Low-topped Convection March 1st, 2017

[Typhoon Tip]

SPC has expanded it's 'MRGL' circumvallate a little more...now engulfing more of NYS and all the way E to ORH in Mass...  

Prior, it was relegated to just western MA. 

One thing I might watch for (I haven't actually read their discussions re above...) is more theta-e advection than was modeled prior.  I was just noticing a nice bulge in DP into the MV and western OV regions, and on-going... there are broken regions of moderate to heavy rain/thunder demarcating that area of richer DPs against the retreating rotted polar air currently E of that region. 

Typical climo for us is to have such a region of rain and overrunning convection pour across the area overnights ...then, dawns soupy with sky rocketing temperatures ... Basically, powdered over production just add sunshine - 

This has the hallmarks of that sort of total evolution with that rain region presenting a diffused warm boundary and will actively and uninhibited advect across the region tonight and early tomorrow...  Looking at the NAM grids, the sky should open up with barotropic mixing during the morning tomorrow.  This is only March 1 tomorrow, and we are talking the NAM: those two aspect impose limitations.  

[Cold Miser]

lol. Nobody here wishes for death from these storms.  NOBODY.  But as weather enthusiasts, I can't imagine that the thought of landscape and possible (un-inhabited) structural destruction does not at least cross the mind as intriguing on some level to all of us. ...The power of nature is part of what brings us here.  Some F3 ripping through an empty pasture up in Mass might be cool to look at on radar and through the eyes of some amateur videographer, but one can't deny the desire to see the true power of a storm tearing through the woods or empty buildings.  

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blinders.

weather is always more exciting when you don't personally get damage but its tempting fate, but hey that's what we do as fanatics, observe, report and marvel at the power. I am positive Kevin would never wish harm on anyone but its virtually impossible to get Tors, Canes without personal damage or injury although that Mansfield CT  one a couple of years ago found a way.

[Hoth]

Some pretty solid SRH values on the NAM tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Nobody here wishes for death from these storms.  NOBODY.  But as weather enthusiasts, I can't imagine that the thought of landscape and possible (un-inhabited) structural destruction does not at least cross the mind as intriguing on some level to all of us. ...The power of nature is part of what brings us here.  Some F3 ripping through an empty pasture up in Mass might be cool to look at on radar and through the eyes of some amateur videographer, but one can't deny the desire to see the true power of a storm tearing through the woods or empty buildings.  

Thank you. They can pretend all they want they don't think about those things and the thrill and exhilaration they get from it..we all see right those facades

 

I have said this many times, I would give up an entire winter of snow if i could personally witness a tornado ripping across a hillside or heavily wooded area. One day I hope to go out west on a chase once the kids are grown and out of the house

[weatherwiz]

i really wonder if not having much ulvl support from jet region will sort of hinder things...even lack of good jet entrance region at 500mb.  

[weatherwiz]

Given the degree of the LLJ jet we really are going to have to generate a tremendous amount of low-level buoyancy in order to establish updrafts which will be strong enough not to get ripped apart by the strong shear.  The forecasted instability parameters I think would be very close...some disconnect between the GFS and the NAM but if the NAM were right we may have enough.  Another question is what happens in the morning...if any moistening of the mid-levels occur the lapse rates go to hell and its event cancel.  

The NAM and GFS also differ heavily on the 500mb vorticity field with the NAM generating pretty substantial pieces of energy moving right over SNE late in the afternoon which would be the focus for forcing/lift...at the same time the shear/instability seemed to be maximized.  

The "tornado" potential too is a bit convoluted...while helicity parameters are very good I think much of the helicity is derived from very strong speed shear and there is a lacking of directional shear, even in the lowest 0-1km.  While we could still develop mesocyclones it will be tough to get the rotation to become more vertical.  What this means is the enhanced helicity may just really enhance damaging wind potential as well as large hail potential (if an updraft can grow tall enough).  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Nobody here wishes for death from these storms.  NOBODY.  But as weather enthusiasts, I can't imagine that the thought of landscape and possible (un-inhabited) structural destruction does not at least cross the mind as intriguing on some level to all of us. ...The power of nature is part of what brings us here.  Some F3 ripping through an empty pasture up in Mass might be cool to look at on radar and through the eyes of some amateur videographer, but one can't deny the desire to see the true power of a storm tearing through the woods or empty buildings.  

