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3/13- 3/14 Winter Storm Threat


Buddy1987
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20 minutes ago, Disc said:

Blacksburg's "most likely snowfall" map.

5640d59b154c474cb0c83065665b3e38.png

Looks like your "tainted" forecast aka sleet! I did post something in the MA forum, whereas if the northern stream continues to trend weaker  it could def allow the southern stream energy to get cranking as progged and throw the deform band more westward, or at least expand the overall radar presentation come mon/tues. Will be interesting to see 0z run tonight. Obv heavier rates and loss of insulation mon evening could throw a surprise up this way. Models tend to underdo the expansion of the qpf when a storm of this magnitude begins to develop.

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6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

They're really banking on the warm nose being overcome up this way (as well as actually getting decent precip). 

If we get the heavy rates during the peak of the warming at 800mb, I can see a good portion of it being snow, but I still think we will have mixing regardless. If the rates ease up, we'll likely flip completely over to a mixed bag of precip. So if we take the NAM with it's heavy rates, their map seems reasonable. The GFS, however, has lighter precip which concerns me -- That would likely lead to a bunch of slop and it won't amount to much.

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If we get heavy rates during the peak of the warming at 800mb, I can see it being most, if not all snow. If the rates ease up, we'll likely flip back over to a mixed bag of precip. So if we take the NAM with it's heavy rates, their map seems reasonable. The GFS, however, has lighter precip which concerns me -- That would likely lead to a bunch of slop and it won't amount to much.



The warm nose is much less pronounced on the gfs, though.

The euro agrees with the lesser precip which worries me. Especially with the NAMs tendency to overdo rates.

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9 minutes ago, Disc said:

If we get the heavy rates during the peak of the warming at 800mb, I can see a good portion of it being snow, but I still think we will have mixing regardless. If the rates ease up, we'll likely flip completely over to a mixed bag of precip. So if we take the NAM with it's heavy rates, their map seems reasonable. The GFS, however, has lighter precip which concerns me -- That would likely lead to a bunch of slop and it won't amount to much.

This tho. That look at h5 I really believe the radar will look better than what is progged now. There is almost no more northern stream interference. Im hoping the GFS can improve in the next couple model cycles.

USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_054.gif

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52 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Problem is the weak rates and the subsequent 850s that come with those weak rates down your way. You have some pretty good elevation though correct? 

well thanks, maybe it would trend in our favor more, I would love to see that happen right on the heels of this first event.  you don't see that to often unless you live in the NE of course.

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6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The later/no phase really hurts the w-NC areas. Still time though, still 60 hours out.

 

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_060_0500.gif

 

 

Trend as of right now is more in our favor imo. Now if 0z comes in and incorporates the ULL more again then its game over south of me and predominately around me as well.

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Blacksburg agrees with the mixed bag of precip we were just discussing.

 

Examination of ensemble and plume forecasts showed nearly as many
members indicating freezing rain as indicated snow for locations
south of I-64. This pattern resembles a storm back on Feb 14, 2007.
During that event there was mixed precipitation including snow,
sleet and freezing rain. Will be adding more sleet and freezing rain
in for Monday night based on Bufkit forecast soundings. At this time
confidence is higher with the precipitation type than amounts.
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17 minutes ago, fritschy said:

well thanks, maybe it would trend in our favor more, I would love to see that happen right on the heels of this first event.  you don't see that to often unless you live in the NE of course.

Used to live in NW CT. Absolutely awesome to see a storm like this. Then when the snow would get all sandy and salty and ugly from cleanup you get a strong alberta clipper that goes underneath you and rapidly strengthens and you end up with an additional 3-6" on top of your bombogenesis noreaster.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Trend as of right now is more in our favor imo. Now if 0z comes in and incorporates the ULL more again then its game over south of me and predominately around me as well.

For ROA you should be in good shape to see atleast some snow, if not sizeable.  That should be all snow for ROA on the UK...from  the million tweets showing the EPS snowfall you look to be in great shape too. Good luck!  

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

For ROA you should be in good shape to see atleast some snow, if not sizeable.  That should be all snow for ROA on the UK...from  the million tweets showing the EPS snowfall you look to be in great shape too. Good luck!  

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

 

 

Thanks man. Gonna be close for sure. Encouraging to see the wetter trends coming back again.

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4 minutes ago, JoshM said:

GFS also keeps areas around the foothills and Western NC Piedmont below freezing at the surface. Could have a little glaze. Has been trending colder over the last few runs.

gfs_T2m_seus_10.png

CMC and GGEM are absolute bombs!! That would help funnel the cold air in for places further south southwest of me. 

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well on to this one, which at the moment looks to be a mixed bag for wnc if that, I keep reading that the trends are colder each run so wouldn't take much to be snow, we'll see.  if the storm is that big going up the coast it would have to funnel cold air down thru sw and south of the storm I would think.

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GSP is saying in they're HWO they may have to put up a WSW for the NC Mtns. and that us in the valleys could see a couple of inches out of this storm going up the coast, freezing rain, sleet and snow right now for the valleys starting tomorrow. Higher Mtns. could get six inches out of the storm but they need a couple of more model runs before biting on that.

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Interesting to see the NAM and now the RGEM coming in further south with the ull.  I would have thought it would have helped w-NC...hopefully the GFS/Euro improve.  At 36 RGEM appears to have a quicker phase too.

593_100.gif&key=8ebf13c1bd727e05ff30043d04c772aba43817529d1a3cbf2e33ef446bd6dd76



Want to do the GFS PBP?! Very optimistic for this one in Boone


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18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Interesting to see the NAM and now the RGEM coming in further south with the ull.  I would have thought it would have helped w-NC...hopefully the GFS/Euro improve.  At 36 RGEM appears to have a quicker phase too.

593_100.gif

The ull was almost non existent on this run. Agreed tho mych further south. I would think 850s would get worked out in that case with a bombing low riding the coast. Other models come in with a quicker phase and ull that is more south and i say gso and blacksburg pull the plug and potentially issue a watch to c.y.a

Edit: I am unsure which wfo covers boone and the mountains. 

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