MJO812 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Looks like Matthew will be a hurricane at the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Is there a better site to watch the recon live,better then tropical tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Actually I found one, tropical Atlantic, very detailed,with clickable data at various drop sondes live during its flight! Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:53ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 05A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 11:32:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°07'N 65°27'W (14.1167N 65.45W)B. Center Fix Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the S (172°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,390m (4,560ft) at 850mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound:64kts (~ 73.6mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 80kts (From the ENE at ~ 92.1mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):15°C (59°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 850mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center at 11:18:00ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 11kts (From the E at 13mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Look at the insane agreement on a hook back to the coast that we had with Sandy when it was near Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 GFS is a good bit west of previous runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 GFS makes landfall in NC, center just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS makes landfall in NC, center just offshore HR 174 right over the OBX. 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS makes landfall in NC, center just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 GFS is an Irene redux Storms rides the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 40+MPH winds for most coastal areas 20-40MPH well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Welp..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public. Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is. Similar to Sandy. Even if it misses a 100 miles east, it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public. Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is. Similar to Sandy. Even if it misses a 100 miles east, it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out. At this point tremendous surf and beach erosion are a lock. The great Atlantic hurricane of 1944 was over 100 miles east of Atlantic city and still managed to decimate the board walk and destroy homes: I think coastal residents should really be on top of this one even if it misses by a couple hundred miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public. Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is. Similar to Sandy. Even if it misses a 100 miles east, it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out. gimme a break, it's 8 days away on this run-FANTASY, warning anyone now would just be hype and lulls the public into a false sense of security if it goes out to sea. Look at how folks reacted to Hermine which busted 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I wouldn't get my hopes up for this one. I think this one misses for the most part. I see a close call but no cookie I wouldn't bet on anything but I'm starting to think it's more likely to keep shifting west so that Florida may get a close call, I don't know what happens as it heads north. It's forward speed and trajectory will make all the difference. Could see it brushing Florida, Carolinas and then swing NNE some 100-200 offshore Delmarva/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: At this point tremendous surf and beach erosion are a lock. The great Atlantic hurricane of 1944 was over 100 miles east of Atlantic city and still managed to decimate the board walk and destroy homes: I think coastal residents should really be on top of this one even if it misses by a couple hundred miles Agreed, even if it goes far inland starting at N.C....the onshore flow / surge would be much higher for the area. So it's a big hit either way, all depending on how strong it could get. and/or how much the mountains in Cuba screw things up. A lot of equations still out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 yes, this is fantasy land, but as others have said, we got locked onto sandy pretty early in the game because of model insistence. one thing i have noticed on all of the solutions is that it maintains a tropical look wherever it goes. that could be noise at this point, but most solutions keep the precip field intact and rather heavy. While this wouldn't have near the damage of Sandy, it would be cool to have a more "tropical" storm in the area, with howling winds to go along with sideways rain. not to mention that convection helps mix down some of those intense gusts from the upper levels. this is merely an analysis of current model solutions, not an endorsement of any. I do feel confident this will impact the US in some way, even if it does not make any actual landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 28 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public. Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is. Similar to Sandy. Even if it misses a 100 miles east, it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out. Hype much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 The GFS track verbatim would be pretty terrible for the Northern NJ and NYC coastal areas. This is translating to 50-60MPH at the surface where you see the purple shading. Luckily, it's a fast mover. Best comparison I can think of track/impact wise from NC to up here is Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 GEFS doesnt look as good as 6z based off the mean. More swing and misses on this run compared to the past Still a ways out so any solution is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 BTW the GEFS mean is East of the Benchmark but it definitely has a solid clustering of members near the SNJ coast in 8-9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291736 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 ...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 67.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42059 has recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late today. RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts of an inch or less expected. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euro crosses the Southern tip of Haiti, probably the best case scenario if you're hoping to keep lander interaction to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euro with a cane in the Central Bahamas day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euros making a big leap west, and a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euro 960mb about 400 miles East of Jackonsville Florida day 9, but moving ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 It was right there, but no cigar. The door is definitely open for it to come back West on future runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 In fact it was so close at hour 240, it may have come back if the run continued. Onto 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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