Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion

[nrgjeff]

Unfortunately it looks hot again. I'm tired of it too but heat happens. Still lots of warmth in the global atmosphere. SSTs are warm everywhere too. Looks like the great Pacific Ocean heat sink of a several years is no longer. Attempt to go multi-decade cooler failed miserably, actually starting a few years back. Persistent above normal SSTs all over the Pac Basin is keeping the global amto warm.

[mempho]

Unfortunately it looks hot again. I'm tired of it too but heat happens. Still lots of warmth in the global atmosphere. SSTs are warm everywhere too. Looks like the great Pacific Ocean heat sink of a several years is no longer. Attempt to go multi-decade cooler failed miserably, actually starting a few years back. Persistent above normal SSTs all over the Pac Basin is keeping the global amto warm.

What is driving the Pacific basin warmth?

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[jaxjagman]

Another strong burst by the IDL is coming up,most of the Enso regions have been falling recently SOI  is at 10+ plus today.We are still in a more Nina pattern now.AAM is going into more  pattern for storms into the S/Plains around 10 days out,though this changes daily.Much as i thought this might break down in Asia,this afternoons run don't really show this.Could be a wild April.Most of the seasonal models look to fail bad with the ENSO into March.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Probably time sensitive...but the sun has gone expectedly very quiet.  I realize ocean currents (upwelling, etc) drive some the ENSO, but it will be interesting to see how the upcoming min influences it.

 

[Carvers Gap]

No major changes to the current pattern.  Some minor changes are that seasonal temps may make an appearance during week 2.  Jury is still out on duration and strength of that.  It does appear that a couple of cold fronts will move through during the next sixteen days, and it would seem some severe wx would be possible given the time of year and the warmth in front of those fronts.   Cancelled my Wxbell account for the season.  That is usually the last thing that I do once winter calls it quits.

[JayCee]

Spring is really making an appearance here with the recent warmth.  Redbuds are bursting with color, and the Dogwood flower buds are swelling to open soon.  Hickory trees have swelling green buds, and the oaks are also showing signs of swelling buds.  After the warm 70's this Sunday & Monday, Tennessee will be turning green.

Spring is a beautiful season--and beats the heat of mid-Summer around here.  Everyone enjoy. . .  

[jaxjagman]

CansSIPS just updated today looks close to a Modoki.This would be sweet next winter.

 

 

 

 

 

Certainly no toaster oven 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Some signals on both the Euro and GFS (and ensembles) that we will see a sharp cool down next weekend and potentially again after that. It is April 1.... 

[bigdog660]

Some signals on both the Euro and GFS (and ensembles) that we will see a sharp cool down next weekend and potentially again after that. It is April 1.... 

How cold does it show? Hoping not much below freezing. IIRC, correctly April 8 suppose to our last freeze, but I'm going to plant my cool weather veggies next week (hopefully).

Also hoping for a cool and wet spring and summer.

Last spring, I didnt even plant a garden as I kind of read the tea leaves that summer was going to be dry. I'm not going to pay KUB to water my garden every 3 or 4 days (plus pay for waste water even though its going in to the ground). Those of you with wells are lucky! Those with septic tanks are even luckier!

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[jaxjagman]

On 4/1/2017 at 5:08 PM, bigdog660 said:

How cold does it show? Hoping not much below freezing. IIRC, correctly April 8 suppose to our last freeze, but I'm going to plant my cool weather veggies next week (hopefully).

Also hoping for a cool and wet spring and summer.

Last spring, I didnt even plant a garden as I kind of read the tea leaves that summer was going to be dry. I'm not going to pay KUB to water my garden every 3 or 4 days (plus pay for waste water even though its going in to the ground). Those of you with wells are lucky! Those with septic tanks are even luckier!

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Proly cold enough for higher elevation snow,least that's what it looks like.40'S looks like possible right nowin the lowers.Mother Nature forgot this was spring,still in a Nina like pattern

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, bigdog660 said:

How cold does it show? Hoping not much below freezing. IIRC, correctly April 8 suppose to our last freeze, but I'm going to plant my cool weather veggies next week (hopefully).

Also hoping for a cool and wet spring and summer.

Last spring, I didnt even plant a garden as I kind of read the tea leaves that summer was going to be dry. I'm not going to pay KUB to water my garden every 3 or 4 days (plus pay for waste water even though its going in to the ground). Those of you with wells are lucky! Those with septic tanks are even luckier!

