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Jim Martin

Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

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Will be heading west from KC after work today. Just don't know where. Hopefully the next model runs help shore up my decision. And hopefully I'm not too late.

 

Should I mention that I may be kicking myself a bit for not getting out yesterday? Yay, I'm kicking myself.

We left St. John, stared at the cell, didn't like how it looked, decided to take a down day and went and got dinner. We looked at vis sat at the one time the massive OFB was obscured and didn't bother checking a longer loop. We also saw the overshooting top and said "that's too large to be an overshooting top, it must be falling apart and spreading out". Good lessons to be learned from yesterday, and I don't think the SPC blew it, as it didn't really become an evident play until 20Z or so.

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I know this isn't the only ingredient to a severe weather forecast, but SBCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis is up to 6,000 in portions of western Oklahoma....at 10:30AM.  Extraordinary.

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I know this isn't the only ingredient to a severe weather forecast, but SBCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis is up to 6,000 in portions of western Oklahoma....at 10:30AM. Extraordinary.

I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge

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I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge

Good to know. Thanks!

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I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge

pretty ridiculous to see that at 11 AM. Incredible.

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Looking like once again it will be the mesoscale features that will determine the severity of today's weather across Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.

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Wow, ridiculous numbers. OT but hope Durant and the boys end series tonight!

Same here! We'll see if I can watch the game in my living room or will be streaming from the shelter, lol.

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That's convectively contaminated. It is not a representation of what the environment will actually be.

 

Good to know. Figured something looked a little off, as there were no readings like that earlier.

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...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEB...ACROSS

KS...INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN

NEBRASKA...KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL

TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE

POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...NEB/KS...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW NEAR DDC...WITH A

WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A VERY

MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR

OF THE LOW...WHERE NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE

APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THIS

AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER

EVENT OVER PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB.

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW

OVER SOUTHWEST KS...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MESSY

WITH MIXED MODES. HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WIND

FIELDS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SUGGESTS THE RISK OF STRONG

TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME RISK OF MULTIPLE

ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS AS STORMS EMANATING FROM CO

MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK.

...WESTERN OK/WEST TX...

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE STEEP LAPSE

RATES AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF TX/OK. THIS IS LEADING TO

RAPID BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING/STABILIZATION IN SEVERAL MODEL

SOLUTIONS. WHILE THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT...IT IS LIKELY

OVERDONE. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE

MAINTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED

SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW

TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO

EXIST OVER NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF WIND FIELDS

AND FORCING WILL OVERLAP.

..HART/COOK.. 05/26/2016

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Man, this seems like a late pull of the trigger. Better late than never I guess.

The outlook was out at 11:30am local time, not late at all, plenty of time to prepare. Nothing wrong with what they did, nailing down the details.

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Do we need a new thread for today?

Would be kind of pointless.

This is a good catch-all thread for this whole active period.

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