Oy vay...this debate again.

Wanton drama in natural settings -vs- the morality of knowing that it is virtually impossible to crave that drama and expect a disconnect from harming innocence... 

And around and around we go. 

Truth be told, there isn't a way to disconnect that. We really cannot have one without the other, because there is no conscience at the working end of the destructive dial.  We are but the petty observers of the maelstrom, one that is infinitely fickle and that's just the 'nature' of the beast. 

Having said that ... I once watched a documentary on some informational entertainment television...be it the Sci "fi" Channel or Sixty Idiots... etc... that discussed this very same debate.  What resonated with me is that it's all about exploration? 

Exploring nature is an attribute that is hugely instinctual, and equally cannot be disconnected in all humans.  It is native to our species to be curious about the natural world.  "What's over the next hill or around the corner of the next pass."  

This all taps into evolution, and why we are so successful as a species; it is because we are driven to explore surroundings, which intrinsically sets us up for successes because we can procure a vaster array of available resources - other organisms that are lesser developed in this capacity are wholly relegated to the immediate provisions of their supportive ecosystems.  We create our own ecosystems...but now we're getting more into Anthropology.

Exploration is a much vaster endeavor than merely what is over the next hill, or around the corner of the next pass, too. Testing the environmen is a motivation that really encompasses our species entire outlook on reality, and everthing in it.  Why do you think we went to the moon?  Send Rovers to Mars... Seek Extra Terrestrial intelligence and explore new worlds, and why there is even a field called Deep Field Astronomy to begin with?  All these multitude of disciplines are forged out of a simple evolutionary/instinctive drive that cannot really be disconnected and/or turned off in human beings: Exploration. 

"Wanting" to witness  tornado, or a hurricane, or a crippling ice storm, or a windy day, or high heat and low cold... Earthquakes, Pandemics, ...asteroid impacts and Wall Street economic cataclysms... It's all in the same cloud of motivation to explore the boundary of reality. Emerging for all that is, 'what can' and 'what can't' happen. 

We can't answer the fundamental questions about reality and nature, and what can and cannot affect/effect on us without pushing those bounds, where quiescent collapses and breaks down to the process of chaos - and in the strife of chaos its self, there are mysteries that cannot be plumbed and explained without the existence of the chaos. 

And around and around we go...  You can't understand tornadoes without a want to see tornadoes - it's not a debate that really has an answer in any moral context, unfortunately.  Perhaps we can reign in the 'want' some, but saying we want to see the destructor without the destruction, ...that's a fantasy.  It can't happen. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I've been in the middle of severe with microburst, don't need to experience it again.  

http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/storms_force_greenfield_to_dec.html

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oy vay...this debate again.

Wanton drama in natural settings -vs- the morality of knowing that it is virtually impossible to crave that drama and expect a disconnect from harming innocence... 

And around and around we go. 

Truth be told, there isn't a way to disconnect that. We really cannot have one without the other, because there is no conscience at the working end of the destructive dial.  We are but the petty observers of the maelstrom, one that is infinitely fickle and that's just the 'nature' of the beast. 

Having said that ... I once watched a documentary on some informational entertainment television...be it the Sci "fi" Channel or Sixty Idiots... etc... that discussed this very same debate.  What resonated with me is that it's all about exploration? 

Exploring nature is an attribute that is hugely instinctual, and equally cannot be disconnected in all humans.  It is native to our species to be curious about the natural world.  "What's over the next hill or around the corner of the next pass."  

