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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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3 inches since it started last night as of 7 AM. Still snowing moderately but according to radar the band is racing northward. It should be over here shortly then tomorrow it all melts!

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5.0" on the mark this a.m. liquid was 0.46...low ratio but that includes rain yesterday.  Looks to be over here, headed north. Very typical lake effect accum for my area, a lot of borderline warning or high end advisory stuff. Not bad though.

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very negative EPO forecasted by the EURO in the long range.  it tries to go Pos but puts the brakes on and heads the opposite direction so......  We all know that a -EPO is very much correlated to a cold NE so lets see how this works out.

ecmwf_epo_bias(39).png

However, the AO is headed in the wrong direction as it heads POS

 ecmwf_ao_bias.png

The NAO looks to be following its counterparrt as it heads POS

ecmwf_nao_bias.png

And finally, the PNA is currently POS and looks to stay that way however it is on the weak side.

ecmwf_pna_bias.png

So this is quite interesting as the Pacific is currently cooperating if you want Cold and Snow but the other 2 are both POS and that's traditionally a warm signal so I will be watching this to see which trumps which.  The Pacific has usually more of an impact, on the pattern, as a whole versus both the PNA and the EPO.

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This pattern we are currently going into usually promotes lower latitude blocking which can hit and stick and last for quite some time but I'm still concerned with those teleconnections  forecasted by the EURO.  Haven't looked at the GFS yet to see if there is any agreement.

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Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially if you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

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2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially  you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

I was actually just going to post the opposite...the wrf is showing a perturbed, albeit mildly, PV the end of November early December...the PV will be sliding into the eurasia side however cohen and others like the idea if colder air into the northeast,  the problem im seeing is its dry air after a 1 or 2 day "warm up"then 2 to 3 days of truly chilly air but little moisture. Thinking thats how this pattern will be for a couple weeks until something disrupts the storm track south of here.

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4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Next 10 days looks absolutely disgusting if your a winter weather enthusiast like we all are especially if you don't live E-SE of one of the Lakes and even where snow does fall it will melt very quickly.  I'm not sure where all these news outlets are getting all this cold air from next week? I've actually seen temps in the upper 20's for highs next Monday but nowhere do I see this on either of the Global models so IDK.

And I've looked at the GFS and they look worse than the EURO, lol.

The next 10 days looks downright good for this time of year (IE: marginal shots at some flakes, temps below freezing some days).  It's not like its mid January and we are blowtorching.  We can routinely have highs in the 50's and 60's this time of year.  Let's tone down the panic, we are off to a better than normal start in my opinion with a few transient cold shots on the horizon.  Things are going to be ok.  

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Irondequoit. This is after hours of melting. We got 4" or so. NWS didn't see my area getting hit. Tim did. 

IMG_3991.JPG

The NWS maps routinely had 2-4 called out for Northern/Northeastern Monroe county.  If you flip back a few pages you can see the forecasts.  The HRR also pegged the band that hit you quite well.  I wouldnt say this was unexpected at all.  Anyway, be happy nothing but a sugar coat down south of the city.  

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The next 10 days looks downright good for this time of year (IE: marginal shots at some flakes, temps below freezing some days).  It's not like its mid January and we are blowtorching.  We can routinely have highs in the 50's and 60's this time of year.  Let's tone down the panic, we are off to a better than normal start in my opinion with a few transient cold shots on the horizon.  Things are going to be ok.  

I disagree, but I guess we'll see. Avg temp is 47, where I am for mid November, it's gonna be 55 tomorrow after today's low 30's. I don't like riding a Camels back so to speak, I'd rather a 10 day period of cold with a relaxation period in between, while the cold reloads. These are just my thoughts, and I'm glad you see a different outcome.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I disagree, but I guess we'll see. Avg temp is 47, where I am for mid November, it's gonna be 55 tomorrow after today's low 30's. I don't like riding a Camels back so to speak, I'd rather a 10 day period of cold with a relaxation period in between, while the cold reloads. These are just my thoughts, and I'm glad you see a different outcome.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

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Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

Those were the days where Winter hit, and stuck till January with a mid month thaw for about a week or 2, then right back to it for 6-8 wks. Those winters are now, few and far between, like 2013-14 as that hit and didn't leave till March, lol. Actually, it was too cold, but there was no complaining at all, lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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38 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Those were the days where Winter hit, and stuck till January with a mid month thaw for about a week or 2, then right back to it for 6-8 wks. Those winters are now, few and far between, like 2013-14 as that hit and didn't leave till March, lol. Actually, it was too cold, but there was no complaining at all, lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I have to say that February was incredible from a wall to wall cold and snow here in WNY...if memory serves me 2015 February was similar as well...heres to hoping!!!

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48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.

lake erie already 1 degree below normal. This is a really bad pattern for WNY as the lake is getting cold quick with barely any LES to show for it. Would rather have 50-60 and sunny.

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14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

lol at the complaining. You guys suck its nov. 20th.  next 10 average below normal.  


 

Actually im good with it, im a glass half full guy, always have been but with a realistic view built in! I actually just perused the 12z GFS and I absolutely love hour 192 (next Sunday) through just about the end of the run, there appears to be a good match with the GEFS that we will turn much colder towards the end of November early December...and as was previously stated my confidence is growing in this type of pattern because the gfs and euro both nailed the cold air in advance we just had and the blast a week ago. Getting excited.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good pattern for below normal, bad pattern for snow chances

I don't think you can see such things right now.  I don't think that's ever been true for the lakes, unless they're frozen lol.  

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