Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,470
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Greenmachine1123
    Newest Member
    Greenmachine1123
    Joined
Ginx snewx

Millennial kid of April Fools obs and pics

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

And that Euro frame was for 6z vs. 5z on the CC... we might actually be ahead of the game...

yup good point .. after daylights savings 6z = 2 am 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why anyone in their right mind would be conservative.

This is going to crush it.

yeah, we just hope the rgem has a clue .. cause the 0z NAM / GFS were certainly nowhere near as robust 

Hopefully the Euro doesn't disappoint in 30 mins.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drove from Waterbury where it was raining through Prospect and it was moderate freezing rain, freezing fog and windy 31F, down through Hamden & North Haven where it turned back to all rain and 34F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One huge and simple reason for the ramping up from conservative to bullish in eastern SNE: rates.

 

Much more believable that we wash out intruding warm layers if we have intense rates. In my mind, this event was always about the CCB, and that looked kind of meager on most guidance including the RGEM before tonight.

Here's one good example of how guidance has ramped up tonight: for the 9z-15z timeframe, RGEM qpf output in Boston:

     4/1 0z: > 1.5"

     3/31 18z: ~ .8"

     3/31 12z: ~ .7"

     3/31 6z: ~ .5"

And for this context and lead time, I believe that much more than the 0z GFS which is silly dry. I expect Euro to follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where are you guys getting your webcams? 511 or another source?

And any plans for sleep? I was gonna squeeze in a few hours and wake up for the changeover, probably after Euro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totals for the balance:

Bouchard Belter.png

 

It's deceptive though... on balance, that 0z Kuchera looks like a retreat from 12z Euro run, but in fact that's because the earlier run was much wetter in the 0z-6z Sat timeframe (the crap we've seen tonight)

In fact, this 0z Euro run is better in the 12z-18z timeframe, and that's when I think we will have a better shot of accumulating snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems I'm in a good spot for this 1.  8" 31f

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guidance doesn't have RS line crashing significantly before the 850mb low nears our longitude... on the 4z HRRR, that's ~ 10-12z... then it unleashes on eastern SNE 12z-18z

A few hours of sleep now makes sense

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, a far cry from the event twenty years ago but looks like some spots will still do well!

I remember going to bed in '97 with about 8" on the ground in Southborough, waking up the next morning to nearly three feet was insane! The snow was too thick for our snowblower to chew through, spent all day shoveling the driveway -  could only shovel one layered foot at a time - and then a path for our adult German Shepherd so he could do his business in the backyard. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×