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buckeyefan1

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

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Well, everything still looks pretty boring for the foreseeable future.  GEFS still gives us a -NAO/-AO period for a few days in the long range then the greenland ridging starts significantly weakening at the end of the run.  Still doesn't look bad at such a long lead but was hoping that -NAO would hold on stronger....maybe it builds back up, I don't know. I think we'll need that for a good chance come February.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

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I don't see anything in the next 2 weeks that is worth getting excited about (or barely even worth watching for that matter).  The "super clipper" is just not the look we want to generate anything more than high clouds or token drizzle or a wet snowflake or two.  First, it enters the US in the Dakotas.  That's just too far east, especially in a progressive flow regime.  Second, it is too stretched out.  The Euro strengthens it as it dives SE, but not enough.  Third, at this lead, it is barely diving far enough south to put us even in the game for snow.  We need it going through southern SC at this point.  It'll likely end up tracking through NC.  Fourth, even if it does take a better track, the precip will probably start to fall (assuming there is any at all) during max heating.

Beyond that, I don't see what is worth watching around the 6th or 7th of Feb.  If you believe the GFS (either the 0z or 6z), you have virtually zero features in place or even all that close to being in place for a winter storm.  No good high pressure.  No antecedent cold air mass.  A cold front, which would deliver the cold air, working across the mountains during or after the precip.  The 0z GFS doesn't even get all that cold after the storm.  The 6z at least gets cold, but it's not until after the system.

0z GFS:

f300.gif

6z GFS:

f300 (1).gif

 

Beyond that, none of the ensembles that I can see are showing a wintry pattern.  The MJO is forecast to head into phases 1-2 and then either back into the COD (or even into phase 4-5 (more models are starting to show this possibility -- yuck)).  The AO is forecast to eventually dive, but so is the PNA (yuck), and the NAO is forecast to be positive (yuck).  Hopefully, everything is wrong and a winter pattern will start to emerge.

Sorry folks.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't see anything in the next 2 weeks that is worth getting excited about (or barely even worth watching for that matter).  The "super clipper" is just not the look we want to generate anything more than high clouds or token drizzle or a wet snowflake or two.  First, it enters the US in the Dakotas.  That's just too far east, especially in a progressive flow regime.  Second, it is too stretched out.  The Euro strengthens it as it dives SE, but not enough.  Third, at this lead, it is barely diving far enough south to put us even in the game for snow.  We need it going through southern SC at this point.  It'll likely end up tracking through NC.  Fourth, even if it does take a better track, the precip will probably start to fall (assuming there is any at all) during max heating.

Beyond that, I don't see what is worth watching around the 6th or 7th of Feb.  If you believe the GFS (either the 0z or 6z), you have virtually zero features in place or even all that close to being in place for a winter storm.  No good high pressure.  No antecedent cold air mass.  A cold front, which would deliver the cold air, working across the mountains during or after the precip.  The 0z GFS doesn't even get all that cold after the storm.  The 6z at least gets cold, but it's not until after the system.

0z GFS:

f300.gif

6z GFS:

f300 (1).gif

 

Beyond that, none of the ensembles that I can see are showing a wintry pattern.  The MJO is forecast to head into phases 1-2 and then either back into the COD (or even into phase 4-5 (more models are starting to show this possibility -- yuck)).  The AO is forecast to eventually dive, but so is the PNA (yuck), and the NAO is forecast to be positive (yuck).  Hopefully, everything is wrong and a winter pattern will start to emerge.

Sorry folks.

But, but, February is gonna be awesome after Valentine's Day , I have it on pretty good authority! :)

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Nothing like a day 10-15 anomaly map! The models can't get tomorrow right! 

Only time models have been wrong is when they showed more then 2 days of BN temps.  Bask in the warmth...

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17 minutes ago, packbacker said:

EPS still says cold focused more west with SER problems for us.  Makes sense, been theme all winter. 

IMG_4022.PNG

Yea but Franklin says the eps sucks and ya'll claim Gefs rules now. So who's your money on?

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea but Franklin says the eps sucks and ya'll claim Gefs rules now. So who's your money on?

Always the warmest model.   

GEPS looks GEFS like though.  

 

IMG_4023.PNG

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Here's the GEFS for the same period as Pack's EPS map above (I think...although there is a possibility I ran it wrong).  Anyway, it looks similar.  850s are slightly warmer in the SE in the EPS and somewhat cooler SW on the EPS (which looks like is due primarily to a storm entering the west coast around San Francisco).  Either way, neither model shows a wintry pattern, and the general theme of much colder anomalies over the northern tier is similar:

gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_10.png

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JB is on the strat warm train calling for the cold.  If GEFS is right, it'll be cool, not sure it's cold enough for us, but probably for his guys up north. 

Reading HM on twitter, I've been trying to extrapolate and interpret his language and dialect.  Very interesting.  Then I got a headache and stopped.  It SEEMED like he was saying the strat effect was moving down into the troposphere.  I could be completely wrong on that.  Anybody translate?  

I'm really reaching here for some blocking.  Strat warm, SOI crash, left side COD MJO, something! Give us some blocking in February!! 

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EPS mean precip.   The preferred storm track looks like apps runners.   Should be a good snow pattern for TN/KY/OH to MA/NE.  Maybe we get some more severe weather to track, that's always fun.  

IMG_4024.PNG

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The GEFS shows some interesting things.  Just not a winter weather pattern for the SE.  You have a nice big block over AK.  That's awesome.  It supports cross-polar flow, as indicated by the green arrow.  That means, Canada is likely to be cold.  Yay.  It also shows, because of lack of blocking in the NAO domain, no mechanism to press the PV far enough south to give us appreciable cold weather.  It looks normal here, except over Phil's house, where it looks slightly warm.  You also have a fast Pac flow, indicated by the tightly packed height lines (see red oval).  The result should be near normal temps with occasional light rain/clouds.

IMG_4023.thumb.PNG.751d7b73a04c75018e81730abf489fec.PNG

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17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea but Franklin says the eps sucks and ya'll claim Gefs rules now. So who's your money on?

I feel the euro is not as good as it once was. It wentry downhill in 2011 after their so called upgrade. In 2011 it missed badly on two storms and in our area of the northern hemisphere has been an average model.

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As expected, CFSv2 back to seeing cold on the east. Good sign considering previous runs. We'll see if she holds 

IMG_6121.GIF

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1 minute ago, Southern Track said:

Was looking at the same thing.  The 6z and 0z were nearly identical.  Guess the new data is positive?

Yeah...I don't know.  It ends up amounting to nothing but it's the only show in town.

gfs_z500aNorm_us_16.png

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

I feel the euro is not as good as it once was. It wentry downhill in 2011 after their so called upgrade. In 2011 it missed badly on two storms and in our area of the northern hemisphere has been an average model.

still has the highest 500mb verification score 

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35 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What's got into the GFS...nice SW that wasn't there in previous runs.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

Ridge axis is all wrong, won't allow anything to dig and it should remain flat and dry. Shame. 

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GFS is back to furnace mode, it did lead the way with the AK ridge on roids but Euro has led the way of not spitting out fantasy cold patterns.   

Curious to see if this winter has a chance at being one of the warmest winters....a year after one of the warmest winters.  Well...definitely pre-emergent before Valentines this winter.

gfs_T2ma_us_41.png

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This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember.  Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track.  Warm, warm, warm, warm.  Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations.  I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age.

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