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MAG5035

Central PA - December 2017

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7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yeah. I think the precip field weakens once you get above I-80. I like where MAG sits with this one and areas like Altoona and Johnstown to State College. Harrisburg is on the fence. Not a whole lot of accumulating precip, but could be a little slick in CPA down to MD line if everything falls right. 

Unfortunately I'm out of state for the weekend so I'll be missing out on whatever happens haha. As you guys mentioned QPF doesn't look too impressive, so it will be a minor event from that perspective. However the prospect of a wintry mix and ZR will be one to keep an eye on given how cold temps will be this weekend preceding the event. 12z NAM seems a bit quicker than 12z Euro/GFS with precip, making it more of an overnight Sunday into Monday morning thing. It's also more robust with precip especially in the Sus Valley. 12z GFS and Euro don't get much at all into the Susquehanna Valley. So we'll have to see how that shakes out getting into the short/near term. The last event kinda snuck up on being much more robust with precip. 

I do think we will see the first winter headlines of the season at least in the Laurel's/central counties...likely advisories for a potential of a trace of ZR. Keep in mind the NWS introduced a pretty simplified breakdown of their winter headlines. Gone are specific freezing rain advisories for instance, straight zr events on the more minor scale are now going to be categorized as a regular winter weather advisory. Not sure how I feel about that particular one, given a minor freezing rain event can have some of the most severe impacts from a traffic standpoint...but I can see the need for simplifying headlines to get the message across.. I do believe they will be issuing more specific products for snow squalls this year as well, sort of like severe thunderstorm warnings. 

nws-winter-alerts-diagram.jpg.3b4448965e4171db275bd3595f21bdd4.jpg

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Gone are specific freezing rain advisories for instance, straight zr events on the more minor scale are now going to be categorized as a regular winter weather advisory. Not sure how I feel about that particular one, given a minor freezing rain event can have some of the most severe impacts from a traffic standpoint...

I don't agree with lumping straight freezing rain events in with sleet or snow. Like you said, even light zr can have a major impact on traffic. One only has to look back a few years to the disasters that happened in Philly on the Schuylkill Expressway or South Jersey on the turnpike. Very light glazes that had severe implications.

The right information won't get out if people aren't correctly informed. Many non-weather folks only look at the headline and don't read the body of the text, and won't realize exactly what they might be facing out on the roads.

 

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17 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Not sure how I feel about that particular one, given a minor freezing rain event can have some of the most severe impacts from a traffic standpoint...but I can see the need for simplifying headlines to get the message across.. I do believe they will be issuing more specific products for snow squalls this year as well, sort of like severe thunderstorm warnings. 

That seems really weird. Pretty sure the general public can understand the concept behind freezing rain a lot better than the dynamics of a snow squall event. And both are much more dangerous than when we get 2" of snow from a clipper.

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Nice to see the crew gettin back to the boards....

No matter what tonight brings and how the advisories change (which does seem a bit wonky to me), its nice to see sensible fall weather and talk of winter precip.  

Looking at the overnight ensembles...Turkey week still looks like a fun and active time.  Long way out, but still liking that period for some fun as continuity still seems pretty good IMO.

major indicies also looking good

PNA trending +

Nao and Ao trending -

are all ++++++'s  for a troughiness in the east w/ chances at love from above.

Happy Sunday all.

Nut

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Yeah. Tonight's storm system looks like it's going to be dryer than your grandmother's... well, let's not earn a ban on our first day back this season. But facts are facts: that stuff's pretty dry.

In other cold-related, Wmsptwx is bitching (not really) news: Being outside for a few minutes at a shot yesterday at Gettysburg National Park in a light hoodie and shorts made me realize that as I am getting older, I'm liking the cold less. If this issue gets any worse, I will promptly blow the brains out of the top of my skull. I may be a lot of things, but somebody who hates the cold is not going to be one of them.

Also, happy November. Where in the hell did the year go? It feels like I was just born yesterday (at dusk, just so I can say that I was in fact NOT born last night), and it feels like tomorrow I will be getting day drunk and going Black Friday (that's racially insensitive, I shouldn't be saying that mess, dammit, but African-American Friday shopping is too much of a debacle to type) shopping.

Going to be a long season. Come fight me, one a yas.

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On 11/10/2017 at 1:16 PM, maytownpawx said:

You'll be freezing when those lots open at 7am tomorrow. At least by kick off the sun and relative lack of wind will help...plus it will help being packed in like sardines in the 'Beav. Just hope the dude sitting next to you isn't as big as I am. :) 

It wasn't all that bad, I think it was 15 when we parked. Without the wind like you said helped.