This all taps into evolution, and why we are so successful as a species; it is because we are driven to explore surroundings, which intrinsically sets us up for successes because we can procure a vaster array of available resources - other organisms that are lesser developed in this capacity are wholly relegated to the immediate provisions of their supportive ecosystems.  We create our own ecosystems...but now we're getting more into Anthropology.

Exploration is a much vaster endeavor than merely what is over the next hill, or around the corner of the next pass, too. Testing the environmen is a motivation that really encompasses our species entire outlook on reality, and everthing in it.  Why do you think we went to the moon?  Send Rovers to Mars... Seek Extra Terrestrial intelligence and explore new worlds, and why there is even a field called Deep Field Astronomy to begin with?  All these multitude of disciplines are forged out of a simple evolutionary/instinctive drive that cannot really be disconnected and/or turned off in human beings: Exploration. 

"Wanting" to witness  tornado, or a hurricane, or a crippling ice storm, or a windy day, or high heat and low cold... Earthquakes, Pandemics, ...asteroid impacts and Wall Street economic cataclysms... It's all in the same cloud of motivation to explore the boundary of reality. Emerging for all that is, 'what can' and 'what can't' happen. 

We can't answer the fundamental questions about reality and nature, and what can and cannot affect/effect on us without pushing those bounds, where quiescent collapses and breaks down to the process of chaos - and in the strife of chaos its self, there are mysteries that cannot be plumbed and explained without the existence of the chaos. 

And around and around we go...  You can't understand tornadoes without a want to see tornadoes - it's not a debate that really has an answer in any moral context, unfortunately.  Perhaps we can reign in the 'want' some, but saying we want't see the destructor without the destruction, but that's a fantasy.  It can't happen. 

...Summary in less than 30 words, It is in our blood to want and need for discovery and exploration.  We also seek the train wreck, and will rubberneck every time it happens. 

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

You know, one of these days you are going to get your wish, I just hope for your sake it does not come with any deadly consequences.  I'm sure your opinion would change very quickly if the effects were close to home.   Wishing for damage, not a good idea.

 

 

yup couldn't agree more, I really admire his enthusiasm and spirit when it comes to weather but these catastrophic events cost good hard working people their health, money etc....

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...Summary in less than 30 words, It is in our blood to want and need for discovery and exploration.  We also seek the train wreck, and will rubberneck every time it happens. 

BRevity is the soul of wit.

[Hoth]

Mod risk for the OH Valley with the afternoon update.

[weatherwiz]

Noticed models aren't as aggressive with the warmth tomorrow either.  Initially some models were showing potential mid-60's tomorrow but both NAM and GFS keep 2M tmeps down in the lower 60's.  Big difference between 62F and 68F when talking about potential cape values with the lapse rates/dewpoints we will potentially have.  

[weatherwiz]

SLIGHT RISK!!!!!!!!!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

http://

[OceanStWx]

Yikes, GYXGW

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warm temperatures may cause more snow melt and ice movement on the
rivers. This will create the potential for ice jam flooding mainly
on Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. If
storms do form, a few strong storms with the potential for damaging
winds and tornadoes are possible, most likely over southwest New
Hampshire. In addition westerly winds behind this front could gust
close to wind advisory criteria on Thursday.

[Cold Miser]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yikes, GYXGW

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warm temperatures may cause more snow melt and ice movement on the
rivers. This will create the potential for ice jam flooding mainly
on Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. If
storms do form, a few strong storms with the potential for damaging
winds and tornadoes are possible, most likely over southwest New
Hampshire. In addition westerly winds behind this front could gust
close to wind advisory criteria on Thursday.

Uggh. Sounds like a late Morch type warning.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

...Summary in less than 30 words, It is in our blood to want and need for discovery and exploration.  We also seek the train wreck, and will rubberneck every time it happens. 

Heh ...there's deeper dimensions to it all than this.

You're definition is entirely clad...but it's purely functional and lacks any artistry and well...lacks conveyance of underpinnings, which some my appreciate - others... not so much. 

