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MattPetrulli

April 5-6 Severe Threat

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Just now, DixieBlizzard said:

I am sure Glenn Burns will have all of the stormgasms you could possibly wish for. He will be all over it.

I wish I could like this more than once.  Glen mfing Burns. 

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I certainly don't like what I see. The 3km NAM has what seems to be a regional tornado outbreak tomorrow with numerous long-tracked/possibly violent tornadoes. We'll have to see what the CAM do with this situation as even the RPM has numerous discrete supercells tracking across TN/AL/GA. 

 

TrueWeather Tornado Index with Updraft Helicity Swaths. Greater than .5 favors violent tornadoes 

 

442ae7d749759182a1affa1e7e09a3ee.png

 

cbca72e810d37c6e8560ecdec280623d.png

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34 minutes ago, TropicalAnalystwx13 said:

45% seems like a stretch and should be saved for the truly rare setups. Based on everything I'm looking at, a 30% hatched area across eastern Alabama and western Georgia seems in order though.

I would agree if it said a 60% hatched area, but what makes it seem as if 45% hatched area is a stretch?  The ingredients are going to be there.

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39 minutes ago, TropicalAnalystwx13 said:

45% seems like a stretch and should be saved for the truly rare setups. Based on everything I'm looking at, a 30% hatched area across eastern Alabama and western Georgia seems in order though.

I'm not exactly following this line of thinking. This has the potential to be a very high end event, potentially the highest threat to metro Atlanta since 2011, and that's saying something. 45% is warranted at this stage, we'll see what the mid-day update for DAY 2 shows, but the door is open for a HIGH risk for tomorrow, at this stage. Of course a lot hinges on the warm front and overnight/early morning elevated storms.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Is this the Feb sun angle thread!!????

anyway, does this main event being e AL/ W Ga centric, are the Carolinas out of the woods now??

No

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11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

I certainly don't like what I see. The 3km NAM has what seems to be a regional tornado outbreak tomorrow with numerous long-tracked/possibly violent tornadoes. We'll have to see what the CAM do with this situation as even the RPM has numerous discrete supercells tracking across TN/AL/GA. 

 

TrueWeather Tornado Index with Updraft Helicity Swaths. Greater than .5 favors violent tornadoes 

 

442ae7d749759182a1affa1e7e09a3ee.png

 

cbca72e810d37c6e8560ecdec280623d.png

That's a lot of helicity to be forecasted when we are still at 24 hours away from this event. I'm starting to get very nervous myself for my parents whom now lives in East Alabama.  This is very disturbing that so much intensity is being forecasted for that area between Birmingham and Atlanta, and will be affecting us in Atlanta...

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

12z RPM also favors numerous discrete supercells with an interesting focus to the north. 

 

f0e9fbb8a2b9b687d95606077a8b7125.png 

Fully expect the MDT risk to be expanded at 1730z, perhaps with a high risk somewhere... Imagine they might hold off on that until tomorrow when/if greater confidence exists on a corridor at an evidently higher risk of destructive tornadoes. 

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28 minutes ago, Calderon said:

I'm not exactly following this line of thinking. This has the potential to be a very high end event, potentially the highest threat to metro Atlanta since 2011, and that's saying something. 45% is warranted at this stage, we'll see what the mid-day update for DAY 2 shows, but the door is open for a HIGH risk for tomorrow, at this stage. Of course a lot hinges on the warm front and overnight/early morning elevated storms.

Sure, and don't get me wrong, I fully expect a high risk and a large-scale outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes. I do see a few limiting factors though, those being the potential impacts of morning convection on moisture recovery, as well as the structure of the low-level jet (which may also be tied to the morning MCS).

EDIT: Sorry guys, I see the confusion now. I read the post as there being a 45% hatched tornado area across AL/GA tomorrow, not overall severe probabilities.

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4 minutes ago, TropicalAnalystwx13 said:

Sure, and don't get me wrong, I fully expect a high risk and a large-scale outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes. I do see a few limiting factors though, those being the potential impacts of morning convection on moisture recovery, as well as the structure of the low-level jet (which may also be tied to the morning MCS).

