it’s 27 degrees.  
This just isn’t our decade...

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7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Very difficult to not be frustrated by this one.  The heavier bands set up for some of us like the models generally showed.  Instead of 1-2”/hr snowfall rates it has piss poured sleet here for an hour while it’s 27 degrees.  
This just isn’t our decade...

Same here, back over to crappy sleet again lol. Its neat to see but could have been so much more again :( . Can you imagine how much snow that would have been if it was all snow

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6 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Same here, back over to crappy sleet again lol. Its neat to see but could have been so much more again :( . Can you imagine how much snow that would have been if it was all snow

Yes, and radar returns appear to be drying up to our west.  Just a bunch of sleet here.   

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1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Yes, and radar returns appear to be drying up to our west.  Just a bunch of sleet here.   

I noticed that, Im not shocked at all are you lol? I just went for a small hike, enjoyed the sleet and flurries while it lasted haha. The roads were solid ice on the way down then the sleet and snow stopped, looked like the sun was trying to peek out for a minute there and bam everything is just wet roads now. Gonna be terrible come dark though, refreeze and black ice

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Freezing Rain/Sleet mix @ 31.6°    1" total predicted of mixed stuff. That is more than am expecting . Radar to the west/southwest of me is showing a moderate snow . Whether it gets here or not I don't know :)

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Snowing golf balls in republic. Some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. 
 

still probably half sleet though. It would be snowing at a crazy rate if it was all snow. 

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3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Snowing golf balls in republic. Some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. 

Enjoy! Had a few quarter sized flakes here as it wrapped up. Still flurries and sleet pellets here... very little left.

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Not sure when the next one is, but differences between the Euro and GFS. Eventually we should probably get a western ridge and eastern trough again. Probably going to be a nice -EPO. The CFS has nothing but a -EPO look through the month of Feb. 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png 

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NAM is definitely not nearly as warm as it had been in the last couple of runs. The 60s of midweek are definitely gone. EURO looks dry after this weekend's wet storm. GFS is stormy though. Hope you enjoyed this system. 

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Was checking the long-range temp forecasts (Pivotal)  and it is looking good about the 19 or so for cold temps to return .  Now if the moisture coincides with the cold = good snow chances . :snowing:

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This Thurs-Sat system has the makings of something great IF we can get the cold air to stick around.

I say great, but if we get anything it would be an ice storm. But you know what? Give it to me. 

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

This Thurs-Sat system has the makings of something great IF we can get the cold air to stick around.

I say great, but if we get anything it would be an ice storm. But you know what? Give it to me. 

I'm with you .  Any frozen precipitation is welcome .

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Tuttle is wondering if the cold air will stick around or will it get modified for the end of week, 

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4 minutes ago, lokee said:

18z GFS has freezing rain back in the state of Oklahoma Thurs 1/16 afternoon.

Noticed that. I am down in OKC this week on a business trip, headed back home on Friday, so this I have a feeling we will get hammered just to make my life miserable!

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3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Noticed that. I am down in OKC this week on a business trip, headed back home on Friday, so this I have a feeling we will get hammered just to make my life miserable!

Likewise, I have to be in KC this weekend so I will likely get ice stormageddon... because I don't want it to. 

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Euro painting an ugly picture across SWMO Thursday night. I know models normally under do arctic air, and if that’s the case, it’s even uglier. Interesting 48-72 hours upcoming. 

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