06Z Models 12/22/10

[tcutter]

will the new runs this morning have better data now as everything is approaching the US??

[SnowGoose69]

9z SREF's look really bad for a storm imho

If there is anything that has driven me insane so far this year more than the UKMET on performance so far its probably been the SREFs, there were so many waffles on those last event that Aunt Jemima rolled over in her grave.

[OSUmetstud]

Isnt that same SE bias that the GFS supposedly has the result of upgrades that improved its performance on tropical cyclones? I think it was subject to TC proliferation lol and the upgrades fixed that but added a bit of a cold and SE bias.

The new upgrade last summer to help out the tropical aspect of the model. The GFS seems less prone to precip bombs and tracks waves and TCs significantly better. It also has a weak upper level jet bias and very little cold bias in the medium range after the upgrade.

[SteveB]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro move away from it's OZ solution at 12Z. Eventually it has to budge, it has little support at this point.

[showmethesnow]

I think it's possible 15 km resolution is a little tough to iterate in time for 240 hours and not get the occasional hiccup. We certainly observed it with some very odd ball solutions with hurricanes this past tropical season. The ECWMF had several runs in a row of bringing Fiona (I believe) further southwest and bombing it and bringing it into Florida, Cuba, and the GOM. It ended up passing by Bermuda with 20 kt winds and a few showers.

Is it really geared for tropical systems? Don't follow during the summer to much but I thought they actually had models specifically for the tropics.

[NJwinter23]

Is everyone forgetting that for 2 runs in a row last Thursday, the Euro predicted monster snow for New England (and much of the east coast) within 72 hours? And we all know how that ended up. To blindly go with the Euro solution in the face of overwhelming contradictory guidance by the other models would be foolish. I am pretty surprised at the HPC discussion in this regard as well.

To be fair with the last non-storm, the euro did shut the gfs snowstorm solutions down with an out to sea solution 6-7 runs in a row med-long range (prior to that 2 run blip at 72 out). I'm not sure what happened with those 2 runs, but remember the other guidance shifted west as well at 12z that day, scraping the coast and blasting New England. So did the euro take some bad data and run with it the most? Most definitely, but the other models were bringing it back west as well during that 12z suite.

Now, here we see the euro showing an epic blizzard 4-5 runs in a row now in the med-longer range...I'm not sure where it goes from here. I'm definitely concerned it ends up east like the other guidance, but as long as the euro is showing something big consistently, I have hope. It's the same principal, but inverse circumstances from when the euro is playing "Dr. No" against the other guidance showing a snowstorm.

[nj2va]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro move away from it's OZ solution at 12Z. Eventually it has to budge, it has little support at this point.

Isn't that what people were expecting the OP to do at 0z too?

[SteveB]

If it wasn't for winter 1996 I think a lot of folks would be writing the Euro off.

[KEITH L.I]

To be fair with the last non-storm, the euro did shut the gfs snowstorm solutions down with an out to sea solution 6-7 runs in a row med-long range (prior to that 2 run blip at 72 out). I'm not sure what happened with those 2 runs, but remember the other guidance shifted west as well at 12z that day, scraping the coast and blasting New England. So did the euro take some bad data and run with it the most? Most definitely, but the other models were bringing it back west as well during that 12z suite.

Now, here we see the euro showing an epic blizzard 4-5 runs in a row now in the med-longer range...I'm not sure where it goes from here. I'm definitely concerned it ends up east like the other guidance, but as long as the euro is showing something big consistently, I have hope. It's the same principal, but inverse circumstances from when the euro is playing "Dr. No" against the other guidance showing a snowstorm.

great post!!

[OSUmetstud]

Is it really geared for tropical systems? Don't follow during the summer to much but I thought they actually had models specifically for the tropics.

The global models nowadays are actually reasonably good for finding intensification trends and for tracking. The tropical dynamical models (HWRF, GFDL) are honestly pretty bad. If you have any more questions, we should probably take it to another thread.

[OSUmetstud]

what the hell are you talking about?

To be fair DT, I'd like to see a bit more support from the Euro ensembles before buying the amped up operational solution too much. The 00z ensemble mean actually trended southeast.

[KEITH L.I]

If it wasn't for winter 1996 I think a lot of folks would be writing the Euro off.

lol..are you kidding me?..I wish i had a scorecard of every east coast storm in the last decade and model runs to prove it

[Guest someguy]

from 0Z thread post # 421 where I said

I am out...

I cannot wait to see how folks freak over the 6z gfs taking the low,,... and the lesson learned her over the past 24 hrs

IF the 6z gfs show the Low track Oh I dont know going to to bermuda or Chicago or Mars

---------------------------------------------------------------------

anyone see the 6z GFS AT 132 HOURS ????

http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_132.shtml

I mean it is actally close to Bermuda

[Guest someguy]

If it wasn't for winter 1996 I think a lot of folks would be writing the Euro off.

please stop posting.

