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July 4th weather


SACRUS
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On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  


image.thumb.png.b050734a43ead2b50c0658cfb5512a68.png

 

 

Year.   23..21..20..19..18..17...16..15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93
 EWR: 91..84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97
 LGA:. 87..79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92
 TTN:  85..79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92
 JFK:  85..75..85....87...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96
 NYC: 85..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95

 

 

 


July 4th weekend starting Jul 3rd coming into day 11 range .    Ridge buiding into the east / centered into the Midwest OH by Jun 30 - Jul 4th.  Coast/beaches/shore could see more onshore with heat inland.  Plenty of time as of now Euro / GFS both warm and look ok for the 4th , ridge is centered west so watch for isolated tstroms type of pattern.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:


July 4th weekend starting Jul 3rd coming into day 11 range .    Ridge buiding into the east / centered into the Midwest OH by Jun 30 - Jul 4th.  Coast/beaches/shore could see more onshore with heat inland.  Plenty of time as of now Euro / GFS both warm and look ok for the 4th , ridge is centered west so watch for isolated tstroms type of pattern.

We really need a nice 4th of July weekend after that terrible Memorial Day weekend. 

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Coming into D 8/9.  Overall looking warm - hot as ridge is regressing a bit so could yield some isolated showers/storms the perid 2-3-4th looks hot especially west / inland of the beaches.  

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Euro July 4th looking HOT but how hot and where in the region ? Other problem may be we are located in the "Ring of Fire" with storms on the edge of the heat dome

sfct-imp.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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July 4th is not looking that good as of now especially in the evening as that is when the cooler system from the northeast is going to push the heat dome further west and we will be on the edge known as the "Ring of Fire" with storms possible - timing is the key here and too far away to determine that

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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Outside after a scattered t-storm is brutal. Sure the temperature is lower, but with all the evaporation from that storm and the lower temp, the air is much closer to saturation. It is the worst sticky soupy feeling. Much prefer the low RH with the triple digit heat that comes before.

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3rd / 4th / 5h : 6th : 
Opens blazing hot Fri/Sat - i still think most fireworks are uninterrupted with isolated to scatteered showers of course models focus thos storms in the 6pm - mid night timeframe, but its not widespread.  Sunday looks to drop back and pending on clouds might break the heatwave.  Monday remains a bit unsettled.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Many towns holding large outdoor  events will error on the side of caution Friday and Saturday because of the extreme heat warnings and at least a 50% chance of T-storms and reschedule - those 2 combined are dangerous even for younger people. Unfortunately I am sure emergency rooms will be packed with heat related illnesses.

starting already Mercer County, NJ Outdoor Events Postponed Due to Heat Wave

Fireworks should be ok to go given the evening start and difficult with rescheduling especially since it's a hot stretch not just one day...although T-storms could prevent them in spots.  Never fun making that call.   One time here they postponed it never rained, then rained on the reschedule date lol

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