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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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The first forecast I heard this morning was from Roger Hill at his ~6:15 A.M. update on WDEV, and he suggested advisory-level snows (3-5” with the possibility of a Winter Weather Advisory) tomorrow for areas north of the Barre-Montpelier area.  He expected things to taper off on Saturday as the front pushed south, and then snow and mixed precipitation would return on Sunday as the front moved back to the north.  Checking on the BTV NWS forecast discussion, they’re thinking 1-3” of snow tomorrow with sleet mixing in.  Their discussion is from the wee hours this morning, so I’m not sure if Roger infused any more recent data into his forecast, but either way it sounds like our next round of snow is a possibility tomorrow.

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GYX bearish for tomorrow's little event, with nobody outside of the mts getting even 1".  (Farmington was top non-mountain spot, with 10% chance of 1".)   GFS remains quite moist for Mon-Wed, also quite marginal for temps/thicknesses.  Signif snow not out of the question.  Neither is a bunch of 33-35 RA.

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3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The first forecast I heard this morning was from Roger Hill at his ~6:15 A.M. update on WDEV, and he suggested advisory-level snows (3-5” with the possibility of a Winter Weather Advisory) tomorrow for areas north of the Barre-Montpelier area.  He expected things to taper off on Saturday as the front pushed south, and then snow and mixed precipitation would return on Sunday as the front moved back to the north.  Checking on the BTV NWS forecast discussion, they’re thinking 1-3” of snow tomorrow with sleet mixing in.  Their discussion is from the wee hours this morning, so I’m not sure if Roger infused any more recent data into his forecast, but either way it sounds like our next round of snow is a possibility tomorrow.

I was less bullish on tomorrow, but the recent WRF data does suggest 3-5"+ are possible above 2000ft.  

Fri 03/24 16Z 0.21 2131  97  94  -3 0.03
Fri 03/24 17Z 0.26 2235  98  94  -2 0.11
Fri 03/24 18Z 0.30 2233  98  96  -1 0.14
Fri 03/24 19Z 0.30 2232  98  97  -1 0.10
Fri 03/24 20Z 0.39 2330  98  98  -1 0.05
Fri 03/24 21Z 0.49 2430  98  97  -1 0.04
Fri 03/24 22Z 0.58 2530  98  93  -1 0.03
Fri 03/24 23Z 0.64 2630  98  92  -1 0.04
Sat 03/25 00Z 0.72 2729  98  91  -1 0.05
Sat 03/25 01Z 0.79 2829  98  86  -1 0.05
Sat 03/25 02Z 0.74 2828  98  84  -1 0.05
Sat 03/25 03Z 0.69 2928  98  82  -1 0.04
Sat 03/25 04Z 0.65 2927  98  80  -1 0.03
Sat 03/25 05Z 0.59 2926  97  75  -1 0.02
Sat 03/25 06Z 0.52 2925  95  69  -1 0.02
Sat 03/25 07Z 0.47 3023  92  64  -1 0.01
Sat 03/25 08Z 0.42 3021  91  62  -2 0.01

 

I'm doubtful that we're going to get much below 2000ft west of the spine.  Certainly not happening south of 89 as the warm front looks to get at least to 89. 

Also possible that this comes as all sleet. 

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing nicely at Stowe...got pretty steady pretty quickly.

 

Heading westward I hit snow around 8:15 AM in Richmond, and the intensity just continued to increase as I headed west.  Here in Burlington there’s heavy snowfall with visibility ¼ mile or less.

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It nuked here for a bit but is now mixing with some pingers/snow pellets. I am not a fan of front enders

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

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The roads are terrible here right now. It is always these little events that end up worse because they don't send anyone out. 

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50 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The roads are terrible here right now. It is always these little events that end up worse because they don't send anyone out. 

And when the forecast is for a small event, drivers don't seem to slow down as much as when there's a WSW.

Echoes ove the home front, nothing seen here in Augusta though the clouds have tha "homogenous" look suggesting flakes are in the air.

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And when the forecast is for a small event, drivers don't seem to slow down as much as when there's a WSW.



That is true.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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52 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The roads are terrible here right now. It is always these little events that end up worse because they don't send anyone out. 

No kidding. 

Were slowly shifting from good dendrites to some form of ball/pellet/rod snow. 

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No kidding. 

Were slowly shifting from good dendrites to some form of ball/pellet/rod snow. 



Yeah i would agree with that.


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Done with snow. On to the wind portion of the day. Winds are gusty right now and making some good sounds in the wires and eaves. 

All in all fairly gross out in the CPV

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Done with snow. On to the wind portion of the day. Winds are gusty right now and making some good sounds in the wires and eaves. 

All in all fairly gross out in the CPV



some bright echoes indicate pingers are not far off.

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