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Dec 11-12 Storm Threat


UlsterCountySnowZ
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15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Don't underestimate this cold coming, gonna have to watch these events closely, models have been hinting for a while now that the 10-17 time frame is something to watch

Next week does look downright frigid.  Lows in the teens look like a possibility.

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z euro is going to cut this event west of the area. Really amped up out west

Yep it sure did cut. Huge snowstorm for the Midwest. There is CAD through our area all the way down into the Mid-Atlantic though. If that verifies it's a freezing rain/ice storm for us and a living hell of a rush hour Monday morning  

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep it sure did cut. Huge snowstorm for the Midwest. There is CAD through our area all the way down into the Mid-Atlantic though. If that verifies it's freezing rain/ice storm for us and a living hell of a rush hour Monday morning  

Yeah the high was in a good position for low level cold.

 

Euro artic hounds coming down mid week...absolutely brutal air for december 

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11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Eh most models are flat. Probably the euro over amped solutions at work 

Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut

Shows a snowstorm for me

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut

Sure that makes sense. Can you show me the block on the gfs that allows this to not cut? Highlighting the differences in the models is why we're here.

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Sure that makes sense. Can you show me the block on the gfs that allows this to not cut? Highlighting the differences in the models is why we're here.

After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves

That may be true, but thats not what i asked. Can you show maps of the euro vs the gfs and explain why the euro is more likely to be correct?

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