2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

[jaxjagman]

Latest CanSIPS is hinting at that pesky "H" that won't seem to go away around the Eastern parts of the Valley through the winter months.It's also predicting the return of Nino in the summer time.

[Carvers Gap]

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Latest CanSIPS is hinting at that pesky "H" that won't seem to go away around the Eastern parts of the Valley through the winter months.It's also predicting the return of Nino in the summer time.

Favors a trough right in the middle of the US.  That is one of the reasons I think Nashville west has a very good chance at winter weather.  It is also why I think the eastern Valley "may" continue to deal w/ dry weather.  Again, seasonal forecasting is a crap shoot in my eyes.  My comments are based on where computer models and analogs are trying to place the trough.  I know Mr. Bob is a big fan of analogs(j\k).  What is encouraging based on those same ideas is that the cold source will be just in the northern Plains.  So any relaxation in the pattern might not require a long trek by colder air and snow pack would be on our doorstep speaking on a global scale.  I have seen many maps that looked similar to that set-up that provided some great winter storms to Memphis and eventually the entire Valley.  Might provide for some interesting temp profiles from east to west.   Glad to finally be in range where we can at least have some discussion about winter!

[rbowman]

Without the enso driver signal to help forecast the upcoming winter we aren't seeing the same volume of posts with predictions as in years past. Its easy to look at a weak or moderate Nino and think cooler and wetter, but with more neutral conditions it isn't as easy. I think the warm pdo will be our biggest driver this winter, and hopefully we can get a negative nao to play along as well. Lord knows we are overdue for that negative nao for a winter season.

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[jaxjagman]

Weeklies are showing the 850's getting into the I-40 range the 1st week of Nov.I'm hoping the next weeklies will push this up into trick or treat night

[Carvers Gap]

On 10/9/2016 at 0:09 PM, Roger Smith said:

I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.

The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result. 

A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter overall. 

So for predictions I will go Dec -1, Jan -3 and Feb n/n 

and about 125% of normal snowfall trending to 150% in southern VA and inland NC. 

Also encouraging, my research into energy peaks suggests a stronger modulation than most recent winters, meaning that very deep low pressure centers are likely to form at opportune times, and the storm tracks favored include one (not a dominant one) that begins around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and runs northeast past Cape Hatteras to New England. When that one cashes in on an energy peak there should be at least one blizzard for the region.

I do want to add that the pattern will be variable enough to include some record warmth and this may show up in late February and early March, so unlike some recent winters, this one probably won't be back-loaded. The best winter synoptics are likely to be in the second half of January. 

 

Great post by Roger Smith as always from the KA Winter Outlook in the MA forum.  Even though we are not in the mid-Atlantic...for those of us in NE TN, many of our GOM storms often have an axis of snowfall from Knoxville to DC.

[jaxjagman]

Weeklies backed off any substantial cool spell.Looks more or less zonal around the Valley wk 3-4.Dont think it's that horrible though right now.almost looks seasonal.Waiting to see what trick or treat night brings,generally we can see about anything,this wouldnt bother me walking with the kiddos if it's warm here.It really sucks though walking around in the cold and rain,kids dont care,i get grumpy

[nrgjeff]

Mild could go into November. Still think Dec/Jan offer the best chance of cold and stormy. Might get mild again Feb. Still yields a near normal winter - been a while between recent blowtorches and polar pigs. North Pac is still quite warm. Cooling trends would probably take until late winter or early spring. Severe weather anyone?

[Carvers Gap]

Ray's Wx has their forecast out.  Even though it is for the high country of western North Carolina, still a good read.  I can't say I disagree w/ much of the seasonal forecast even if it were written for west of the Apps.  Temps might be a bit cooler being nearer the possible mid-continent trough. My concern, as far as snow goes, is that it will be a dry winter.  I mentioned that in a late summer or early fall post.  If it was cold right now for example...no snow because of the dry pattern. The first sentence of the summary reads...

"Snow lovers will hope we are wrong;  however, most signals at this point indicate a drier than average winter with less than average snowfall and temperatures near average."

