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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. 

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3 minutes ago, garfan said:

I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. 

So I'm no meteorologist, but weather has been my passion since I was in the 3rd grade(I'm 28 now), so disclaimer that what I say may not be 100% accurate.

In regards to this storm, it's all about cold air. The cold air will be retreating today and tomorrow, so earlier models pushed this storm out quicker, resulting in there being plenty of cold air to work with(combined with the fact that this storm is a cold core storm). But the last couple days' runs slowed the storm down by about 24-32 hours, meaning it had less cold air to work with, so snowfall is ENTIRELY dependent on that cold core. So when the storm went slower, it went more south, keeping that cold core just out of reach for certain areas. 

If the storm sped up, while it would mean less snow to an extent, the snowfall rates in those deformation bands will still be very high, so it's relatively negligible in my opinion.

Hope that helps!

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11 minutes ago, garfan said:

I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. 

To add to the above post by StormChazer: This storm doesn't have a connection to the northern stream, the flow is of Pacific origin behind it, so areas have to rely on the 'stale' cold air that's already in place which will gradually warm. 

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TSA not biting on snow for Tulsa Metro. 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
407 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Complicated forecast this afternoon with ongoing areas of light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle in parts of eastern OK and
northwest AR that prompted a Winter Weather Advisory earlier
today. Surface temperatures have gone virtually nowhere as warm
conveyor precip continues to spread north up to near I-44 with a
sharp cutoff on the northern edge. Temps are and will likely
remain below freezing from about McAlester to Eureka Springs with
slight moderation possible later tonight. Although short-wave
ridging aloft will be over the are tonight, a near saturated layer
will persist up through around 850mb per high res model
soundings, thus while threat of measurable rainfall will
eventually shift east, some patchy areas of freezing drizzle
cannot be discounted. Thus have extended the Advisory into
Thursday morning, as some slick overpasses have been reported.

Potent upper low currently centered west of ELP will continue to
move east Thursday, with a track somewhere in the vicinity of the
Red River. Precip will begin to increase Thursday morning into the
afternoon as the low moves east. Freezing remain potential during
the morning will persist, and concern is that temperatures will
not moderate much at all in the vicinity of heaviest precip band
which is currently expected to set up close to the I-40 corridor.
If temps remain cold enough a band of significant ice accumulation
may set up and this will need to be watched closely. By afternoon
most if not all locations should finally warm above freezing but
again this is no guarantee where heaviest precip falls. For now
will handle the potential with extension of existing Advisory.
Areas in closer proximity to the upper low track will eventually
see enough cooling through deeper layer to result in a chance to
snow, with some potential for accumulations mainly across
southeast OK in elevated terrain.
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