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NWNC2015

Matthew

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...the models have been pretty good inside 48 so think today's 12 runs will have a good idea. 

How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run?

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19 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...the models have been pretty good inside 48 so think today's 12 runs will have a good idea. 

So here is the current plot for the 06Z GFS run we just had at 0 hr

gfs_z500_vort_us_1.png

 

Here is the 12Z from Mon which is the worst GFS run for NC there was with the track up over eastern NC....pretty good match for the current plot....what changes between now and Sat is the high over TX builds in and shoves the trough north allowing more zonal flow...the 12Z Mon run keeps the trough strong and deep...its gonna miss but I wont believe it till its actually headed east, even a 50-75 miles delay in that east turn can have big impacts on SE NC and the beaches up to Cape Lookout especially.

gfs_z500_vort_us_12.png

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17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run?

Hay CR, not sure about the euro but as I posted before the 6z GFS (compared to 0z) did increase the precip values northward towards our area. A couple of days back RAH discussed the possibilities of precip building to the northwest of the storm as it became extratropical. Since it may not become extratropical now (pushed to the SE) I'm wondering if there will still be a higher precip shield to the NW as it get shunted easterwards. The same dynamics should still be at work (at least initially as it first shifts eastwards), so who knows.... 

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Don't want or need the rain, hunting season starts next week and I need cool an dry or the mosquitos will be unbearable......my personal feelings are if the track is wrong its wrong to the bad meaning the storm would be closer not farther away....

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40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run?

Not as high...2-4" across triangle.  Euro didn't track as far north this run.  GEFS has been steadily bumping up totals too....who knows.

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_fh120_trend.gif

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My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends.  They are two blocks from the coast.  Can't talk him into going inland some.  I just don't get it.  Says they are going to ride it out.  I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach.  I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess z

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My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends.  They are two blocks from the coast.  Can't talk him into going inland some.  I just don't get it.  Says they are going to ride it out.  I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach.  I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess z



Would telling him there is chance for it to strengthen to a high end Cat 4 or low end 5 persuade him? The potential for catastrophic damage along the FL coast is very real, hopefully he stays safe and doesn't need to be rescued.

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8 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


Would telling him there is chance for it to strengthen to a high end Cat 4 or low end 5 persuade him? The potential for catastrophic damage along the FL coast is very real, hopefully he stays safe and doesn't need to be rescued.

 

He's a hard headed guy.  I hate to say it but I don't think there is anything that will change their minds.  Four of them down there in the same place.   They just don't fully understand the danger of what's possibly coming. 

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28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends.  They are two blocks from the coast.  Can't talk him into going inland some.  I just don't get it.  Says they are going to ride it out.  I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach.  I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess z

My friends just moved to a block from the water in Stuart, FL and were going to ride it out. I found this photo montage from Hurricane Jeanne and it convinced them to move inland. Maybe it's worth a try? http://www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/weather/hurricanes/2014/09/03/photos-looking-back-hurricane-jeanne-10-years-later/15018577/

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It's looking more and more like it's going to be too difficult a task for Matthew to climb north enough to heavily impact NC with appreciable wind.  Even the heaviest rains look to be confined to SE and coastal sections.  Not saying inland areas won't get some rain, but outside of the 6z GFS and UK, the trends haven't been favorable.

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53 minutes ago, wendy said:

My friends just moved to a block from the water in Stuart, FL and were going to ride it out. I found this photo montage from Hurricane Jeanne and it convinced them to move inland. Maybe it's worth a try? http://www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/weather/hurricanes/2014/09/03/photos-looking-back-hurricane-jeanne-10-years-later/15018577/

My wife was able to convince them that staying was putting their lives in danger.  They are going to Tampa this afternoon. 

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12z NAM coming in and it's ~75 miles north of its 6z location at hr 21.

Edit: But at hr 30 its now ~75 miles to the SE of its 6z location

Correction: I was off one frame. At hr 33 it looks to be just a little north of 6z. Just north of Jacksonville. This run would have the center stay just off shore at that location moving northward.   

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Although the center of Hurricane Matthew is currently forecast to remain offshore of the North Carolina coast, we still expect significant impacts to southeastern NC. Heavy rain/flooding, strong winds, storm surge, and beach erosion remain the primary threats. It is important to continue to monitor this storm as confidence in the track remains low, and any slight westward shift would bring significant impacts farther inland and farther north across NC.

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I know it's the NAM but it seems to have initialize spot on location wise and when you look at water vapor loop outflow pointed in the direction the NAM takes it....  this could still very well stay offshore, not to minimize impacts at all

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I hardly ever look at the 12km NAM but the 4km NAM did well tracking Hermine inside 36 hours.  Looks rough for coastal GA into SAV through 36-42. 

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I hardly ever look at the 12km NAM but the 4km NAM did well tracking Hermine inside 36 hours.  Looks rough for coastal GA into SAV through 36-42. 

Great point and the 4km NAM would be razor thin close to a landfall, darn near worst case scenario....  also some hefty rainfall totals through central NC

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Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line.  At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out.  Hopefully GFS ticks south.  

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line.  At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out.  Hopefully GFS ticks south.  

Yeah, that seems to be the latest trend...keeping it more south and then looping it.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line.  At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out.  Hopefully GFS ticks south.  

Any "trend" north may have ceased, looks like the 12z tropical model guidance held or even ticked south, looks like a tighter loop maybe off the Ga/Sc coast...  

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line.  At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out.  Hopefully GFS ticks south.  

The 4km NAM does some weird bouncing around towards the end of the run so I'm not sure how much stock I would put into its output at this point given that wacky last few frames. 

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9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The 4km NAM does some weird bouncing around towards the end of the run so I'm not sure how much stock I would put into its output at this point given that wacky last few frames. 

Agree...not bad through 36 then after that I wouldn't pay much attention.  

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12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, that seems to be the latest trend...keeping it more south and then looping it.

We tend to dodge these extreme weather events, sucks during winter but would be good on this one. 

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Up to 140 mph on the 11am advisory.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

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