Ray's 16-17 Winter Forecast

 

 

[jaxjagman]

On 10/14/2016 at 1:06 PM, nrgjeff said:

Mild could go into November. Still think Dec/Jan offer the best chance of cold and stormy. Might get mild again Feb. Still yields a near normal winter - been a while between recent blowtorches and polar pigs. North Pac is still quite warm. Cooling trends would probably take until late winter or early spring. Severe weather anyone?

Best chance of t-storms we've seen in quite some time,even rain Thursday and both the Euro and GFS both agree at this time.

[jaxjagman]

IMME is showing parts of the SE drier but yet is cooler,i'd think for it to be cooler it would be more wetter ?

[Daniel Boone]

15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

IMME is showing parts of the SE drier but yet is cooler,i'd think for it to be cooler it would be more wetter ?

I don't think I've seen a more goofier outlook. Lol. It just doesn't make sense within itself. With the looks of apparent high latt. Blocking with well above temps up there, but yet, above norm. Temps over all the lower 48 as well. Wow! Global warmanistas hacked that model. Lol. 

[nrgjeff]

Above shows a dry Northwest Flow. At least it is a very sunny model run! Can't stand endless overcast (without snow) in winter. So in the sunshine dept I like that model. However I really think the first half of winter will be colder than shown. If we can rebuild a SER back half of winter, tee up spring severe!

[Carvers Gap]

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

[nrgjeff]

Oh my here comes the Siberian snow, cold as Vladimir Putin! Actually the index is worthless without considering air pressure as well. If higher than normal pressure and above normal snow over Siberia, I like a cold signal. If both below normal, get the blowtorch ready. Opposite signs and I do not use the tool at all. We'll see how trends go into November.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Oh my here comes the Siberian snow, cold as Vladimir Putin! Actually the index is worthless without considering air pressure as well. If higher than normal pressure and above normal snow over Siberia, I like a cold signal. If both below normal, get the blowtorch ready. Opposite signs and I do not use the tool at all. We'll see how trends go into November.

I didn't even bother to post pics after last winter's debacle with that idea.  Figured a link was about what it deserved.  Ha!  FWIW, I am much more of an ENSO/Oceans/climate trends person when it comes to seasonal stuff.  Maybe throw in a bit of solar.   The summer forecast coupled with the ENSO state seemed to work pretty well.  

[nrgjeff]

I agree with all above. Siberian snow, without pressure, is good comic relief though. I think 3-4 years ago they also had another major debacle, with moderate fails between the major melt downs - pun intended. Cheers!

[jaxjagman]

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2016-2017-us-winter-outlook

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2016-2017-us-winter-outlook

I don't take stock in any of their winter outlooks. Their track record is bad. Going back to 2000, I don't think they got any of the colder than average winters right. Correct me if I'm wrong. Just to name a few; 02-03 they went mild. 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. They went predominantly mild.

     It is obvious CPC is warm biased. It is a shocker they actually put what bn they did on the map.lol.

[Carvers Gap]

The most recent Euro weeklies are depicting a pretty sharp turn towards a colder pattern about mid-November.  Some nice departures showing up for that time frame.

[jaxjagman]

Wouldn't be bad,more of an east based Nina

[Carvers Gap]

Found this in the SE forum that found it in the MA forum...either way, nice read.

 

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Found this in the SE forum that found it in the MA forum...either way, nice read.

 

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

Lol yeah I found this up in the NE forum.  It is a good read. I'm still very pessimistic currently. 

[John1122]

I'm cautiously optimistic about winter prospects this year. I know some of the southern areas drew a bad card last winter, but for north of 40 it worked out pretty well. Even with the extreme warmth and lack of blistering cold we'd had the prior two winters. I guess we could be due for a dud of a winter but the 2009-2016 time frame has had 2 duds and 5 winners for my area. Much better than the 2000-2008 timeframe when there were 2 winners and 5 duds. One thing is for certain, it tends to be feast, with 5-15 inches above normal snowfall, or famine, with 25 percent or less of normal snowfall. 

While we have had a major winter storm, we've not been able to keep it clean in a long while. You'd think that another wide spread 12-18 inch type storm is bound to hit at some point. 