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:maphot:

weenie watches to be hoisted this weekend...if trend continues.  Both GFS op and ensemble look rather similar at 500 panels, so maybe something to keep an eye on.

Hopefully a red tagger can confirm, but I like what my untrained eyes see.  Ops are dangerous this far out so it can look rather diff run to run, but verbatim shows a vort passing just south of M/D line, so at least we have that....for now..

 

Hope you dont mind my weenie insight.  Was perusing middays so I just threw my .01 in.

Nut

 

gfs_asnow24_us_37.png

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Its been awhile we've had any snow on T-giving. or even had any for the first day of Buck. My retired neighbor behind me stopped by my garage yesterday afternoon  on his way from the post office, he said all signs point to a white thanksgiving. I will add, i think he had started early on his New castle Ale and Bushmills Irish Whiskey as he made no sense :wacko:

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Its been awhile we've had any snow on T-giving. or even had any for the first day of Buck. My retired neighbor behind me stopped by my garage yesterday afternoon  on his way from the post office, he said all signs point to a white thanksgiving. I will add, i think he had started early on his New castle Ale and Bushmills Irish Whiskey as he made no sense :wacko:

The storm back in 2014 on the Wednesday before All Gluttons Day whitened the ground, right? I was out toward Huntingdon on holiday and remember getting a sizeable thumping with the valley having accumulation problems.

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10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

The storm back in 2014 on the Wednesday before All Gluttons Day whitened the ground, right? I was out toward Huntingdon on holiday and remember getting a sizeable thumping with the valley having accumulation problems.

You're correct. I just pulled my notes. 

November 24, 2014 68 degrees

November 26, 2014 1.5" Snow

November 29, 2014  Trace Snow

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Changing the subject for a moment: I am planning on coming to PSU this week end for the Nebraska game. How bad is the rain supposed to be?

 

Thanks in advance

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7 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I just pulled my notes.

I knew it. I knew you kept a diary. I'm picturing a Lisa-Frank neon blue and pink diary from the early nineties with the logo crossed out with electrical tape and "Notes" written with black magic marker. There's also a logo of your favorite football team and some IPA you drink on the weekends to make it more manly. But it's a diary.

November 28, 2014 entry:

Dear Diary,

 

Today, Canderson said I had a pretty butt. I don't know how I feel about that, but I think he's probably just drunk. Although he says it a lot. He must drink a lot. AtomixWx drinks a lot and he never said none of that. I think he likes Wmpstwx, because you know how when you pick on somebody, it tends to be a result of you liking them? I think that's what's going on here, even though I think there's a better way to go about this than calling somebody "felchbreath" all the time. I need to look that word up on the Urban Dictionary. Anyway, it's cold out. I was warm the other day. It was warm, too. That's not just a me thing, but the Earth was pretty warm. It was a nice Earth day, and now it's not. I'm hungry. Turkey day is coming. I hope none of those idiots on the wife's side have become a vegan over the year. I don't know how I could handle a dealin with somebody who just doesn't want to live anymore. Snownut on the weather forum is talkin about snow. He likes to talk about snow. He likes to talk about snow as much as Canderson says I gots a pretty butt. These two things aren't linked, but it is weird. Anyway, it's getting dark now and this bit is nearing its end. I'll talk to you again tomorrow.

 

XoXo,

 

Sauss

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23 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Changing the subject for a moment: I am planning on coming to PSU this week end for the Nebraska game. How bad is the rain supposed to be?

 

Thanks in advance

Doesn't look like it will be too much to deal with. It's going to be raw feeling, but as noted earlier in this thread, you'll be plenty warm up there.

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45 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I knew it. I knew you kept a diary. I'm picturing a Lisa-Frank neon blue and pink diary from the early nineties with the logo crossed out with electrical tape and "Notes" written with black magic marker. There's also a logo of your favorite football team and some IPA you drink on the weekends to make it more manly. But it's a diary.

November 28, 2014 entry:

Dear Diary,

 

Today, Canderson said I had a pretty butt. I don't know how I feel about that, but I think he's probably just drunk. Although he says it a lot. He must drink a lot. AtomixWx drinks a lot and he never said none of that. I think he likes Wmpstwx, because you know how when you pick on somebody, it tends to be a result of you liking them? I think that's what's going on here, even though I think there's a better way to go about this than calling somebody "felchbreath" all the time. I need to look that word up on the Urban Dictionary. Anyway, it's cold out. I was warm the other day. It was warm, too. That's not just a me thing, but the Earth was pretty warm. It was a nice Earth day, and now it's not. I'm hungry. Turkey day is coming. I hope none of those idiots on the wife's side have become a vegan over the year. I don't know how I could handle a dealin with somebody who just doesn't want to live anymore. Snownut on the weather forum is talkin about snow. He likes to talk about snow. He likes to talk about snow as much as Canderson says I gots a pretty butt. These two things aren't linked, but it is weird. Anyway, it's getting dark now and this bit is nearing its end. I'll talk to you again tomorrow.

