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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Picking up on the social media discussion...The guys on WGR 550 (sports radio in BUF) were actually talking about differences between American and European weather models this morning.  It was all tongue in cheek ("we don't need any stinking European models...), but goes to show how far out in front of the weekend snow "event" the media has been, even getting into modeling details.  Never thought i would hear a discussion of GFS and European models on the WGR morning show...

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The long range looks terrible for lake effect IMO. The Polar vortex is on the other side of the globe and looks to continue to strengthen throughout the winter which would make consistent arctic air almost impossible to come by. If we don't cash in on the -AO and - NAO from December into Mid January we're going to have a terrible winter I think. Could be one of the worst lake effect seasons in awhile. The Pacific dominated flow is just stubborn and hasn't moved at all in forever. Remember 11-12 season with that stubborn polar vortex and 40" of snow for the year? We need that thing to move, Canada is just a constant blowtorch with 10-15+ above normal temps. This pattern has looked like this for the last year.

Or is it just that the polar vortex is super weak right now, but all the cold has built up in Eurasia?  Either way, this picture tells the story pretty well.  That's a massive wall of cold over a huge area.

 

world_day1.jpg

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Or is it just that the polar vortex is super weak right now, but all the cold has built up in Eurasia?  Either way, this picture tells the story pretty well.  That's a massive wall of cold over a huge area.

 

world_day1.jpg

A weak polar vortex is a great thing for cold to be delivered. 2013-2014 saw a very weak polar vortex that allowed it to consistent hit us with arctic over for nearly the entire winter. A strong polar vortex keeps all the cold air locked up in the arctic circle. Most long term models are predicting the polar vortex to strengthen throughout Late January into March. Which means we better cash in on snow from now until Mid January, especially lake effect which we need arctic air for. 

Record cold air and snowcover continue across Siberia and Asia. There is just no mechanism to bring the cold air into Canada and the Great Lakes. We need the Pacific to cooperate or this winter is as good as tossed. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Picking up on the social media discussion...The guys on WGR 550 (sports radio in BUF) were actually talking about differences between American and European weather models this morning.  It was all tongue in cheek ("we don't need any stinking European models...), but goes to show how far out in front of the weekend snow "event" the media has been, even getting into modeling details.  Never thought i would hear a discussion of GFS and European models on the WGR morning show...

The European model is getting another big upgrade in the next week I believe. It's already has the best model accuracy and will be even further ahead of the pack as soon as next week. We will basically just be watching the Euro going forward unless the other models catch up. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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We may have our first chase Devin. 

Expect the worst conditions to be on Sunday and Sunday night when
there will be plenty of synoptic moisture in place with the upper
low nearby and cold enough temperatures aloft to support lake
effect snow. This will be a northwest flow event, so instead of a
singular band there will be multiple bands, with upsloping likely
to be a key mesoscale factor. 925mb winds will increase to around
40 kts, so lake enhanced snows are likely to extend well inland
from the lakes, especially across higher terrain. This also will
result in gusty winds on land, especially south and east of the
lakes where winds will be strongest. Some drifting snow is even
possible late Sunday when temperatures should be below freezing
in most areas.

It appears that the greatest snow amounts will be across higher
terrain in the Western Southern Tier. Not only is this suggested
by model guidance, but climatologically speaking the position of
upper and surface low is favorable for this location. Storm
totals may be well over a foot in some favorable upslope areas,
though amounts will vary widely due to mesoscale influences.
While forecast confidence is just short of watch issuance, this
area deserves the closest consideration. A northwest flow is a
tricky forecast south of Lake Ontario, especially since eastern
portions of the cwa will be last to cool enough to support snow.
Amounts may reach warning criteria along the I-90 corridor, but
this probably will depend on how quickly the storm exits on
Monday. The GFS has been slower than GGEM/ECMWF guidance, with
significant additional accumulation from lake effect snows
possible if the slower solutions verify. Regardless of headlines,
nearly all of Western and North Central New York should get some
accumulating snow from this system.
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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Posted

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
552 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016

NYZ019-020-085-180700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0008.161119T2300Z-161121T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
552 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
BANDS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
THE UPPER 20S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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Yea, not a bad forecast imby

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 
Snow. Low around 31. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday
Snow showers. High near 35. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Gfs was much improved as well
 

IMG_0028.PNG

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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Well the snow tires are on and I must say I'm pretty excited about this storm.  I can't say I've seen many NW wind events this early in the season with fairly significant cold air in play.  I'm really not sure how Ontario will respond.  The high winds and short fetch will certainly limit things, however the very warm lake might make up for that.  Wrap around moisture will obviously be key and some of the runs really hold that 850mb low in a nice position for the South shore for a solid 24-30 hours. That said, I am also still skeptical of how much synoptic moisture this thing can really bring.  

I'm guessing we at least see area wide Winter Weather advisories for Sat night through Monday with possible wind advisories for the counties bordering Ontario.  There is also the possibility for lake effect snow advisories on the South shore through Monday and I also wouldnt be surprised to see some localized higher amounts in the higher elevations of the fingerlakes.  The 'Dacs will likely be under winter storm watches by Tomorrow PM.   

Anyway, pretty interesting storm, especially because the first storm of the season is always a little more fun.  So much potential for a decent hit or major heartbreaker......  

Buffalo - 3.1"
Rochester - 4.5"
Syracuse - 7.8"
Jamestown - 10" (This was supposed to say 10"!)

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well the snow tires are on and I must say I'm pretty excited about this storm.  I can't say I've seen many NW wind events this early in the season with fairly significant cold air in play.  I'm really not sure how Ontario will respond.  The high winds and short fetch will certainly limit things, however the very warm lake might make up for that.  Wrap around moisture will obviously be key and some of the runs really hold that 850mb low in a nice position for the South shore for a solid 24-30 hours. That said, I am also still skeptical of how much synoptic moisture this thing can really bring.  

I'm guessing we at least see area wide Winter Weather advisories for Sat night through Monday with possible wind advisories for the counties bordering Ontario.  There is also the possibility for lake effect snow advisories on the South shore through Monday and I also wouldnt be surprised to see some localized higher amounts in the higher elevations of the fingerlakes.  The 'Dacs will likely be under winter storm watches by Tomorrow PM.   

Anyway, pretty interesting storm, especially because the first storm of the season is always a little more fun.  So much potential for a decent hit or major heartbreaker......  

Buffalo - 3.1"
Rochester - 4.5"
Syracuse - 7.8"
Jamestown - 1

Some pretty nice totals there. I think Perrysburg wins with over 10" from this. I might be going to Ellicottville for a late dinner Sunday night if it looks good down there.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Posted
30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only 2 places to see this East of the Rockies. Off Erie and Ontario. Tug has one like that every 5-10 years on average.

 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just send the signal and I'll be there :D 

Aren't you forgetting Tolland CT also? ;)

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