Definitely some things that could greatly hinder significant severe. The year as a whole favors a little more wait and see approach, spc will have a good read on it by early tomorrow.

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SREF Sig Tor Ingredients...

I feel they stay MDT at 1730, but mention the possibility of an upgrade tomorrow morning once the convection moves through just to see how the BL moisture reacts. I also expect the MDT to be expanded quite a bit to the NW. 

2915e9cf3d48f141efb895cba0b92bae.gif

1575f4596a55cf29d9cc3858744184bc.gif 

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8 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

SREF Sig Tor Ingredients...

I feel they stay MDT at 1730, but mention the possibility of an upgrade tomorrow morning once the convection moves through just to see how the BL moisture reacts. I also expect the MDT to be expanded quite a bit to the NW. 

 

 

 

swody2_severeprob.png?v=766 

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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Screams a high risk area in there. Didn't think they'd pull the trigger now.

Yeah, moderate risks that are this large (and will likely be larger by tomorrow) rarely go unaccompanied by a high risk. They are saying a tornado outbreak is likely so it's almost a given, if everything goes as expected/modeled.

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Couple of things...first, I think the warm front setting up around the northern metro Atlanta area could potentially be worse (for our area) than having it push all the way further north.....some of Georgia's most intense outbreaks (March 2008 comes to mind) have occurred with storms riding east to west along a warm front draped at the foothills of the mountains.  Second, regardless of morning convection, it's already going to be much much warmer around here than is typical with these setups in recent years.....heck most of the time we seem to be in the 50's and 60's battling CAD.......we'll be in the low 80's today.  Third, I've been following severe setups here for a long time and it's very very rare for the Atlanta metro to be squarely in the bullseye like the above STP map forecast is showing for tomorrow.  Very rare.  99% of the time it would be centered in eastern Mississippi and western Alabama, so what's most concerning is the population that will potentially be under the bullseye tomorrow.  Sure the SE is more populated than the Great Plains and cities such as Tuscaloosa, Jackson, and Birmingham are sizeable metro areas, but that's nothing compared to the area encompassed by Atlanta.  If this holds true, this may be a very rare situation.

- Buck

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2 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

Couple of things...first, I think the warm front setting up around the northern metro Atlanta area could potentially be worse (for our area) than having it push all the way further north.....some of Georgia's most intense outbreaks (March 2008 comes to mind) have occurred with storms riding east to west along a warm front draped at the foothills of the mountains.  Second, regardless of morning convection, it's already going to be much much warmer around here than is typical with these setups in recent years.....heck most of the time we seem to be in the 50's and 60's battling CAD.......we'll be in the low 80's today.  Third, I've been following severe setups here for a long time and it's very very rare for the Atlanta metro to be squarely in the bullseye like the above STP map forecast is showing for tomorrow.  Very rare.  99% of the time it would be centered in eastern Mississippi and western Alabama, so what's most concerning is the population that will potentially be under the bullseye tomorrow.  Sure the SE is more populated than the Great Plains and cities such as Tuscaloosa, Jackson, and Birmingham are sizeable metro areas, but that's nothing compared to the area encompassed by Atlanta.  If this holds true, this may be a very rare situation.

- Buck

I second the rarity of Atlanta being in the bullseye of a major outbreak.  When was the last time Atlanta ended up in a high risk?

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Hey guys! I actually created an account just to post during this event! I'm in the southern tip of South Carolina, so hopefully things aren't going to be too crazy in these parts. We rarely get much of anything anyway. 

Seems like the SPC is ready to pull the trigger on a high risk tomorrow!

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2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I second the rarity of Atlanta being in the bullseye of a major outbreak.  When was the last time Atlanta ended up in a high risk?

I can't remember Atlanta being included but the closest I can recall is march 15, 2008

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March 2008 with the Atlanta tornado that hit Vine City, Downtown, Old Fourth Ward, and Cabbagetown was the last time the Metro Atlanta area was forecasted for a high risk severe weather event.

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4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I second the rarity of Atlanta being in the bullseye of a major outbreak.  When was the last time Atlanta ended up in a high risk?

March 2008.

2 minutes ago, melonknee said:

I can't remember Atlanta being included but the closest I can recall is march 15, 2008

That was the last time.

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