[whamby]

I'm at the point where I don't think it will ever rain again in CHA. Scary..

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Lol yeah I found this up in the NE forum.  It is a good read. I'm still very pessimistic currently. 

I think we will do OK.  If this had been a strong Nina, I would have thrown in the towel.  But a weak Nina or nada...? I think the dry weather could limit snow totals this winter.  Northern hemisphere is still pretty warm, or I would be all in.  But I will take a normal winter with normal temps.  I suspect that we flip from this summer like pattern to winter.  Easily could be wrong.  But hey, you ought to be good in western North Carolina.  That is money most years.  As you know, seasonal forecasting is basically forecasting chaos.  Like I said earlier, I like ENSO/current climate trends/seasonal climo/some seasonal modeling.  Most of those point towards a normal winter that could have been colder minus the Pacific as Jeff points out...that and latent Nino heat.  I would lump western NC into that statement as well.  

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, whamby said:

I'm at the point where I don't think it will ever rain again in CHA. Scary..

Yep. We need a wet winter and spring.  Seems like most seasonal modeling tries to keep us somewhat dry, but not severely dry.  Man, it is like living in a wet season/dry season climate right now.

[Carvers Gap]

44 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm cautiously optimistic about winter prospects this year. I know some of the southern areas drew a bad card last winter, but for north of 40 it worked out pretty well. Even with the extreme warmth and lack of blistering cold we'd had the prior two winters. I guess we could be due for a dud of a winter but the 2009-2016 time frame has had 2 duds and 5 winners for my area. Much better than the 2000-2008 timeframe when there were 2 winners and 5 duds. One thing is for certain, it tends to be feast, with 5-15 inches above normal snowfall, or famine, with 25 percent or less of normal snowfall. 

While we have had a major winter storm, we've not been able to keep it clean in a long while. You'd think that another wide spread 12-18 inch type storm is bound to hit at some point. 

I agree.  Long over due.  Seems like we are missing those winters where the GOM is wide open.  This might not be that winter, but it only takes one.  If we get a weak SER, things could get interesting.  I really like the Plateau and western areas of the forum this winter.  But I will be surprised if all areas don't see some decent cold with chances for winter.  This might be one of those winters where we get nickel and dimed to death on our way to average.

[BNAwx]

If you're still a follower of the SAI, it's looking pretty good this year.  Not sure how much confidence I have in it anymore but I'll take anything that looks positive at this point.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we will do OK.  If this had been a strong Nina, I would have thrown in the towel.  But a weak Nina or nada...? I think the dry weather could limit snow totals this winter.  Northern hemisphere is still pretty warm, or I would be all in.  But I will take a normal winter with normal temps.  I suspect that we flip from this summer like pattern to winter.  Easily could be wrong.  But hey, you ought to be good in western North Carolina.  That is money most years.  As you know, seasonal forecasting is basically forecasting chaos.  Like I said earlier, I like ENSO/current climate trends/seasonal climo/some seasonal modeling.  Most of those point towards a normal winter that could have been colder minus the Pacific as Jeff points out...that and latent Nino heat.  I would lump western NC into that statement as well.  

Yeah a normal winter around here would be welcome especially after last year's horrendous start and lack of snowfall.  I do like a weak enso. Better for us, the ao, and the Nao. 

[nrgjeff]

Pacific ocean analysis is solid from the mid-latitudes to the tropics. I like the front loaded Dec-Jan with a milder Feb. March I would just copy Feb. SER and Rockies trough going into spring tees up severe wx. Oh wait, everyone is interested in snow...

Caution is advised on the AO which is a shorter-term signal than the above two. I have already declared the snowpack signal worthless without pressure; and, it will not become apparent until November. Solar cycle is weak, but it may take another year to get buried in the min. 

Northwest flow implied by some of the charts looks good for mountain snow, but dry in the valleys. I figure SER is a secondary pattern, perhaps more often in late winter. Key for snow would be to pick up an open Gulf while still cold, in transition between the two. Just plz do not be ice.

Bottom line: It will be colder than last winter, a pretty easy call LOL. As usual in the South, big snow will require some luck with the storm track.