Brian1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ugh, they did so. This was expected until the storm bombs in a few hours. If Im reading your posts correctly 24" for you else its a bust lol? When do you see delco area flipping back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: no I said 14 to 18 here... if we sleet for hours, there's no way we get there and a foot may even be pushing it. most models didn't flip us until 6 or 7 am from what I saw. Going off of 6z HRRR this is the hour we mix, then drop back in to all snow for 4-5 hours. A close to mix (probably actually mix the way this has gone) for 2 hours, then another 2 hours of snow before mixing for good. Again, that was last hour's run, let's see what this hour says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ralph, correct me if Im wrong but it looks like the Low is just starting to take over right about Cape Hatteras where the models had it correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Definitely pingers mixing in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Ralph, correct me if Im wrong but it looks like the Low is just starting to take over right about Cape Hatteras where the models had it correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-81.72,37.37,1821 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Ralph, correct me if Im wrong but it looks like the Low is just starting to take over right about Cape Hatteras where the models had it correct? SLP looks to still be inland, 75 miles west of Nags Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Bluescat1 said: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-81.72,37.37,1821 Thats an awesome view Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, shemATC said: SLP looks to still be inland, 75 miles west of Nags Head Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 All sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 50/50 snow/sleet mix now. Latest hrrr weaker with storm which doesnt allow sleet/snow line to collapse S and E. Per that model verbatim this run areas currently seeing sleet have seen the worst of the snow and are in for quite a sleet fest remainder of storm. For the first time this entire tracking and event I have serious concerns even up here in Bucks. We could struggle to hit 5" IF the hrrr is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: All sleet.. Yeah i just read the New AFD from Mt Holly dosent sound great for the folks S&E of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 So I think we need to look at this differently than normal. On radar returns it seems any time we see 35dbz+ it's sleet, but 30dbz we stay snow. Usually we root for higher dbz for higher snow rates. This storm it appears the higher returns just means there is sleet in there. 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 50/50 snow/sleet mix now. Latest hrrr weaker with storm which doesnt allow sleet/snow line to collapse S and E. Per that model verbatim this run areas currently seeing sleet have seen the worst of the snow and are in for quite a sleet fest remainder of storm. For the first time this entire tracking and event I have serious concerns even up here in Bucks. We could struggle to hit 5" IF the hrrr is to be believed. Yet, starting from 3am it says we'll get 21" of "something". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 So I think we need to look at this differently than normal. On radar returns it seems any time we see 35dbz+ it's sleet, but 30dbz we stay snow. Usually we root for higher dbz for higher snow rates. This storm it appears the higher returns just means there is sleet in there. Yet, starting from 3am it says we'll get 21" of "something". LOLLOL!At least we can laugh about it. If the hrrr is right then the NAM claims victory and actually led the way. I will admit defeat if that happens but we'll see what happens as the storm progresses. Just took a peek at latest NAM against my own rule of thumb and its a total disaster. Sleet storm would make the great Valentines sleet fest look like child's play. Oh man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 what a disaster. gfs and euro both epically failed. new hrrr pretty much is the dagger here. unreal,18 to 24" forecasted this morning and it's looking like we ll be lucky to see 6". even named rgem and 12k nam had more snow than that. just unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I'd be curious to find out if all the qpf amounts busted also, or was it just straight up p-type failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: what a disaster. gfs and euro both epically failed. new hrrr pretty much is the dagger here. unreal,18 to 24" forecasted this morning and it's looking like we ll be lucky to see 6". even named rgem and 12k nam had more snow than that. just unbelievable. Where are you located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: what a disaster. gfs and euro both epically failed. new hrrr pretty much is the dagger here. unreal,18 to 24" forecasted this morning and it's looking like we ll be lucky to see 6". even named rgem and 12k nam had more snow than that. just unbelievable. Let the storm play out.If you are still all sleet in an hour or so....ride your bike off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just got this from WPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0292.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steigs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 inches snowing snowing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Isn't it a little early to be calling things off? Or am I just blinded by the ecstasy of having a snow day here at Penn? all mesoscale models have it staying as sleet...so no. they've been right this whole storm so far, don't see why it will suddenly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Where are you located levittown pa. lower bucks county in a blizzard warning LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 8" here piling up fast not much wind yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: levittown pa. lower bucks county in a blizzard warning LOL Not a good sign . I think I will go tonsleet even in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: levittown pa. lower bucks county in a blizzard warning LOL Have they not dropped that warning yet? Seriously, no way we can possibly hit blizzard criteria at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 what a disaster. gfs and euro both epically failed. new hrrr pretty much is the dagger here. unreal,18 to 24" forecasted this morning and it's looking like we ll be lucky to see 6". even named rgem and 12k nam had more snow than that. just unbelievable. Yep, I was very hopeful all along but the proof is in the sleet line which was the wild card all along. Even York to the Lehigh Valley are in question now on latest short range guidance. People are going to be PISSED when they dont see those enormous totals that were forecast. I should have stuck to my original call of 7-14" here but even that may have been generous. We'll see what happens but radar looks like a pump of warmth coming from the S/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 If Im not back in an hour, send someone to find me. Im going to find Lucy and do something I should have done a long time ago! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I wonder when blizzard warnings change to ice storm warnings here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, I was very hopeful all along but the proof is in the sleet line which was the wild card all along. Even York to the Lehigh Valley are in question now on latest short range guidance. People are going to be PISSED when they dont see those enormous totals that were forecast. I should have stuck to my original call of 7-14" here but even that may have been generous. We'll see what happens but radar looks like a pump of warmth coming from the S/SE. yup there will definitely be outrage at this. entire state of nj is closed tomorrow and right now it's looking like roads will just mostly be wet in the morning. not to mention all other businesses that closes ahead of time. this one may go down as worse than March 01 at least that one had signs of being a bust. forecasters did a very very poor job of mentioning this being a possibility. everyone pretty much threw out these sky high totals and said we may mix for a hour. already been a hour mixing here and no signs of letting up. just a very very poor forecast. this will be a case study of years to come. also another example of a March snowstorm failing expectations. There's a reason most of Se pa has never seen over a foot in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 90% of the time the warm air goes further west than predicted...never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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