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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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9 minutes ago, garfan said:

There is Winter Storm Watch in place in much of central and western Oklahoma. About an hour ago the NWS Norman, OK tweeted this...

"There is still some uncertainty with the forecast for the upcoming winter weather Wed. night into Thursday. The models have trended the system slower, warmer, and further south, all of which impact winter precip amounts and location."

Yeah... I see no reason to get excited about this one. Southwest up through central Oklahoma might get something but outside of that, I am not seeing anything. The trend of boring winters continues. 

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Cutoff lows are notoriously tricky to forecast. This one is no exception. I've seen some crazy last minute changes with these types of systems, even within 24 hours, so it's possible we see some favorable last minute shift...but I agree that the overall trend today has been slower, further south, and warmer. Again that favors SW OK and parts of western north Texas that will be closest to the center of the upper low as it ejects, and therefore will have the best overlap of colder temps and best dynamics. 

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If the NAM is close on some of those projected freezing rain totals that spells a lot of trouble for the OKC metro and other places as well. From what I understand, 0.25" is the threshold for the beginning of tree damage and power outages. Lesser amounts of course for roadway headaches. 

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Caution on using those freezing rain maps. All that is is the amount of precip that falls as rain with surface temps below freezing. It doesn’t take into account accretion efficiency or anything like that. Can easily cut those totals in half or more for what would actually accrete on trees except in the most perfect accretion conditions, which this will not be.

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6 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Caution on using those freezing rain maps. All that is is the amount of precip that falls as rain with surface temps below freezing. It doesn’t take into account accretion efficiency or anything like that. Can easily cut those totals in half or more for what would actually accrete on trees except in the most perfect accretion conditions, which this will not be.

 

I normally do not believe those freezing rain totals as they are when I look at those maps. A Okc tv guys was jsut now calling for up to neat a quarter of an inch to the SE of Okc to the SE of Tulsa.

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Latest GFS/FV3-GFS both coming in weaker and further south again. Barely get significant precip into OK. If that ends up being reality that will be 2 scores for the GFS this winter, as it led the way with the December bust and has consistently been on the weaker side of the guidance envelope with this system as well. 

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Aren't we kind of getting into the better range for the mesos over the globals, though? If we are than that would give the edge to the NAM.

I'm watching this closely as I'm a trucker heading back east from California in the time frame for the storm. I usually run 40 to 44 to 70, but if it's going to be bad in Oklahoma, I may just head right on up to 70 and go through Colorado and Kansas.

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I'll believe the mesoscale models on things like temperatures and banding potential for winter storms. Believe the globals on things like synoptic details such as strength and track of the upper low, which is the key uncertainty here, not temperatures. 

People probably remember the NAM was the last model to jump ship with the December bust. GFS went first, then Euro, then the NAM. Right now GFS is doing a hard brake on this storm. Will see if other models also jump at 00z. My guess is NAM caves, but we'll see. As I said earlier, cutoff lows are infamous for surprises. What makes them so fun but also so frustrating to forecast!

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Digging into the 0Z NAM shows a potentially nasty situation across Central Oklahoma on Thursday. It does have temperatures hovering near freezing, but if those were one to two degrees too warm, somebody would be getting a nasty ice event. FWIW the 0Z HRRR out to 12Z Thursday is even slower than the NAM with the upper-level low.

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Maybe some freezing rain with this system here but man the temps have been bumped wayyyy up for after this storm, looks like a major blowtorch coming yet again. Pfff slowly losing faith in this winter season yet again. Such a shame too cause the moisture has been there since past spring, the temps and storm tracks meh not so much.

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1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Well 00z Euro actually bumped north from its 12z run, dumping a lot of snow in central OK. 6z GFS is now slightly north of 0z. Has the south trend stopped? Hard to say but man it is going to be close for the OKC  metro. 

 

OKC 12+, Tulsa 0 on the master.

Most members seem to want to give OKC some significant winter weather.

Crazy...

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Definitely a northern jog in the models since last night. I'll probably throw up if OKC get blasted and Tulsa gets nothing; I think I'll take it personal at that point as the weather Gods hating Tulsa, haha. But seeing such a steep gradient in a matter of miles, means that if the storm just moves a tad faster and/or north, then Tulsa could get it on it too. So after abandoning all hope yesterday, I'm back to holding onto a sliver.

There's a few members in the Euro that get Tulsa in on the action, and many that are so close that 20 miles makes an ENORMOUS difference.

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Models have been awful this year (and last). I haven't even looked at the weeklies the last few runs because the general pattern change keeps getting pushed back. I'm starting to believe the saying "A watched pot never boils"

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