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Carvers Gap

Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion

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Have at it.  After a very warm winter, especially January and February, Spring has arrived early to the forum area.  Oddly, my peach tree is holding tight and refusing to bloom.  Here is the 6z GEFS which seems pretty representative of most LR ensembles.  The Weeklies do depict March 7-14 for a return to "cooler than normal" for a brief time before going full bore into Spring w AN temps. The 0z EPS barely supports yesterday's Weeklies. To be sure the Weeklies have not been predictable in the LR when showing cold.  Time for March Madness, baseball, severe weather(we have a severe thread), planting gardens(have a thread for that as well), rain, and retreating cold(did it ever get here?).

IMG_0462.PNG

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March and April look warmer than normal and wetter than normal. If severe weather becomes active it may be early and often. From a public perspective, hopefully it would end early. TNI years sometimes get going in March across the South, gradually migrating toward the Plains in April. Such a scenario would promote a quieter May in Dixie.

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Interesting look on the ensembles this AM, speaking of the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS...the upcoming trough in the West is now shown to be kicking eastward sooner than modeled during the past few days.  The western trough should be in place from roughly Feb 28 to Mar 7.  As w the winter months any cold in the East will be fleeting...but cold ejecting eastward during spring should always be watched, especially for the mountains.  Also, I should warn that March BN temps prob won't produce snow for most.  Temps would need to be much below normal.  Eyeballing the timeframe around Mar 7th for a brief return to some seasonably cool wx. 

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This is the general look on the two aforementioned models....again, this is not for details but LR pattern recognition.  It may revert back, but it may also be a correction...

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting look on the ensembles this AM, speaking of the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS...the upcoming trough in the West is now shown to be kicking eastward sooner than modeled during the past few days.  The western trough should be in place from roughly Feb 28 to Mar 7.  As w the winter months any cold in the East will be fleeting...but cold ejecting eastward during spring should always be watched, especially for the mountains.  Also, I should warn that March BN temps prob won't produce snow for most.  Temps would need to be much below normal.  Eyeballing the timeframe around Mar 7th for a return for a brief return to some seasonably cool wx. 

Here is to hoping we stay warm.  I am thru with what winter there was.  Plus I do not want to even see a chance of a freeze.  Nature seems ready for spring & so am I.  Just hope winter does not mess with spring & severe season.  

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38 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Here is to hoping we stay warm.  I am thru with what winter there was.  Plus I do not want to even see a chance of a freeze.  Nature seems ready for spring & so am I.  Just hope winter does not mess with spring & severe season.  

I am w Jeff.  I think spring will be seasonal or warm on average.  Though, I don' t think we have seen our last hard freeze.  I think this weekend it is going to go into the upper 20s at TRI. Granted, that is still technically winter.  But I think we see more after that...even in a warm pattern.   Also. It depends a bit on location in the valley and elevation as to when winter is totally offf the table.  I will be surprised if TRI has seen its last flakes.  I have seen snow showers, even during warm springs, here in NE TN.  As for a pattern that is winter-like that lasts for more than 5-6 days, IMO we are past that point.. My earlier posts this AM are regarding a short time frame, not the entire spring.  To me seasonal forecasting is iffy at best...sometimes we get surprises even during the age of AI.

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19 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

March and April look warmer than normal and wetter than normal. If severe weather becomes active it may be early and often. From a public perspective, hopefully it would end early. TNI years sometimes get going in March across the South, gradually migrating toward the Plains in April. Such a scenario would promote a quieter May in Dixie.

I'll gladly take the wetter than normal after last year's heat and drought related wild fires here.  Also, TYS is already 2 inches below normal for 2017, so we need to play catch up at this point.  Drought still lingers over east TN and bordering states, so a wet Spring is a good thing. 

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2 hours ago, JayCee said:

I'll gladly take the wetter than normal after last year's heat and drought related wild fires here.  Also, TYS is already 2 inches below normal for 2017, so we need to play catch up at this point.  Drought still lingers over east TN and bordering states, so a wet Spring is a good thing. 

