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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

The GFS is pretty ugly. Low goes up into Michigan.

If you want wall to wall snow from any event, or even event to event this pattern probably isn't going to do it for you very often. Front end thumps to mix / ice  / rain will probably be more likely. Also, more so than in other patterns any medium - long lead (4 days plus) threat is likely to change dramatically one run to the next in terms of sensible weather. I wouldn't focus much on anything past the Sunday event to see how it plays out before getting worried about Monday and down the line. Only thing that seems certain is there will be storms and re-enforcing shots of cold air over the next 14 days, p-type TBD. I'd still take this after last December.

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1 hour ago, Ryd10 said:

CMC looks like 6-8 also. Still a lot of time but the verdict looks like we see some type of accumulating snow. 

Yep, plenty of opportunities for accumulation over the next 10 days and beyond.  Looks to be several front end thumps with change over type of events. Hopefully we end of with more snow than rain but we know how well we do with WAA storms...

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Think I'm going to ride the GFS this year until it gives me reason not to.  If I'm remembering correctly, the only time it didn't lead the way last season was the big storm where it struggled - as most of the models did - with placement of the low and precip shield.  The NAM ended up catching on the soonest, though it was overdone on the total amounts.

Anything over an inch this time of year seems like a win and an exception to the rule anymore.  Of course that's mostly my local climo speaking.

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Looking at the GFS until Christmas Eve, we have the potential for 7 storms. Hopefully we can pull out a big one or a few decent ones and over performers like the one that hit Chicago area last week.

1. Sun 12/11  2. Mon 12/12  3. Wed 12/14  4. Sat/Sun 12/17-18   5. Mon/Tue 12/19-20   6. Fri 12/23   7.  Sat 12/24

 

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2 hours ago, Ryd10 said:

EURO rains on our parade. too much warm air cuts snow accumulation a lot. I have a feel it's gonna be another one of those storms where the changeover happens fast and we stare at the rain snow line hoping it dives back south.

It's better than last run, and the vast majority falls before the temp rises more than a degree or two above freezing (850s are a bit colder than surface). Of course you are right that we are flirting with a pretty meh event, especially given the GFS. Although I've lived in Northern Virginia most of my life, so my standards aren't quite so high as far as avoiding sloppy events.

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

It's better than last run, and the vast majority falls before the temp rises more than a degree or two above freezing (850s are a bit colder than surface). Of course you are right that we are flirting with a pretty meh event, especially given the GFS. Although I've lived in Northern Virginia most of my life, so my standards aren't quite so high as far as avoiding sloppy events.

Just looked at the Euro ensemble mean and control and wow does it look good. 

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GFS has a nice quick hitter for Wednesday.  Looks like all snow for you boys up there in Allegheny County.  A little too close for comfort down here. Still plenty of time to go, obviously.  I think it is lining up with what the aforementioned Euro had at 12z that Ryd10 referenced.

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30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FWIW the NAM is a bit south of last run, so perhaps the trend will reverse some with the rest of the 12z models. I think we can pull out 1-3", which wouldn't be such a bad first storm.

On the NAM all the cold air is basically gone by the time precip starts, 6z GFS would at least be some front end snow to rain. Our best bet is probably to hope for a good front end then dryslot after it warms up. I don't know how likely we are to see a weaker low tracking much further SE to put us back into a mostly snow situation.

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

FWIW the NAM is a bit south of last run, so perhaps the trend will reverse some with the rest of the 12z models. I think we can pull out 1-3", which wouldn't be such a bad first storm.

The GFS looks to be similar. A general 1-3 Sunday turning over to rain overnight into Monday.

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