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Chicago's Epic Snow Drought


Hoosier

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, it's been over 5 weeks since the last 0.5" or greater snowfall at ORD.

Yeah Hoosier...pretty sad. :weep:

Whenever anyone posts stats about ORD, it reinforces how horrendous our winter climo is. The fact that *any* January has had 1.5" of snow or less is ridiculous...but there have actually been 10 such Januaries. 

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54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

lol

FileL.png

In case anyone is wondering, 48 days without a 1" snowfall is not even close to the record.  It's not very easy/efficient to search, but I found a 61 day streak from December 2-January 31 in 1955-56 (just looking in DJF).  I'm not exactly sure what the record streak is for the winter months.

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On Friday, February 03, 2017 at 0:59 PM, Hoosier said:

In case anyone is wondering, 48 days without a 1" snowfall is not even close to the record.  It's not very easy/efficient to search, but I found a 61 day streak from December 2-January 31 in 1955-56 (just looking in DJF).  I'm not exactly sure what the record streak is for the winter months.

Did some additional searching and I'm confident that the 61 day streak without a 1" snowfall in 1955-56 is the longest one that is entirely contained in meteorological winter of DJF. Process was a bit complicated as there were several years with missing daily snowfall data but I was able to rule them out by looking at daily temps/precip, as that WAS available for those years.

Today is day 50 without a 1" snowfall in Chicago.  Day 62 would be on Feb 17... can it be done or will there be a spoiler?  Stay tuned.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did some additional searching and I'm confident that the 61 day streak without a 1" snowfall in 1955-56 is the longest one that is entirely contained in meteorological winter of DJF. Process was a bit complicated as there were several years with missing daily snowfall data but I was able to rule them out by looking at daily temps/precip, as that WAS available for those years.

Today is day 50 without a 1" snowfall in Chicago.  Day 62 would be on Feb 17... can it be done or will there be a spoiler?  Stay tuned.

Always kind of hate to root for anything futility related, but we're getting close enough now that it would be nice to get there.  At least that way there would be something to show for the 8+ weeks of benign weather in the middle of met winter.  

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51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Always kind of hate to root for anything futility related, but we're getting close enough now that it would be nice to get there.  At least that way there would be something to show for the 8+ weeks of benign weather in the middle of met winter.  

Welp, forget the numbers in my previous post. :lol:  I had done a series of searches with overlapping dates in an attempt to avoid having to go through every individual year back into the 1880s, but that shortcut cost me in terms of accuracy.  Now I found a 66 day streak without a 1" snow from December 25, 1921 to February 28, 1922... and that streak actually went another 30 days until March 31, but again, not counting days outside of meteorological winter for purposes of these posts.

So,  I *think* 66 days is the record for DJF. In that case, day 67 would not be until February 22.

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Welp, forget the numbers in my previous post. :lol:  I had done a series of searches with overlapping dates in an attempt to avoid having to go through every individual year back into the 1880s, but that shortcut cost me in terms of accuracy.  Now I found a 66 day streak without a 1" snow from December 25, 1921 to February 28, 1922... and that streak actually went another 30 days until March 31, but again, not counting days outside of meteorological winter for purposes of these posts.

So,  I *think* 66 days is the record for DJF. In that case, day 67 would not be until February 22.

Wow, so that '21 to '22 streak would be hard to top if you include March in with it.  Even though March isn't a met winter month, the streak is impressive considering it started way back in Dec.  As bad as this season has been, it would be truly remarkable to see the <1" streak continue through March.  I would say it's extremely unlikely that could happen, but the way things have been going you never know, lol.

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, so that '21 to '22 streak would be hard to top if you include March in with it.  Even though March isn't a met winter month, the streak is impressive considering it started way back in Dec.  As bad as this season has been, it would be truly remarkable to see the <1" streak continue through March.  I would say it's extremely unlikely that could happen, but the way things have been going you never know, lol.

Fwiw, the entire seasonal snowfall in 1921-22 was a paltry 11.5", but the year before was even worse with 9.8".  The worst back to back winters in Chicago.  

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12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, so that '21 to '22 streak would be hard to top if you include March in with it.  Even though March isn't a met winter month, the streak is impressive considering it started way back in Dec.  As bad as this season has been, it would be truly remarkable to see the <1" streak continue through March.  I would say it's extremely unlikely that could happen, but the way things have been going you never know, lol.

It's definitely possible. This pattern is very 2012 like with a dissipating weak La Niña transitioning to a neautral Enso state.

 

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, the entire seasonal snowfall in 1921-22 was a paltry 11.5", but the year before was even worse with 9.8".  The worst back to back winters in Chicago.  

Wow, those were some lean seasons to be sure.

 

7 minutes ago, Chambana said:

It's definitely possible. This pattern is very 2012 like with a dissipating weak La Niña transitioning to a neautral Enso state.