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Looks nasty for this time of year.  Hope it is wrong.  I would say a freeze is still on the table for NE TN.  Knoxville is borderline.  Looks like potential for 2-3 shots of cold over the next 16 days.  

[John1122]

I never count on the last freeze here until May 1st or so, last frost May 8th-10th. It isn't always that late but frosty early May mornings are not uncommon at all here.

[bigdog660]

I never count on the last freeze here until May 1st or so, last frost May 8th-10th. It isn't always that late but frosty early May mornings are not uncommon at all here.

Oh heck! Where did I get April from? I guess I was thinking Michigan was June, Cincinnati was May, and we were April.

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[jaxjagman]

The MJO is starting to show signs life coming  soon.The bad news it would be back into South America once again

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1091886&playlistId=1.3350699&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1&binPageNum=1&hootPostID=ea367c471a05913fd0a9fcc0bff207e4

[Coach B]

20 hours ago, John1122 said:

I never count on the last freeze here until May 1st or so, last frost May 8th-10th. It isn't always that late but frosty early May mornings are not uncommon at all here.

You really need to know your microclimate when it comes to last freeze/frost data. I'm 50 miles or so south of Nashville and have had more than one frost into May in just the last 15 years. Don't think we have been to freezing in May since I've been here, but I know its happened in the past. 

[Daniel Boone]

Latest hard freeze in my recollection here was may 21 2002. 27 degrees. Also, have recorded mid 30's and patchy frost early June 1976.

Historical records show a major snowstorm hit the area May 20, 1894. 6-10 inches reported.

[JayCee]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Latest hard freeze in my recollection here was may 21 2002. 27 degrees. Also, have recorded mid 30's and patchy frost early June 1976.

Historical records show a major snowstorm hit the area May 20, 1894. 6-10 inches reported.

That is quite believable to me, actually.  My Mom's family is from Holmes Mill, KY--right on the Virginia-Kentucky border in the mountains.  My grandmother always told me one of the heaviest Spring snows her mother talked about happened in late May.  At first I found it hard to believe.  May?   That's unheard of in our generation. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Latest hard freeze in my recollection here was may 21 2002. 27 degrees. Also, have recorded mid 30's and patchy frost early June 1976.

Historical records show a major snowstorm hit the area May 20, 1894. 6-10 inches reported.

32 on June 3rd here at one point. 9 inches of snow above 2000 feet in the early 1920s in May. My grandfather said corn was knee high when it happened. He was in his late teens. It was the event that made him love weather. There was even a couple of inches down to 1200 feet or so in that event. 

[John1122]

Not remotely unheard of for early April but interesting forecast for my area.

 

Quote

Thursday Night

A chance of rain before 2am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

A chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

GFS spits this out for early Friday.

[1234snow]

Not remotely unheard of for early April but interesting forecast for my area.

 

Thursday Night A chance of rain before 2am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

GFS spits this out for early Friday.





0z NAM is a little juicier for the mountains and SWVA. Might be a nice little event above 2,500 feet.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, John1122 said:

32 on June 3rd here at one point. 9 inches of snow above 2000 feet in the early 1920s in May. My grandfather said corn was knee high when it happened. He was in his late teens. It was the event that made him love weather. There was even a couple of inches down to 1200 feet or so in that event. 

Glad you mentioned that John. My Dad told me of older folks telling him the exact same thing and that the snow bent the corn over but it melted and the corn made it ok. He didn't say what year. I just figured it was the 1894 one of which I found recorded online. Good stuff John ! Btw, I was thinking June 3 was the date of that late frost here in 1976. You verified that. I lost my records from back then and have to go on memory, unfortunately.

[JayCee]

Looks quite interesting in the high elevations of the Smokies by Thursday.  Snow with winds in the 30-40 mph range.  All this after a round of possible severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Typical April weather in East Tennessee. 

[nrgjeff]

Nice when snow protects the corn from colder air temps. Reminds me of winter wheat back in Kansas, lol! 

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

32 on June 3rd here at one point. 9 inches of snow above 2000 feet in the early 1920s in May. My grandfather said corn was knee high when it happened. He was in his late teens. It was the event that made him love weather. There was even a couple of inches down to 1200 feet or so in that event. 

 

8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Glad you mentioned that John. My Dad told me of older folks telling him the exact same thing and that the snow bent the corn over but it melted and the corn made it ok. He didn't say what year. I just figured it was the 1894 one of which I found recorded online. Good stuff John ! Btw, I was thinking June 3 was the date of that late frost here in 1976. You verified that. I lost my records from back then and have to go on memory, unfortunately.

