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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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37 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

With a more amped system as the NAM & Euro would depict, is there a chance the system moves back north? The 18z GEFS seemed to suggest some decent snow accumulations into southern Kansas and Missouri. 

This is what I have been focused on being here in SC Kansas. My gut feeling has been that the cold dry air would win out here in KS, especially if this passed through as more of an open wave. However, if this comes out more amplified with a closed low at 500mb as the NAM is showing I think that certainly gives us a better shot at meaningful snow. ICT area forecast discussion touched on this last night. I found it interesting that they were actually siding with the GFS more than the ECMWF at the time when I was not. Still late in NAM so I may take this run with a grain of salt but it something I've been looking for. Granted this is slightly outdated I found it interesting. 

The extended range continues to be dominated by a strong storm
system progged to develop to the south.  The ECMWF and GEM have
moved the system a little further to the north while the GFS
continues to keep a similar track and is the furthest north of the
three. The main issues with the ECMWF and the GEM continues to be
lack of a closed low at 500mb which is inconsistent with the
300mb wind field which strongly supports a closed low at 500mb.
The GFS positions this 500mb low in the northern Oklahoma region.
This location supports snowfall over much of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.
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OKZ004>031-033>040-044-TXZ083>088-052200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0001.181207T1200Z-181209T0600Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Cotton-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-
Wichita-Knox-Baylor-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Laverne, Alva, Cherokee, Helena,
Carmen, Medford, Pond Creek, Lamont, Wakita, Ponca City, 
Blackwell, Shattuck, Arnett, Gage, Fargo, Woodward, Fairview, 
Enid, Perry, Cheyenne, Hammon, Seiling, Vici, Taloga, Leedey, 
Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, Okeene, Kingfisher, 
Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Elk City, Sayre, 
Cordell, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho, 
El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague, 
Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell, 
Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Shawnee, Seminole, Wewoka, 
Hollis, Mangum, Granite, Hobart, Snyder, Altus, Frederick, 
Lawton, Duncan, Pauls Valley, Lindsay, Wynnewood, Walters, 
Temple, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon, Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, 
Munday, Knox City, and Seymour
336 AM CST Wed Dec 5 2018



...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around 
three tenths of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...The heavier snow accumulations will mainly be across
northern Oklahoma, especially near the Kansas border. The
heavier ice accumulations are expected to extend from southwest
Oklahoma into central Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
due to the ice. Road conditions will vary across Oklahoma and
western north Texas, depending on ground temperatures and the
rate of accumulation of snow and ice. Ice may accumulate on
bridges and overpasses, even where main roads do not freeze.The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 
 

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06z NAM and 12K both indicating heavy snow for much of OK. 12K generally 3-11 with a sharp cutoff along the OK/KS border... through noon Sat.

NAM generally in line but with high amounts of 7-8 but hits SC and SW OK with .5 to 1inch + amounts of ice. 12K precip type indicates roughly the same.

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OUN official is generally 2-4 inches of snow except WC OK where 4-6 is shown and ice amounts up to a .5 inch generally along and S of I44 and I40 in C and W OK with lighter amounts to the KS border.

Tulsa NWS in line with them with 1-3 inches of snow and under .1 of ice for NE OK.

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Trend still looks good. Sure would like a slight northern shift to include S KS and S MO in more certain action. Model runs at 12z (and especially at 0z) will help tell the story as the system will be more fully sampled. Personally found it interesting that OUN hoisted the watch while TSA didn't. 

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Aside from it being 1300+ days since a winter storm warning, it’s also been 691 days since issuing a winter storm watch. They probably forgot how. 

Joking aside, I’m sure it has to just do with timing, OKC area will get in on it probably 3-6 hours before Tulsa, so I’m betting Tulsa issues watches this afternoon.

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Anybody think STL will get in on this storm this weekend? In our local forum will are holding on to some northern shifts with tonight's and tomorrow's runs.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Anybody think STL will get in on this storm this weekend? In our local forum will are holding on to some northern shifts with tonight's and tomorrow's runs.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk


* edit- Holding on to some hope for a northern shift.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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41 minutes ago, lovableweatherguy said:

Anybody think STL will get in on this storm this weekend? In our local forum will are holding on to some northern shifts with tonight's and tomorrow's runs.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

The NAM says no. Not even a shift north to bring S KS & S MO into play. >12" of snow for the I-44 corridor, though. 

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12Z NAM, these totals are with the storm still not out of the area just yet. 

We all know the NAM totals are going to be exaggerated this far out, but it corroborates with the Euro pretty well. I wonder when the GFS is going to get on board(if ever).

 

 

2105327485_namconus_asnow_scus_29(2).thumb.png.33f76a48f76a8a4db6fe3d203441b5ef.png

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12Z NAM, these totals are with the storm still not out of the area just yet. 

We all know the NAM totals are going to be exaggerated this far out, but it corroborates with the Euro pretty well. I wonder when the GFS is going to get on board(if ever).

What are the Euro amounts?

NAM is just ballistic with snow N of I40 and tons of ice with some snow S. And, like you said, with precip on-going.

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4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

 

Here's the euro.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120500_105_483_215.png

 

 

I should note that there are quite a few ensembles that show numbers near or at what the NAM is showing.