No doubt.  A day like today, light rain and cloudy, seemed like a distant mirage last fall.  Indeed, we need to take what we can get.  

The 12z GFS, CMC and GEFS continue to advertise a back-and-forth pattern to begin March. Again, not talking about the long term pattern.  That pattern, though seasonable, will seem cold after our highs in the mid-upper 70s across forum locations.   I am not calling for snow, though 12z GFS has a winter like look(erroneous all year w that look at this range), but am just looking for wood stove weather.  That means cold enough to run the stove.  Coach B, definitely have not used it as much this winter.  I guess one more year of seasoning won't hurt my stacks.  Still need to see the EPS on board or I am not buying even seasonal as AN is the rule right now.

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

No doubt.  A day like today, light rain and cloudy, seemed like a distant mirage last fall.  Indeed, we need to take what we can get.  

The 12z GFS, CMC and GEFS continue to advertise a back-and-forth pattern to begin March.  That pattern, though seasonable, will seem cold after our highs in the mid-upper 70s across forum locations.   I am not calling for snow, though 12z GFS has a winter like look(erroneous all year w that look at this range), but am just looking for wood stove weather.  That means cold enough to run the stove.  Coach B, definitely have not used it as much this winter.  I guess one more year of seasoning won't hurt my stacks.

I'll welcome seasonable weather, as well.  We'll have plenty of 70's come April.  Let's keep our tree buds tucked away for a few more weeks!

The farm fields around here are greener than they were most of last summer.  The heat and dryness last year cooked most grasses to a dull brown.  Grass is certainly a cool weather lover.  It does better here in winter than summer.

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Do I think the 12z GFS verifies past d10?  No. So, why post it?  Fair question.  Just illustrates my concern w/ a potential bout of short-lived cold during a stretch of AN temps.  Things can flip back-and-forth quickly during spring.  And the 12z GFS is pretty cold after 180.  However, it is just one of several options.  The GEFS does support a more modified version of this look.  I will also add that this is just analyzing a model run w speculation and is in no way a forecast.

gfs_T2ma_us_6.png

 

gfs_T2ma_us_45.png

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That means cold enough to run the stove.  Coach B, definitely have not used it as much this winter.  I guess one more year of seasoning won't hurt my stacks.  Still need to see the EPS on board or I am not buying even seasonal as AN is the rule right now.

Haven't the Euro weeklies been advertising a cool down during about the same period that the GFS tossed out today?  We'll see what happens. While we have been absolutely roasting so far, climo says everything is still on the table for at least three or four more weeks. 

As far as the stove, Ive burned less wood this year than anytime since I started burning full time 15 years ago. You know its really warm for Jan and February when you can't at least light a small fire in the evening to knock the chill off without running everyone out of the stove room. 

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14 hours ago, Coach B said:

Haven't the Euro weeklies been advertising a cool down during about the same period that the GFS tossed out today?  We'll see what happens. While we have been absolutely roasting so far, climo says everything is still on the table for at least three or four more weeks. 

As far as the stove, Ive burned less wood this year than anytime since I started burning full time 15 years ago. You know its really warm for Jan and February when you can't at least light a small fire in the evening to knock the chill off without running everyone out of the stove room. 

Roasting for sure and record highs still possible.  Indeed, the Weeklies portrayed a cool down on the Monday night run for wk3 which is about where the 12z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have the seasonal to cool temps...and is about as far as those models reach in terms of time.  There was not a ton of model support at the time of Monday's Weeklies because it was outside of the time range of most major models.  Now that we are a couple of days closer, wk 3 on those Weeklies is now coming into view, but obviously not in focus yet.  While I don't think (famous last words) that we go to an extended cold pattern, the cold anomalies on some runs have been impressive.   (The Weeklies are definitely spring-like after wk3 w AN temps). But, seems this winter that I have seen cold on the models only to have them completely lose the cold solution or mute its effects.  So, I am gun shy.  Still, a wet pattern w some cold thrown in....I am at least mildly interested if at least I can load the stove a few more times.  I will drive to the mountains to see snow if I have to...only about 50 minutes to Roan Mountain from here.  