 

If it means another March '12 count me in lol.

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The Chicago stuff is mind boggling crazy. I mean a lot of people are seeing a snow drought  (STL 1.2 on the season) but chicago having 0.6 since Dec 18? That's insane. And what's more, thanks to getting over 17" before mid December, this winter will not be a futility one when looking at the final season numbers, but the astronomical winter snow drought there is historic. My brother said the last time he saw snow cover the ground was when he left here early on Dec 26 to head back to Chicago.

 

Snowless or warm winters seem to increase the likelihood of a big March or April snowstorm tenfold. Watch out Chicagoland! I warned you!

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Welp, forget the numbers in my previous post. :lol:  I had done a series of searches with overlapping dates in an attempt to avoid having to go through every individual year back into the 1880s, but that shortcut cost me in terms of accuracy.  Now I found a 66 day streak without a 1" snow from December 25, 1921 to February 28, 1922... and that streak actually went another 30 days until March 31, but again, not counting days outside of meteorological winter for purposes of these posts.

So,  I *think* 66 days is the record for DJF. In that case, day 67 would not be until February 22.

They will do it, I'm calling it now.

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More perspective on how bad it has gotten around Chicago.

Here is snowfall for the period from December 19 through February 5.  Just 0.6" has fallen during that time.  Even last winter managed 9.3" during that time.  As much as 54.9" has fallen between those dates.  

chart.png

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On Sunday, February 05, 2017 at 1:39 PM, Hoosier said:

Welp, forget the numbers in my previous post. :lol:  I had done a series of searches with overlapping dates in an attempt to avoid having to go through every individual year back into the 1880s, but that shortcut cost me in terms of accuracy.  Now I found a 66 day streak without a 1" snow from December 25, 1921 to February 28, 1922... and that streak actually went another 30 days until March 31, but again, not counting days outside of meteorological winter for purposes of these posts.

So,  I *think* 66 days is the record for DJF. In that case, day 67 would not be until February 22.

I think this is going to happen... a new futility streak for DJF. It is within 10 days now and there is good model agreement on little/no measurable snow for Chicago for the next 10 days, and crucially, a good chunk of the next 10 days is going to be eaten up by unseasonable warmth, so it's not like there are prospects for a surprise pop up disturbance in a cold pattern.  The only slim possibility of things getting messed up would be if that big storm showing up beyond day 10 speeds up by a couple days AND takes a favorable track, but it's asking a lot for both conditions to be met, so I'm not expecting it.

Just some additional info... besides the 1921-22 streak, there have been a couple 64 day streaks of sub 1" snowfall in Chicago history... in 1905-06 and 1953-54. The latter actually ended up finishing with above average snow, which is an unbelievable feat when you think about how much time was lost.

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2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I don't know which is worse - the current snow futility in Chicago...or the fact that there have been several similar snowless streaks in Chicago in the past. 

There are no words. 

It is pretty unbelievable to think that Chicago has had several streaks over 60 days in DJF.  We are talking about a place that is comfortably north of 40N, and while the moderating Lake Michigan is next door, it's not like being next to the Atlantic Ocean or something.  To not even get a clipper to drop 1" of snow is mind boggling.

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Hey beavis, thought you would like to know that Chicago came awfully close to having an 83 day sub 1" streak in 1898-99.  The only thing that interrupted was a 1" snow, on the nose, on January 17, 1899.  Had that not occurred, it would've run from December 1, 1898 through February 21, 1899.

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, thought you would like to know that Chicago came awfully close to having an 83 day sub 1" streak in 1898-99.  The only thing that interrupted was a 1" snow, on the nose, on January 17, 1899.  Had that not occurred, it would've run from December 1, 1898 through February 21, 1899.

Crazy - nice work on digging up all of this info. I've been reading a book on Wisconsin weather and climate- published in the early 2000s I think. The winter weather section describes some harsh winters in the 1830s through 1850s...feels like another world entirely. 

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3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Crazy - nice work on digging up all of this info. I've been reading a book on Wisconsin weather and climate- published in the early 2000s I think. The winter weather section describes some harsh winters in the 1830s through 1850s...feels like another world entirely. 

Here's another one...

Since December 19, Chicago has recorded just 0.6" snow (all in January).  Assuming they make it through February 16 with 0.3" or less of additional snow, it will be the first time on record that there has been a 60 day stretch in DJF with a sum total of less than 1". Even those winters with the really long sub 1" streaks that we have been talking about managed to put together enough dustings to add up. 

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I have no words for Chicago's snow drought. I didn't think such a thing was possible. And they had two 6+ snows BEFORE Dec 12. Are they trying to be Denver? I'll have to dive into to stats but I can't imagine detroit has ever seen anything like it, especially with the Lakes. Theres no question this was a front loaded winter so far, but even DTW, at similar latitude, has seen 14" of their 30.7" fall after Dec 17. 

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