 

[JayCee]

Per MRX:

Quote

The latest model data shows good snow potential on Thursday into
Thursday night across the higher elevations. Both the NAM and GFS
show moisture extending up to -15 deg C with the freezing level
starting out around 5500 feet at 09Z Thursday. Freezing level drops
through the day and the sounding profiles remain moist. Stout NW
flow will also enhance snow across the higher elevations due to
orographic lift. By 18z Thursday the snow/rain line should be down
around 3500 feet and by 00z down around 3K feet. During the day we
do see CAPE values high enough to suggest possible snow banding in
the high terrain. Any area that gets under one of these bands could
pick up quick accumulations; which could lead to isolated higher
totals. The better moisture will begin to gradually taper off after
00z but the upslope snow machine should still be pretty healthy as
strong NW flow continues into the night. Expecting snow showers
across the higher elevations to last well into the night on Thursday
with some isolated areas of snow showers still across the higher
peaks into Friday morning/early afternoon. Lows overnight will be in
the lower to upper 30s. Some valley locations across Northeast TN
and SWVA could see a few hours of light snow early Friday morning
but will quickly switch back over to rain shortly after sunrise. Not
expecting any accumulation or travel issues across lower elevations.
All precip finally pulls out later Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday
will be quite chilly with upper 40s near 50 north to mid to upper
50s south.

Current thinking is that areas above 4000 feet will see between 3 to
6 inches of snowfall from early Thursday morning through Friday
morning. Areas between 3000 to 4000 feet will see 2 to 4 inches and
2500 feet to 3000 feet 1 to 3 inches. Due to the snowfall still
being several periods out will send out an SPS to highlight for now.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, JayCee said:

Per MRX:

 

This pretty much has it all.  Special Wx Statememt from MRX issued at 3:52 just to tag on to what you posted, Jaycee...

...An Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Exists for east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia and southwest North Carolina for Wednesday
Afternoon and Evening...

...Wintry Conditions with Significant Snowfall Expected across the
higher elevations of southwest Virginia and far east Tennessee for
Thursday and Thursday Night...

A strong upper level storm system will across the Tennessee
Valley and southern Appalachians for Wednesday and Thursday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the morning,
and then redevelop during the afternoon and evening hours.

The thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening could be
severe with the main risk being damaging winds and large hail up
to Golfball size. There is also a risk of tornadoes, especially
across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina.

A strong cold front will move across area Wednesday night with
colder air spilling into the southern Appalachians. The cold air
will allow the rain showers to change to snow across the higher
elevations Thursday morning. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
are possible at elevations at or above 4000 feet, and 1 to 4
inches between 2500 and 4000 feet, by Thursday evening. Heavier
amounts possible across the highest elevations.

Besides the snow, windy and colder conditions are expected area-
wide. The windy and snowy conditions will produce blowing and
drifting of the snow across the higher terrain.

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates.

[JayCee]

Starting to get concerned about tomorrow's severe weather potential.  It is April after all.  Everyone stay safe. . . .

[John1122]

Forecast for LeConte, basically blizzard conditions Thursday-Friday.

Thursday

Snow. High near 32. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Windy, with a northwest wind 35 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.

[jaxjagman]

NMME'S just coming out show a chance of a good warm up upcoming for May and a rather dry looking pattern with warmer SST'S into enso 1+2.NASA shows a more Nina pattern hanging on,only model showing this so i'd consider this as an outlier right now.Looking ahead towards next fall and winter into Nov a couple seasonal's are now hinting at a Super Nino by Nov.The good news is most of the warming is looking to be into 3 and 3.4 and not into 1+2,maybe a more Modoki look right now

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS really liking a western ridge.  Been showing this for several runs.  The Euro is almost the exact opposite.  GEM ensembles split the difference.  Euro is more of the same.  GFS is a pattern change.  Right now, I don't trust either model.  Weeklies from Monday are very dry for the next 46 days which supports Jax's comments above.  

[Ranger]

Carvers or Jax, are you seeing a relapse of the drought conditions for the remaining Spring into the Summer season?  I know parts of the TN Valley are still technically in drought even here in NW Ga, but we've had significant rainfall since late November.  A lot of the creeks and rivers are flowing nicely and the local ponds are back to full pool.  I would like to know if the past 4-5 months was just a pause and we're going back to much dryer conditions or are we going to continue to see a wetter pattern?