Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the NAM doesn't look good to me at all imo compare the 12z nam at 84 to the 0z euro at 96.... ridge is less sharp, will be less amplification because of this trough axis is further east and not digging as much and it's not neutrally tilted like the 0z euro at the same also, way more confluence on the NAM. North atlantic low is slow to get out. it would probably look like the GFS if extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Tell me about it. I teach stats and I would rather analyze models than do statistical analysis!!! By the way, statistical analysis is a very valuable field, I use it a lot in my work. Thank goodness I am not the "analyzer". Sorry for the distraction, back to the model discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Actually, once the pattern breaks down, we'll have a long warm and dry winter. Thats fine then...i hope it gets warm then, 60s so i can be outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the NAM doesn't look good to me at all imo compare the 12z nam at 84 to the 0z euro at 96.... ridge is less sharp, will be less amplification because of this trough axis is further east and not digging as much and it's not neutrally tilted like the 0z euro at the same also, way more confluence on the NAM. North atlantic low is slow to get out. it would probably look like the GFS if extrapolated The 6Z GFS at 90 looks nothing like the 12Z NAM at 84 at 500mb GFS - pos tilt, NAM trying to going neg GFS rouge vortmax in GOM, NAM better phase GFS flat flow ahead of it, NAM ridging out ahead. Please stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 50/50 low much further SW on NAM at 84 vs 00z Euro at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 50/50 low much further SW on NAM at 84 vs 00z Euro at 96. Yeah, that is not a good thing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, that is not a good thing at all. The NAM had this storm retrograding and giving snow to NY and NJ in a run a few days ago. It was very far sw with the feature, and might be here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If you doubt the euro...read the discussion from HPC...and I think you might be more optimistic with its solutions. Since the euro first came on board..it has been the most consistent model by far. The GFS has had everything from a massive blizzard to a complete miss. I admit....I had to learn the hard way...when in doubt...trust the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Since when was the nam to be taken literally, outside 48 hours it doesn't have the best track record I believe. I think waiting till 12z gfs/euro would be more like it to see what the next runs have to say whether it be east or west of there current track(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM had this storm retrograding and giving snow to NY and NJ in a run a few days ago. It was very far sw with the feature, and might be here as well. What storm? NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I realize everyone is anxious...but comeon lets stop extrapolating the 84 hour NAM, the model changes its solution nearly every run at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 859 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010 ...HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK/IMPACT OF POWERFUL EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SUN-MON... AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF AND SHARPENING W-CNTRL NOAM RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EARLY SAT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING OF AN EVOLVING ERN CONUS TROF THAT SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST AROUND DAY 5 MON. UPSTREAM FLOW SHOULD TREND FLATTER WITH TIME AS ERN PAC TROF ENERGY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE WEST BY SUN-MON AND CONTINUE EWD THEREAFTER... WHILE ADDITIONAL ERN PAC ENERGY WITH GENERALLY MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TOWARD/INTO THE WEST. THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE WRN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KICK OUT THE DEEP ERN TROF BY TUE-WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST OR GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 2-3 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWITCH FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A SUPPRESSED PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS ADJUSTMENT... THE UKMET TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED TO A VERY SUPPRESSED SOLN ACROSS THE GULF... ADDING SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE FCST. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THE GULF REGION STILL DEPENDS HEAVILY ON SHRTWV DETAILS OF NRN STREAM FLOW... WITH WHICH MODELS SOMETIMES HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY UNTIL WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF THE VALID TIME. OF PARTICULAR NOTE THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE ON THE SHARP/WWD ELONGATED SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH ENERGY OVER THE WRN GRTLKS/UPR MS VLY AS OF EARLY DAY 4 SUN. THIS ORIENTATION OF FLOW LIKELY PLAYS A PART IN THOSE GFS RUNS TRACKING THE DEEPENING WRN ATLC SFC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER MORE SUPPORT FOR A SHARPER AND MORE N-S ORIENTED TROF THAN RECENT GFS RUNS. WHILE THE 00Z AND 12Z/21 ECMWF EVOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY EXTREME WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID LVL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE EAST COAST... THEY APPEAR A LITTLE MORE COMPATIBLE WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN IDEAS VERSUS GFS RUNS. AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WWD OF ALL 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE ADMITTEDLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN RESOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT MAY WELL SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLN... IT IS TOO EARLY TO SUBSCRIBE FULLY TO ITS FCST. A SOLN IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD STILL APPEARS REASONABLE THOUGH. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A BLEND CONSISTING OF 30 PCT EACH 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z/21 ECMWF RUNS WITH THE REMAINING 40 PCT OCCUPIED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PREFERRED BLEND FOR THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TONES DOWN THE 00Z ECMWF THAT IS ON THE SHARP/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE MID LVL TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON DAY 4 SUN. CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS OF ERN PAC TO PLAINS/GRTLKS FLOW DECREASES AS AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN FLOW LIKEWISE DECREASES. BY DAY 7 WED THE MOST COMMON IDEAS OF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE TOWARD A WEAK SHRTWV REACHING THE GRTLKS AND VICINITY... A SHRTWV TROF NEARING THE WEST COAST... AND A MODERATE TROF REACHING NWRN MEXICO. ECMWF RUNS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BETTER THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS WHICH APPEAR SOME WHAT SLOW. EXPECT SOME LOCALLY MDT-HVY PCPN OVER CNTRL-NRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LEADING TROF EJECTING INTO THE WEST. EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST MON-TUE... BUT THE DAY 7 SHRTWV MAY PUSH PCPN SWD AGAIN BY NEXT WED. RAUSCH/CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Since when was the nam to be taken literally, outside 48 hours it doesn't have the best track record I believe. I think