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2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Here's the euro.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120500_105_483_215.png

Thanks!

Those seem more reasonable.

I looked back at the last 3 NAM runs and the trend is interesting on snow amounts.

00z: 1.5 at 6am Sat

06z: 2.3 at 6am Sat

12z: 5.0 at 6am Sat.

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13 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Does anyone know when this thing is going to be sampled?

Looks like it'll be mostly ashore tomorrow. 

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18 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Here are my findings from this afternoon's run of the Euro.

10 members give little(under 1-2 in) to no snow for Tulsa and surrounding areas.

9 Near misses or right on the steep snow gradient(2 to 8 inches within a span of 20 miles)

31 Heavy snow runs

 

This is a drastic turn around from last night's euro run both in the master solution and the ensembles.

The way I see it as of right now according to the Euro...

20% of little to nothing

18% RIGHT on the line

62% Good, winter storm warning criteria weather

 

I've been analyzing the Euro runs for a couple days now, here is my findings from last night in regards to how the Tulsa metro is affected.

 

10 members show 0-2 inches of snow

6 near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

34 members show heavy snow(I'm defining "heavy" as 4+ inches)

 

 

20% little to nothing

12% near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

68% Winter storm warning criteria

 

So there has definitely been a trend, each run of the Euro is putting more and more members with a large swath of Oklahoma getting a good amount of snow.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I've been analyzing the Euro runs for a couple days now, here is my findings from last night in regards to how the Tulsa metro is affected.

 

10 members show 0-2 inches of snow

6 near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

34 members show heavy snow(I'm defining "heavy" as 4+ inches)

 

 

20% little to nothing

12% near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

68% Winter storm warning criteria

 

So there has definitely been a trend, each run of the Euro is putting more and more members with a large swath of Oklahoma getting a good amount of snow.

 

 

 

How are the ensembles generally looking for central Arkansas? Noticed the NAM shift south but then again it's the NAM 84 hours out lol

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Just for giggle's I took the GDPS (6.8), UKMET-G (5.0), GEM (8.2),  NAM (14.7), NAM12K (12.5), and Euro (4) to see the average forecast amount for Tulsa.

8.47 was the number.

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Happy for you folks in Oklahoma with what now looks like a pretty good bet for a substantial winter storm. Looks like I'll have to start looking for the next opportunity for snow here in Wichita. Luckily I never got my hopes up too high for this event when the ECMWF started showing the precip shield staying south days ago. Feels like I've missed just north and now just south with storms so far this year. I have to say I like the pattern that's set up for this winter though. 

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7 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Just for giggle's I took the GDPS (6.8), UKMET-G (5.0), GEM (8.2),  NAM (14.7), NAM12K (12.5), and Euro (4) to see the average forecast amount for Tulsa.

8.47 was the number.

Is it finally our turn? Are we going to break out of this snowless pattern with a vengeance? I sure hope so...

Nice research!

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22 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said:

How are the ensembles generally looking for central Arkansas? Noticed the NAM shift south but then again it's the NAM 84 hours out lol

Looks like about a dozen models give central AR a good snow, another 12 have the Little Rock area RIGHT on that line of no snow to heavy snow, and the remaining 26 don't look too promising.

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12z GFS just looks horrid. It does seem like all the major models agree that NW of OKC will get a good helping of snow, but then the GFS just looks bad, but that makes sense since it handles cold air so poorly. 

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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

12z GFS just looks horrid. It does seem like all the major models agree that NW of OKC will get a good helping of snow, but then the GFS just looks bad, but that makes sense since it handles cold air so poorly. 

 

Yea, it's seemed out to lunch compared to most but there are some in agreement.

 

BTW... here are the OUN graphics.

image8.png?8e74eb6e70dd2f33d6c5207f6556082c

image2.png?8e74eb6e70dd2f33d6c5207f6556082c

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19 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

12z GFS just looks horrid. It does seem like all the major models agree that NW of OKC will get a good helping of snow, but then the GFS just looks bad, but that makes sense since it handles cold air so poorly. 

Was just noticing that.  The GFS says basically no winter precip for NE OK.  But in my experience GFS in a lot of cases will get storm track correct, but will handle precip and precip type poorly.  

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Here’s another odd thing about that GFS run regarding the high pressure to our north.  Someone smarter than me can give their thoughts.   If you look frame by frame the placement is as follows: 

60 - SW Iowa

66 - East IL - slight shift east from hr 60

72 - Western OH - shift east again 

84 - Just west of Chicago - HUH???  Shifted back west 300+ miles.   I don’t think so, Tim.

90 - On top of Pittsburgh, PA 

Maybe it’s nothing but hour 84 can’t be correct.

I would think we would prefer the high not to kick east too far too fast.  The NAM bounces it around Iowa and Wisconsin through 84.   

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This is sounding promising maybe for my area here now! I am def. keeping an eye on this, can we do it...can we break this half inch or less for the last 4 years each season record, just maybeeeee. Tulsa saying rain or freezing rain here friday then snow saturday into sunday early am right now. Is it too early to get excited, I want to but also dont wanna get my hopes up lol.

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