My electric bill should be lower than normal for Feb...unit barely runs during the day right now.

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Nothing really new to add.  Cool/seasonal temps are still on the LR maps. EPS has it from d10-15.  Weeklies support that from last night w cool/easonal temps depicted for d11-21.  The Weeklies also show a deep eastern trough during the last week of March...take w a huge grain of salt.  Generally a warm pattern w bouts of cold.  Spring, basically.   Now the 6z GEFS is colder IMO during that time frame.  

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I might add that the GFS/GEFS is pretty cold past d10....like damaging freeze type stuff.  That normally is not an issue this time of the year, but as Matt70 mentioned, there are plenty of plants and trees in bloom or almost there.  Now, the American models have overdone the cold all winter...so let's see if they are in error again.   Not tracking anything daily right now as we are about 10 days out...sound familiar.

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24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I might add that the GFS/GEFS is pretty cold past d10....like damaging freeze type stuff.  That normally is not an issue this time of the year, but as Matt70 mentioned, there are plenty of plants and trees in bloom or almost there.  Now, the American models have overdone the cold all winter...so let's see if they are in error again.   Not tracking anything daily right now as we are about 10 days out...sound familiar.

Yea that would not be good around here. Not sure if the 26 or 27 will slow things down any. If we get lows in the mid to low 20's in two weeks that would be right up there perhaps worse than 2007

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57 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea that would not be good around here. Not sure if the 26 or 27 will slow things down any. If we get lows in the mid to low 20's in two weeks that would be right up there perhaps worse than 2007

Right.  The GFS has been showing some mid-teens in this area...model is prob overly cold as no other models shows that.   The EPS has some -10F anomalies from last nights 0z around d12-14.  Again, I think we are warm as a general rule.  However, spring can sometimes deliver cold when winter cannot due to changing wavelengths.... it would only take 2-3 days of significant cold to do some damage.  I have even been through warm winters where it snowed on my new lettuce in my garden.  It is Tennessee, and the weather can change on a dime.   I think it unlikely we see any more significant snow, but I would certainly not rule it out.  At 3,000' it is probably abnormal not to see some snow in March.  It would only take one GOM storm timed w cold to make things interesting.  I see no evidence of that right now, but the weather lately has humbled many on the hobby side.

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26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right.  The GFS has been showing some mid-teens in this area...model is prob overly cold as no other models shows that.   The EPS has some -10F anomalies from last nights 0z around d12-14.  Again, I think we are warm as a general rule.  However, spring can sometimes deliver cold when winter cannot due to changing wavelengths.... it would only take 2-3 days of significant cold to do some damage.  I have even been through warm winters where it snowed on my new lettuce in my garden.  It is Tennessee, and the weather can change on a dime.   I think it unlikely we see any more significant snow, but I would certainly not rule it out.  At 3,000' it is probably abnormal not to see some snow in March.  It would only take one GOM storm timed w cold to make things interesting.  I see no evidence of that right now, but the weather lately has humbled many on the hobby side.

That is true. At this point, I am more worried about readings south of 30 for consecutive nights like some modeling has been showing. You are right though, timed just right, someone could get a heavy, wet, gloppy snow, which imo does more damage but like you said no evidence of that at this time.

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Dont mean to step on anyone posting here but i'm not sure i agree with the cold.Teleconnections are not that impressive +epo and a retrograding sort of  speaking ridge from the BS going west.This wouldnt be any -AO,NOW you have a system going into Korea with heights pumping into Mongolia into China and with a ridge to the NE of Japan,looks severe to me with a couple days below normal temps into wk 2 of March

 

ecmwf_z500a_wpac_6.png

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Volatility in the SOI  rising also should suggest rising heights into the plains during the 2nd week of March also

 

17 Feb 2017 1003.17 1009.25 -51.97 -2.33 1.47
18 Feb 2017 1005.90 1009.55 -40.30 -2.56 1.01
19 Feb 2017 1008.76 1008.05 -19.36 -2.59 0.77