[DCWeatherGuy]

lol..are you kidding me?..I wish i had a scorecard of every east coast storm in the last decade and model runs to prove it

Someone has tracked this info and clearly shown that the Euro is the most reliable model. Unfortunately, I don't have the link off hand.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

are you guys serious with this? ur relying on 6z GFS for what, a bucking trend? the trend has ALREADY been been established. will a 0z EURO solution pan out, prob not to that extreme (although it is likely). but a compromise between the EURO and the now trending GFS towards the EURO looks pretty good at this stage. the only way i see this not affecting the major cities is if the things phases too late. but with a stc low south and further west almost every cycle run with the GFS and NAM, we are increasing the chances of an ideal phase. those that are saying things are trending in the other direction are just FLAT OUT WRONG! and im no expert, just observing and paying attention. really NOT that hard to do!

[Guest someguy]

Someone has tracked this info and clearly shown that the Euro is the most reliable model. Unfortunately, I don't have the link off hand.

Like I said I have NO idea what Steve B is talking about.

[showmethesnow]

The global models nowadays are actually reasonably good for finding intensification trends and for tracking. The tropical dynamical models (HWRF, GFDL) are honestly pretty bad. If you have any more questions, we should probably take it to another thread.

Thanks for the reply. Think I would rather keep following this potential storm and leave the questions I have on the tropics for another day.

[Guest someguy]

To be fair DT, I'd like to see a bit more support from the Euro ensembles before buying the amped up operational solution too much. The 00z ensemble mean actually trended southeast.

I get that and frankly I would be STUNNED if the euro ensemblkes were NOT to the s and e..

I dont know what "Over phased " means

[SteveB]

So let's pretend the GFS doesn't exist, what other guidance is supporting what the Euro is dishing out? A few of it's ens members? Maybe? I pose this question seriously.

[njrealtor84]

Thank you for saying what I was thinking. This is the 6Z thread and I would prefer to read Met blogs, not his thoughts and depression.

please stop posting.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Like I said I have NO idea what Steve B is talking about.

WIGGUM ENOUGH SAID

[OSUmetstud]

I get that and frankly I would be STUNNED if the euro ensemblkes were NOT to the s and e..

I dont know what "Over phased " means

Ensembles are usually to the south and east...but when the ensembles shift 150 nm farther southeast from 12z yesterday to 00z last night...I think that may say something. AM19PSU posted that the ECMWF operational was the 4th or 5th most amplified solution out of the 51 ensemble members.

[A-L-E-X]

lol..are you kidding me?..I wish i had a scorecard of every east coast storm in the last decade and model runs to prove it

Yeah, any individual model can fail now and then-- but the Euro does have the best track record. I still remember how the GFS had us getting a snowfall event out of 2/6 last year... Euro and NAM were best with that storm. And the winter of 08-09 was one where the Euro surpassed the other models by quite a bit also-- so I dont know why 1996 is being brought into this discussion.

If you want to look for consensus, you wont find it until you get inside of 72 hours at the earliest, or more likely 48 hours. This kind of spread is to be expected right now.

[Swiscaster]

I'm definitely concerned it ends up east like the other guidance, but as long as the euro is showing something big consistently, I have hope. It's the same principal, but inverse circumstances from when the euro is playing "Dr. No" against the other guidance showing a snowstorm.

I kind of feel like that if the GFS had been showing a bomb for 5 runs in a row but the Euro was consistently OTS, people would still be hopeful and would probably pointing out how the Euro is wrong.

[Guest someguy]

folks read HPC.... early am ideas?

Looks like HPC is going with the ECMWF for the most part.

...EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE STAYS THE COURSE ON POWERFUL EAST

COAST STORM DECEMBER 26-27...

WILL STICK WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS

AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-7. FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE MODEL CYCLES...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...

SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE C AROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF AND

UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS TO SWITCH FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A SUPPRESSED

PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

SINCE THIS BREAK-AWAY...THE UKMET SPLIT OFF EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING

LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS

SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL

SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF... WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER

OFFSHORE. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY

ITS 4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE.

INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER

RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH

IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE 95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE

GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS

TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND

STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOWVER OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT

CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH

AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST

STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE

REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES.

[IsentropicLift]

I'll take the Euro any day of the week over the GFS but I don't like how the euro accelerated the system off to the east at the end of its 00z run. I think one could argue it was a step towards an OTS solution. The euro is known for making small corrections from run to run. It looks like it takes the trough a long time to get negative and that combined with the progressive nature of a nina is a recipie for OTS. That being said..this is by no means your typical strong la nina synoptic setup. This is turning into much more difficult of a call than I thought three days ago. Hopefully we get some consensus at 12z...no matter what it is.

[SteveB]

I apologize guys, I will stay positive and refrain from any negative posts. I suppose as long as other guidance is still trying to move towards the Euro H5 feature, we're not in a bad spot at this range.

[WintersGrasp]

I'm usually psyched about a huge storm approaching, but my gut feeling is telling me that the euro is going to shift south

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'll take the Euro any day of the week over the GFS but I don't like how the euro accelerated the system off to the east at the end of its 00z run. I think one could argue it was a step towards an OTS solution. The euro is known for making small corrections from run to run. It looks like it takes the trough a long time to get negative and that combined with the progressive nature of a nina is a recipie for OTS. That being said..this is by no means your typical strong la nina synoptic setup. This is turning into much more difficult of a call than I thought three days ago. Hopefully we get some consensus at 12z...no matter what it is.

the EURO did not accelerate the system off to the east, what are you talking about? the EURO actually has the thing stalling and pulling back towards the coast before exiting stage right. it depicts a PROLONGED crippling east coast storm.