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Feb 28th - March 1st Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
859 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 945 PM CST  
      
* AT 858 PM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
  OVER CHRISTOPHER, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!   
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

This supercell has tracked over 250 miles since it first formed well south of Joplin, MO. Incredible. 

Is that where it started? I thought it was near Springfield. I'll check the radar archive after all of this done, but regardless that is one long track!

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Just now, bdgwx said:

Is that where it started? I thought it was near Springfield. I'll check the radar archive after all of this done, but regardless that is one long track!

Sure is... It didn't become very well organized until east of SGF.

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Not to distract from the ongoing situation, but just wanted to mention that the fatality producing Ottawa tornado from earlier is historic for the LOT cwa.  First time there's been a tornado fatality during meteorological winter in LOT's area (there was a tornado in Bureau/LaSalle counties on Dec 6 1951 with one fatality occurring in Bureau county, just west of the LaSalle county line), which also means it's the earliest tornado fatality for a calendar year.  

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

looks like southern Chicago metro will got back into the warm sector...that line of storms along the warm front are shifting north while a "head" of the complex is east of MLI with a line of storms south from it

Just noticed that as well and reminded me of the meso update from LOT that was concerned about getting back into the warm sector after the first round of storms.  Getting my first t storm of the system here now.  In for a very long night I think.

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60/50 probs...

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 47
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   905 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwestern Arkansas
     Western Illinois
     Southeastern Kansas
     Southern and eastern Missouri
     Northeastern Oklahoma

   * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
     until 400 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
   cold front and move into a favorable parameter space for all severe
   hazards, including the risk for strong tornadoes.

ww0047_radar_big.gif

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Not sure if people have me on ignore. Hope not . There may be a long track tornado on the ground leaving St.Joe Indiana and moving into elkhart Indiana . It was confirmed on the ground in Mishawaka . A big town. The tornadoes to our west have been awful. This is a threat too.I'm not being snarky. I know some people don't take me seriously.

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3 minutes ago, knitwx said:

Not sure if people have me on ignore. Hope not . There may be a long track tornado on the ground leaving St.Joe Indiana and moving into elkhart Indiana . It was confirmed on the ground in Mishawaka . A big town. The tornadoes to our west have been awful. This is a threat too.I'm not being snarky. I know some people don't take me seriously.

The tor warning was for radar indicated rotation...have seen nothing confirmed as of yet myself

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7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Just noticed that as well and reminded me of the meso update from LOT that was concerned about getting back into the warm sector after the first round of storms.  Getting my first t storm of the system here now.  In for a very long night I think.






Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
923 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
922 PM CST

Storms are increasing in intensity from south of Dixon through
Quincy in western Illinois, which are located in a favorable area
of low-level moisture convergence ahead of the cold front. Radar
data from DVN indicates an MCV structure moving into Bureau County
with a potential wind and tornado threat trying to develop at its
leading edge. These storms and those developing to the southwest
will move into LaSalle County near 945 pm and are likely to
increase in forward propagation. The Lacon, IL observation has
turned back around to the southwest and gusting, with temperatures
rebounding back to 63 degrees, a sign the effective boundary is
shifting further north and overcoming some of the earlier cold
pool activity. A wind and QLCS tornado threat will exist with this
activity. To the immediate north of this path, toward I-88 and
likely into the heart of Chicago, a mainly elevated hail threat
will exist...though will need to watch if this MCV moves north of
east and could bring a surface based wind threat further north.

As noted in a recent SPC mesoscale discussion, a new tornado watch
will be need for along and south of the I-80 corridor. With some
uncertainties on whether the boundary will move a little northward
further east, will likely have a tornado watch encompass the I-88
corridor too.

MTF
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