waiting till 12z gfs/euro would be more like it to see what the next runs have to say whether it be east or west of there current track(s). That's probably the most reasonable thing we all ought to do at this point.. If the Euro continues w/ it's rather robust solution, we'll probably be in good shape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 859 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010 ...HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK/IMPACT OF POWERFUL EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SUN-MON... AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF AND SHARPENING W-CNTRL NOAM RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EARLY SAT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING OF AN EVOLVING ERN CONUS TROF THAT SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST AROUND DAY 5 MON. UPSTREAM FLOW SHOULD TREND FLATTER WITH TIME AS ERN PAC TROF ENERGY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE WEST BY SUN-MON AND CONTINUE EWD THEREAFTER... WHILE ADDITIONAL ERN PAC ENERGY WITH GENERALLY MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TOWARD/INTO THE WEST. THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE WRN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KICK OUT THE DEEP ERN TROF BY TUE-WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST OR GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 2-3 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWITCH FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A SUPPRESSED PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS ADJUSTMENT... THE UKMET TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED TO A VERY SUPPRESSED SOLN ACROSS THE GULF... ADDING SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE FCST. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THE GULF REGION STILL DEPENDS HEAVILY ON SHRTWV DETAILS OF NRN STREAM FLOW... WITH WHICH MODELS SOMETIMES HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY UNTIL WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF THE VALID TIME. OF PARTICULAR NOTE THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE ON THE SHARP/WWD ELONGATED SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH ENERGY OVER THE WRN GRTLKS/UPR MS VLY AS OF EARLY DAY 4 SUN. THIS ORIENTATION OF FLOW LIKELY PLAYS A PART IN THOSE GFS RUNS TRACKING THE DEEPENING WRN ATLC SFC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER MORE SUPPORT FOR A SHARPER AND MORE N-S ORIENTED TROF THAN RECENT GFS RUNS. WHILE THE 00Z AND 12Z/21 ECMWF EVOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY EXTREME WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID LVL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE EAST COAST... THEY APPEAR A LITTLE MORE COMPATIBLE WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN IDEAS VERSUS GFS RUNS. AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WWD OF ALL 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE ADMITTEDLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN RESOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT MAY WELL SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLN... IT IS TOO EARLY TO SUBSCRIBE FULLY TO ITS FCST. A SOLN IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD STILL APPEARS REASONABLE THOUGH. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A BLEND CONSISTING OF 30 PCT EACH 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z/21 ECMWF RUNS WITH THE REMAINING 40 PCT OCCUPIED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PREFERRED BLEND FOR THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TONES DOWN THE 00Z ECMWF THAT IS ON THE SHARP/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE MID LVL TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON DAY 4 SUN. CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS OF ERN PAC TO PLAINS/GRTLKS FLOW DECREASES AS AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN FLOW LIKEWISE DECREASES. BY DAY 7 WED THE MOST COMMON IDEAS OF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE TOWARD A WEAK SHRTWV REACHING THE GRTLKS AND VICINITY... A SHRTWV TROF NEARING THE WEST COAST... AND A MODERATE TROF REACHING NWRN MEXICO. ECMWF RUNS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BETTER THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS WHICH APPEAR SOME WHAT SLOW. EXPECT SOME LOCALLY MDT-HVY PCPN OVER CNTRL-NRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LEADING TROF EJECTING INTO THE WEST. EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST MON-TUE... BUT THE DAY 7 SHRTWV MAY PUSH PCPN SWD AGAIN BY NEXT WED. RAUSCH/CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Someone correct me if I'm wrong though, but the gfs or models initiated off the gfs have a bad track record with southern stream events. Hence, the euro sticking with its solution the past several days and as mentioned on the radio show last night by dt and other mets the european does a much better job with these setups than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Someone correct me if I'm wrong though, but the gfs or models initiated off the gfs have a bad track record with southern stream events. Hence, the euro sticking with its solution the past several days and as mentioned on the radio show last night by dt and other mets the european does a much better job with these setups than the gfs. The euro has a bias of hanging back energy too long in the desert southwest, so until that energy comes inland and gets out of there, you have to wary of that. Its 24hr forecast vs the 500mb 12z initialization did look good this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow, 24 hours and it goes from Cape Hatteras not even to Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why are we still at frickin Day 6!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Those are yesterday afternoon's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is the updated HPC map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is the updated HPC map. Probably headed more OTS from that position? But for coastal sections probably a good hit. Hope it comes to fruition for my backyard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Tombo, are you going to be doing the play-by-play for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 33 low in se CO...light to mod preciep in the dakotas and light preciep for tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 30- energy is weaker compare to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 45 broad area of low pressure in southern tx...preciep from south tx to MSP.......good snowstorm going on from KC-southern minn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 42 northern stream trying to dive in a bit more than at 48 from previous run. this in turn helping to pump ridge slight out ahead and push confluence further north a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 comparing hr 57 to the 06z gfs it does not seem as progressive as its digging a bit more......def wetter for the upper midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 48 def. more northern stream interaction. confluence a bit stronger but getting pushed NE quicker due to ridge in response to northern stream energy trying to phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Per e-wall definately a step in right direction. N energy digging more - higher heights on e coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 99 she is trying to come up the coast... 996 150 miles se of hse....central nc light to mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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