Great Snow 1717 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: 6z gfs trending back west.. Huge shift from 0z hoping it continues at 12z Can't be!!.....I don't believe it. The GOD of all weather has proclaimed it as a miss to the right. Perhaps it's a Tanaka storm??.....similar to missing in the strike zone and allowing 3 HR's???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You have had a week or so to provide links to any met who is seriously mentioning 2017 as a legitimate comparison to 1816. In other words you have had more than ample time to provide a link..a twitter handle...a FB page. a website..anything at all, but yet you have failed to provide anything to substantiate your claim. And by the way "mets" is plural so please provide 2 or more "mets" who have mentioned 1816 in regards to 2017. What has occurred this spring has happened before in SNE What happened in 1816 was an extreme event and not just for SNE. Plain and simple there is no comparison to 1816 nor will there be. And everyone here but you realizes it. you can't 'win' this discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you can't 'win' this discussion Thank you. She's gone off the deep end I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you can't 'win' this discussion He has an insatiable desire to be right 100 percent of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thank you. She's gone off the deep end I think Once again you resort to some form of name calling by using "she" in reference to me. It goes hand in hand with you referring to other people on the forum as being sick or freaks when they do not agree with your warped views regarding the weather. It's pretty typical for someone who is in jr high but not typical for an adult. Now please provide any links to any mets who have compared 2017 to 1816. If such links even existed you would have long ago provided them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 We'll see what a June sun along the east coast and GOM moisture via latent heat release can do to build that UL downstream ridge. Temps will likely overperform today and tomorrow, expecting mid to upper 70's around here today and widespread 80+ tomorrow. I'd want hedge closer to the coast with the track based on these two conditions. Still very interesting for the Cape and downeast ME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: He has an insatiable desire to be right 100 percent of the time. Here's the deal. You can't change people. So don't even try. You won't get anywhere if you focus your efforts on trying to change people. The longer you are here, you pick on posting personalities. Most post a combo of facts and opinion. Depending on where they fall on the bell curve, the posts are either more fact based or more opinion based. The best thing to do is read and figure out which facts overlap from the majority of knowledgeable posters, and then weed out the opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: We'll see what a June sun along the east coast and GOM moisture via latent heat release can do to build that UL downstream ridge. I'd want hedge closer to the coast with the track based on these two conditions. Still very interesting for the Cape and downeast ME. I wouldn't be at all surprised if you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: I wouldn't be at all surprised if you are correct. Those UL heights in NNE and SE Canada are already pretty impressive, and have started to trend back towards building positive UL height anomalies into most of NNE through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Those UL heights in NNE and SE Canada are already pretty impressive, and have started to trend back towards building positive UL height anomalies into most of NNE through tomorrow. So at this point in time where do you think the storm could potentially track? Do you have any thoughts on the Atlantic hurricane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 NO - what is meant is ... whether one is right or wrong is irrelevant in the act of Internet squabbling, it is futile to attempt to penetrate the opposing mind. Don't engage, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: So at this point in time where do you think the storm could potentially track? Do you have any thoughts on the Atlantic hurricane season? Don't have much thoughts on the season. Only prediction I have is it being more active than average due to above average SST's and very weak to non-existent El Niño. Cape to Bay of fundy is my best guess. But low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have seen you post numerous times how in the warm seasons tropical systems and coastal systems trend east the last 24 hours So because warm core TCs often have a tendency to tick east, that now means all storms (including cold core extra tropical cyclones) tick east in summer while ticking west in winter? That's a pretty amazing leap there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So because warm core TCs often have a tendency to tick east, that now means all storms (including cold core extra tropical cyclones) tick east in summer while ticking west in winter? That's a pretty amazing leap there. Seasons in seasons. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Looks like one of two things will happen with that 'heat wave' early next week... 1 ... it will end up just being 3 to 5 days of 87 to 91 with gradually building DPs... 2 ... sometimes the models will see a big ridge (trough) and elaborate potentials therein in their extended range... Then, summarily seemingly engineer any way physically plausible to mute/damp out their own signal, only to bring it back in nearer terms to something ...perhaps 80 to 90th percentile of the original vision. What that would mean for this is that it will look sort of 87 to 91'ish for the next few cycles ..then, come Friday's runs or so the ridge comes back to more of an unimpeded continental dragon tongue as opposed to weird vorticity shrapnel and a non-chartable off-set 850 mb plumes of relatively cooler air embedded in the continental baroctropic hot air mass... Those idiosyncrasies cut high temp potential pretty significantly at the 40th latitude.. Thing is, they can be real.. A lot of those "dents" in the heat are more likely to exists in a less anomalous height version of the ridge because ... slightly less suppression ...blah blah Which, the 00z Euro was kind of did try to make the air mass more homogeneous that anyway... It 86'ed its phantom [looking] BD for Monday that it decided to insert in that 12z run from yesterday.... Now placing any boundary roughly PWM to BTV type of axis... If the ridge comes back over the late week guidance, more in line to the original looks than even that would be too far S with any perceived boundary. Anyway ... details aside ...finally we are escaping the giant synoptic scaled 'tuck' pattern that keeps depositing cold plumes into Se Ontario... AT this point it's warmer up in Dead Horse than it is in NE for f sake ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Nam will be west of 6z; slightly better downstream ridging already apparent at hr 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 More of a negative tilt at hr 36 versus 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Sunday looks like a torch. Pretty strong push at 850 of warm temps. Probably a lot more 90s than forecasted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sunday looks like a torch. Pretty strong push at 850 of warm temps. Probably a lot more 90s than forecasted right now. Yeah Sunday is a little under the radar. The GFS is getting 19-20C 850s into the region during peak heating now with a lot of sun and SW flow. That could be pretty torchy from ASH-CON (and the whole region really). MOS seems to often underestimate that first hot day of every warm spell too. Usually it comes with SKC and drier air so I guess we're more conducive thermodynamically for heating and mixing. I haven't peaked yet, but forecast soundings seem to always want to keep the mixed layer from reaching H85 too so that may be part of the problem. That works in Jan with snow cover and low insolation, but the June sun will overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah Sunday is a little under the radar. The GFS is getting 19-20C 850s into the region during peak heating now with a lot of sun and SW flow. That could be pretty torchy from ASH-CON (and the whole region really). MOS seems to often underestimate that first hot day of every warm spell too. Usually it comes with SKC and drier air so I guess we're more conducive thermodynamically for heating and mixing. I haven't peaked yet, but forecast soundings seem to always want to keep the mixed layer from reaching H85 too so that may be part of the problem. That works in Jan with snow cover and low insolation, but the June sun will overcome that. Of course now that I look I see the GFS has CON mixing up to H8. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Of course now that I look I see the GFS has CON mixing up to H8. lol Might have to stay at the lake until MOnday..lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2017 Author Share Posted June 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might have to stay at the lake until MOnday..lol. we install Saturday, right on normal schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: we install Saturday, right on normal schedule. I wonder how much money was lost for those who installed in April yet ran the heat for 6 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 GFS now wet in ern areas. LOL. Edit: many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 It's a good thing these always correct east otherwise it would've cut to BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Sunday looks like a torch. Pretty strong push at 850 of warm temps. Probably a lot more 90s than forecasted right now. Euro actually started flagging the hot Sunday yesterday ... sort of bumped up the 'heat wave' by a day. Brian's right about the entry day often muted by global models; they do that often and that Sunday smacks of GFS fantasy limitations of BL expansion and local study and so forth, all of which look maximized sooner than Monday. How about the monster front on Tuesday now... ? Compare that to the 00z Euro - one of these models has no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 The last of the cloud shield has finally peeled away ... and the winds are advecting in the warmth from eastern Ontario whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I wonder how much money was lost for those who installed in April yet ran the heat for 6 weeks? At least they weren't sweaty from waiting to install them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I wonder how much money was lost for those who installed in April yet ran the heat for 6 weeks? It's worth the extra couple hundred bucks in energy bills to say that you installed in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's worth the extra couple hundred bucks in energy bills to say that you installed in April. His windows aren't very energy inefficient. Maybe having the units in saves on heating costs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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