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Central PA - December 2017


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MD 623 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017

   Areas affected...western New York through central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 011741Z - 011845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storm threat with damaging wind and a few tornadoes
   should continue to expand eastward into western NY and central PA
   this afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...Organized line of storms with embedded mesovortices and
   bowing segments from Lake Erie through extreme eastern OH is moving
   east at around 40 kt. VWP data and special Pittsburg RAOB show very
   favorable wind profiles for embedded supercells with large 0-1 km
   hodographs. Latest visible imagery also show numerous cloud breaks
   which will promote further destabilization of the boundary layer
   with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41077867 42167927 43067828 42867709 40577680 39797736
               39757878 41077867 
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Will be really interesting to see if anything discrete can pop up.  Out ahead of the main line the environment is becoming favorable as breaks of sun have occurred and hodographs are becoming quite enlarged.  The issue, however, is right now we only have the main line which does have embedded pockets of rotation which could become further enhanced as the line moves into the more favorable environment.  LCL's are actually lower too across central PA (down to 750m).  

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Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN COUNTY...

At 417 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located

near Betula, moving east at 60 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated strong rotation. 

Um, that's not the requirement for a PDS warning.

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This has to be one of the longest issued Severe Thunderstorm Warning message I've seen.

452 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Centre County in central Pennsylvania...
  Clinton County in north central Pennsylvania...

* Until 645 PM EDT

* At 451 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Emporium to Prince Gallitzin State Park, moving
  east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
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Just starting to get hit with this line of storms, it's already been pretty breezy out ahead of it. Def am somewhat worried about some of the pine trees.

At any rate, damaging winds and a potential QLCS spinup appears to be the main threat at this juncture with this severe line. Shear and helicity are very high in central PA as per mesoanalysis. Fortunately CAPE numbers are fairly low, lending to a good bit of cloud cover over most of the region today. This could have really been a significant tornado threat otherwise with good heating and probable discrete supercells. Will have to continue to keep an eye out as this presses towards the Susquehanna Valley. 

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Tornado Warning west Harrisburg on the supercell, the environment over the Susquahanna Valley is favorable for significant tornadoes, as this storms moves out of the mountains. Already has an very strong signature

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13 minutes ago, JoJo said:

Tornado Warning west Harrisburg on the supercell, the environment over the Susquahanna Valley is favorable for significant tornadoes, as this storms moves out of the mountains. Already has an very strong signature

It should miss hbg proper to the NW, but that cell looks nasty.

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The wind was mostly a non-issue around here with the line of severe storms but certainly a heavy rainfall with pretty robust runoff. The next valley over into NW Huntingdon County was a different story though. Apparently the wind got tapped down there.. as some spots were a bit of a wreck. Route 45 between Spruce Creek and Franklinville (roughly 20ish miles SW of State College) had multiple trees down. The one road that enters into Rothrock State Forest a couple miles north of the village of Spruce Creek had approx at my count 8 pines that were sheared by the winds (definitely straight line). One of the trees was a 75-100ft Hemlock tree. Fortunately none of the big Hemlocks around the place my family has down there across the creek from the state forest/picnic area got taken out.. cuz they likely would have hit the house. My lowball estimate on windspeed would be 60-70mph or so type winds. I didn't see the type of widespread downed trees on that Route 45 corridor that would indicate to me that the winds were much higher than that. Still though.. it was pretty notable. 

 

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