Aside, your second sentence doesn't necessarily follow logically from the first ...the other delivery attempts to bridge that gap. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yikes, GYXGW

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warm temperatures may cause more snow melt and ice movement on the
rivers. This will create the potential for ice jam flooding mainly
on Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. If
storms do form, a few strong storms with the potential for damaging
winds and tornadoes are possible, most likely over southwest New
Hampshire. In addition westerly winds behind this front could gust
close to wind advisory criteria on Thursday.

Not that you don't know this... but I sense (because I'm a jerk...) that people aren't taking these seriously because it's not June 10 at 87/70 with a 110 knotty poking the bear, with 300 shear numbers...   

This isn't having anything to do with that sort of idealized model of convection - which anyone living around these parts should know anyway, the more mechanical forcing process is far more likely around these parts...

 

[weatherwiz]

I'm a little concerned with forcing for tomorrow.  Going to have to rely on a s/w moving through (which the NAM hints at several).  Also looks like the latest NAM keeps best mlvl lapse rates further south and is a tad lower with sfc temps now

[weatherwiz]

Starting to appear that there will be quite the disconnect between everything tomorrow

[weatherwiz]

By 0z tomorrow though looks like we are on the nose of a 110+ knot ULJ which may help to provide some UL support/forcing

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to appear that there will be quite the disconnect between everything tomorrow

Ryan's very excited on air about it 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan's very excited on air about it 

Looking at the 18z NAM wasn't really what I was hoping to see.  The steepest mid-level lapse rates associated with the EML-plume do 2 things;

1) The steepest plume stays to our south but the top edge (~7 C/KM lapse rates) does skirt CT but sort of early-ish during the afternoon.

2) The timing is too early...the plume moves off the coast by like 21z or so

Unlike Saturday we really don't have enhanced forcing from RFQ of both mid-level and upper-level jet.  This is something that I think is rather critical.  Our forcing also won't be provided by the cold front itself.  Maybe we can hope for a pre-frontal...might have saw some weak signals for one but we may have to hope for a s/w

We really need those steep lapse rates to stick around and for sfc temps to climb well into the 60's to maximize our instability.  Low-level shear will be through the roof so weak cape means shredded apart updrafts.  

Not throwing in the towel on anything happening but we need things to time better.  Anyways I think it would be extreme western MA/CT that has a shot for anything.  NE PA into NW NJ to SE NY could be better

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at the 18z NAM wasn't really what I was hoping to see.  The steepest mid-level lapse rates associated with the EML-plume do 2 things;

1) The steepest plume stays to our south but the top edge (~7 C/KM lapse rates) does skirt CT but sort of early-ish during the afternoon.

2) The timing is too early...the plume moves off the coast by like 21z or so

Unlike Saturday we really don't have enhanced forcing from RFQ of both mid-level and upper-level jet.  This is something that I think is rather critical.  Our forcing also won't be provided by the cold front itself.  Maybe we can hope for a pre-frontal...might have saw some weak signals for one but we may have to hope for a s/w

We really need those steep lapse rates to stick around and for sfc temps to climb well into the 60's to maximize our instability.  Low-level shear will be through the roof so weak cape means shredded apart updrafts.  

Not throwing in the towel on anything happening but we need things to time better.  Anyways I think it would be extreme western MA/CT that has a shot for anything.  NE PA into NW NJ to SE NY could be better

Won't be widespread, but there will be scattered severe all over SNE. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Won't be widespread, but there will be scattered severe all over SNE. 

definitely not widespread...if we had stronger forcing and kept steeper lapse rates in with ~1000 cape we could see a swath of wind damage.  This is a very tough call tomorrow.  If we get the lapse rates/cape and forcing watch out...we'll have a few nasty storms 

[Cyclone-68]

Will these storms be lightning producers or more of the low topped convective variety?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Will these storms be lightning producers or more of the low topped convective variety?

Low topped. That doesn't mean there won't be lightning, but I wouldn't be expecting anything prolific.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Low topped. That doesn't mean there won't be lightning, but I wouldn't be expecting anything prolific.

I want giant hail