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For sure, as noted, warm has been modeled as the norm for the next three months...I see no reason at this point to move from that idea.  It does appear there is going to be some cold mixed into at least the early part of the pattern.  How significant is the question?  I think the models are still working out how this evolves.  This morning (really during the past couple of days) the time frame has been moved up.  Where we had been talking d+10, this morning's models now have the cold from day 6-10.  However, this winter models have tempered (in intensity and shortened in duration) cold shots from weeks to days to even hours.  This will be a good test of modeling...Are we still seeing the "Lucy pulling the football" where the underlying warm pattern still trumps everything including teleconnections, MJO, etc.?  If there is any red flag in this, it is seeing the East and AK cold at the same time.  Yesterday's NCEP teleconnections showed a slightly negative NAO, negative AO, and rising PNA.  Still too early to be talking specifics. The ESRL site has the EPO as positive and WPO as negative. The change I see this AM is the cold being moved-up.  There is a pretty good, albeit semi-temporary, high latitude blocking signature. It is not a perfect block. Having been burned this winter repeatedly, I think we need to see it inside of five days for it to be seriously considered as legit.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_7.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

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No big changes to my comments from Sat morning at this point.  Still some cold showing up for early March.  Yesterday afternoon's runs tempered the cold which was not unexpected as was mentioned in bold print.  I jinxed it w my morning comments.  Ha!  The 12z GFS has now returned to the colder solution.   

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6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

No big changes to my comments from Sat morning at this point.  Still some cold showing up for early March.  Yesterday afternoon's runs tempered the cold which was not unexpected as was mentioned in bold print.  I jinxed it w my morning comments.  Ha!  The 12z GFS has now returned to the colder solution.   

Transient cold by the looks,teleconnections support this,where we suffer would seem to be by the lack of any snow pack up north4indices.png \

System going  through Asia looks like it could go into the East China Sea,this would be a suppressed system maybe,this would be our chance of winter weather.

 

gfs_z500a_wpac_13.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Transient cold by the looks,teleconnections support this,where we suffer would seem to be by the lack of any snow pack up north4indices.png \

System going  through Asia looks like it could go into the East China Sea,this would be a suppressed system maybe,this would be our chance of winter weather.

 

gfs_z500a_wpac_13.png

 

 

Yep.  Really just tracking cold, no winter weather at this point.  Agree, outside of drawing a wild card...not much showing in terms of winter wx.   Maybe we get some mountain snow, but much more concerned about several hard freezes.  The American models appear to be up to their old tricks in depicting near wall-to-wall BN after d7.  The EPS has cold, but modified.  Looks to me like a lot of back-and-forth AN/BN to begin March.  Unlikely that the AM models verify, but the 12z and 18z GFS were very cold...

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Nothing much to add even after a few days break from posting in our wx discussion thread.  As we discussed, early March will begin w some cold embedded within a warm pattern...prob won't be the last.  Cold night on tap tonight.  On an interesting note, the storms here were barely that.  Made it through those with no problem.  Woke up last night to beeping from the backup battery for my computer.  House was pitch black.  The wind from the front overnight knocked out my power around 4:00AM.  The AEP guys had it buzzing again by 9:30AM.  I had just shifted perishable dairy products in to heavily iced coolers when power was restored.  

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Getting some impressive Northwest Flow snowfall. Nothing significant but it is nice to see my home town covered in white a few more times before Spring takes hold. Any more snow as far as I'm concerned is a bonus. Current Conditions: Sitting steadily 31F, mostly cloudy with snow showers accompanied by a constant breeze.

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Blunder, had a few light snow flurries here this AM.  Wind is howling.  We probably need a spring obs thread.  Would somebody be willing to create it?  

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12 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Picked up a half to three quarter inch of snow here early this morning that melted fast.Harlan, ky reported 2 inches !.

Indeed!  Way to go!

You all catch the last two runs of the Euro?  I had not been paying attention and a friend gave me a heads-up.  D8-10 is pretty cold.  This morning's run had a NE blizzard.  

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