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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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This was still a nice preview of what's to come so I'm happy I saw the first flakes of this very early season. Man o man, had there been a wnw-w, flow for a 8-12hr period, there would of been some heafty totals, like those seen towards the northern portion of the UP of MI. 12-18 for those cats!

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The 0z and 6z were different in timing and placement of weather systems just before and during thanksgiving and beyond but one thing is certain is it gets very cold and the models, while confused now, are definitely on the idea of a storm somewhere in the east or northeast, with either a cut off low over the lakes and pounding us with lake effect or a nor'easter that hangs up near the coast due to the blocking over Greenland. Either way it is beginning to get exciting. 

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I have 0.9" on the ground this morning in Chili.  The patio door on my front door was frozen shut when I tried to let to dogs out at 5am. Had to leave the door open for about half an hour to get that to open again.

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Anyone having trouble with the COD nexrad site not working?  That's my go to radar but noticed the page looks different with the tool bars on the side now and the loops won't load...???

Anyways Brrr this morning!  Single digit wind chills really stinging.  Looks like that little Ontario band is about to sink through BUF and give us a dusting.  

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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone having trouble with the COD nexrad site not working?  That's my go to radar but noticed the page looks different with the tool bars on the side now and the loops won't load...???

Anyways Brrr this morning!  Single digit wind chills really stinging.  Looks like that little Ontario band is about to sink through BUF and give us a dusting.  

I noticed the COD site issues. Can't view the loops on my phone anymore.

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2 hours ago, stanleyjenkins said:

I have 0.9" on the ground this morning in Chili.  The patio door on my front door was frozen shut when I tried to let to dogs out at 5am. Had to leave the door open for about half an hour to get that to open again.

1.2" in South Gates but tricky to measure with melting, blowing, drifting, compaction, etc

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Nice 10 minute burst here.  Quick dusting here and there even on the pavement.  Anyone else notice the trees seem behind schedule again?  I mentioned this last year that it seems they are dropping later and later every year.  I can always remember them being mostly bare by Halloween but the last two years they were still pretty full into November. With the exception of the older silver maples most of the trees here are still 50% green and full.  Just me or anyone else notice this trend? 

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45 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nice 10 minute burst here.  Quick dusting here and there even on the pavement.  Anyone else notice the trees seem behind schedule again?  I mentioned this last year that it seems they are dropping later and later every year.  I can always remember them being mostly bare by Halloween but the last two years they were still pretty full into November. With the exception of the older silver maples most of the trees here are still 50% green and full.  Just me or anyone else notice this trend? 

I was just having this exact conversation with a fellow employee...the trees are definitely behind as I have trees in my neighborhood in Williamsville there completely bare and some still full of leaves and just changing...if the forecast for the week of Thanksgiving comes to fruition there could be some tree damage if we have wet snow during that period.

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We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol!

I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. 

Good to be back with you all.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol!

I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. 

Good to be back with you all.

 

 

Someone from Binghamton nws is going to be posting here? That would be incredible! 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I was just having this exact conversation with a fellow employee...the trees are definitely behind as I have trees in my neighborhood in Williamsville there completely bare and some still full of leaves and just changing...if the forecast for the week of Thanksgiving comes to fruition there could be some tree damage if we have wet snow during that period.

Up Until Tuesday most of us on the lake plain hadnt even had a good frost yet.  The last few days of hard freezes along with tonights temps in the teens will drop every leaf by Early next week.  Its game over for any leaf left.  I wouldnt worry about leaves lasting until Thanksgiving with temps in the teens and 20's today.  

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12 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

We've picked up around an inch here in BGM. Now just need that first formidable synoptic event to come along so I can justify pulling the trigger on a euro subscription lol!

I believe we also are going to have an added presence in here starting this winter out of the NWS Binghamton office. 

Good to be back with you all.

 

 

Well the 12z just finished and I'm having an honest hard time containing my excitement.  With each run I'm starting to see a trend to a cutoff type low just north of the great lakes that moves around a bit. If this trend continues and the models lock in on this as we get into next weekend I think your going to hear our local NWS talk about a long duration LES event the week of Thanksgiving. 

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24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well the 12z just finished and I'm having an honest hard time containing my excitement.  With each run I'm starting to see a trend to a cutoff type low just north of the great lakes that moves around a bit. If this trend continues and the models lock in on this as we get into next weekend I think your going to hear our local NWS talk about a long duration LES event the week of Thanksgiving. 

Pattern looks decent, but cold air is definitely lacking still. Going to need quite a few things to fall in place. Also the obligatory :weenie:

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44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Someone from Binghamton nws is going to be posting here? That would be incredible! 

Yeah a friend of mine just accepted a lateral transfer to come back home and work out of the Binghamton office. He used to be a member on the old eastern US forum. 

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22 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I like the 18th to 20th period for the first signficant Les event. 

Like I've stated I like that period and the Thanksgiving timeframe too. With a very negative AO and NAO and the coaching air not too far away in a cold Canada and upper Midwest, the setup is MUCH different from last year where if we got the same setup the cold air wasn't available because Canada was torching, and that is far fromore the case this year. So when the models don't quite show the cold air yet as it is 10 days away I belive that will be our first major chance for someone in WNY.

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Wow, I didn't realize how dry this air-mass was going to be. The dew point is currently down to 1F at KBUF. KROC's a little more sultry sitting at 8F. Might need to setup the humidifier. 

Hey Stanley, I wasn't able to open your reply for some reason on my cell, perhaps it'll work on my notebook?

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Like I've stated I like that period and the Thanksgiving timeframe too. With a very negative AO and NAO and the coaching air not too far away in a cold Canada and upper Midwest, the setup is MUCH different from last year where if we got the same setup the cold air wasn't available because Canada was torching, and that is far fromore the case this year. So when the models don't quite show the cold air yet as it is 10 days away I belive that will be our first major chance for someone in WNY.

The pac controls everything. We need help from pna and epo to deliver the arctic air. There is more to it then the ao and nao cooperating. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The pac controls everything. We need help from pna and epo to deliver the arctic air. There is more to it then the ao and nao cooperating. 

The wpo Aleutian ridge is very strong and is inducing cross polar flow.  The coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere are in Canada because of that.  

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