 

XoXo,

 

Sauss

dude....Just rolling over here.  Bellylaughin the whole time. 

 

Oh I cant wait for when we have "something" to talk about....

 

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looks like 2 shots at at flakeage pre turk day and buck season opener have something to watch for ponts north and west for some fluffage falling from the sky.  Even if only mood flakes.....it'll be awesome.  GFS snowfall through 240 ticked up a pinch....(not that we should ever look at them)...but i had to.  Snowbelts best bet for now.

Nut

 

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11 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I knew it. I knew you kept a diary. I'm picturing a Lisa-Frank neon blue and pink diary from the early nineties with the logo crossed out with electrical tape and "Notes" written with black magic marker. There's also a logo of your favorite football team and some IPA you drink on the weekends to make it more manly. But it's a diary.

November 28, 2014 entry:

Dear Diary,

 

Today, Canderson said I had a pretty butt. I don't know how I feel about that, but I think he's probably just drunk. Although he says it a lot. He must drink a lot. AtomixWx drinks a lot and he never said none of that. I think he likes Wmpstwx, because you know how when you pick on somebody, it tends to be a result of you liking them? I think that's what's going on here, even though I think there's a better way to go about this than calling somebody "felchbreath" all the time. I need to look that word up on the Urban Dictionary. Anyway, it's cold out. I was warm the other day. It was warm, too. That's not just a me thing, but the Earth was pretty warm. It was a nice Earth day, and now it's not. I'm hungry. Turkey day is coming. I hope none of those idiots on the wife's side have become a vegan over the year. I don't know how I could handle a dealin with somebody who just doesn't want to live anymore. Snownut on the weather forum is talkin about snow. He likes to talk about snow. He likes to talk about snow as much as Canderson says I gots a pretty butt. These two things aren't linked, but it is weird. Anyway, it's getting dark now and this bit is nearing its end. I'll talk to you again tomorrow.

 

XoXo,

 

Sauss

dude, i'm crying here. 

and i do keep a weather diaryB) see attached 

11 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Changing the subject for a moment: I am planning on coming to PSU this week end for the Nebraska game. How bad is the rain supposed to be?

 

Thanks in advance

its probably going to be in the low 40s which will seem like a summer day compared to when i was there Saturday and other games i've been to. Having said that, if its real windy, depending where your seats are, might be raw.

weather.jpg

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True signs of winter showing up now: (forget about looking at models, reading the Farmer's Almanac, or bending over to look at the color of a woolie bear's coat. After a couple of days away from the boards, this is all I needed to see;

  • Atomixwx is back talking about parties and beer
  • Wmsptwx is poo-hooing the weather
  • Nutter's got his snowmobile emoji going

We just need a little wind now so Canderson can report on trees down on Front Street, and we should be in a mid-winter groove...

 

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22 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Doesn't look like it will be too much to deal with. It's going to be raw feeling, but as noted earlier in this thread, you'll be plenty warm up there.

Thank you so much. Not as bad as I feared.

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11 hours ago, sauss06 said:

dude, i'm crying here. 

and i do keep a weather diaryB) see attached 

its probably going to be in the low 40s which will seem like a summer day compared to when i was there Saturday and other games i've been to. Having said that, if its real windy, depending where your seats are, might be raw.

weather.jpg

Thank you so much. My seats are in WG . Last row. I actually spend the game  standing with my back leaning on the press box.

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I know I’m late to party over here (Been traveling and giving training sessions for work), but I just read Atomix post and had to excuse myself outside a diner I’m having breakfast at. That was just loltastic.

As for weather, thinking we’ll see flakes in parts of the state around Thanksgiving time frame. More mood stuff than formidable accumulation. I’m still very interested in what’s down the line in December. The PAC is likely the key component to watch next few weeks. If we see a flip to more -epo/+pna look beginning in early Dec, chances are the long wave pattern would yield a few opportunities downstream for us to see some short waves dip down into low latitudes East of Mississippi. Blocking is subject to variability, and I mentioned in my forecast here a few weeks ago I thought blocking would occur, but remain more transient than what we strive for. I could be wrong, but historically, it’s tough to get a long standing ridge over the top. Very seldom has it happened in the past 10 years. Going with continuity there. Either way, I see us tracking more than just pattern changes next month.


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