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Jim Martin

Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

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Was on the Dodge City cell along with a kazillion other people. Still amazing to witness - top 5 chase day.

 

e5C5bBE.jpg

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This video has a good overview of the tornado fest near Dodge City:

 

 

So many tornadoes... *drools*

 

What is with this May and violent stovepipe tornadoes? Making up lost ground as expected.

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I will say this with respect to tomorrow and especially Thursday, the system associated with that trough is very strong looking ogg the California coast. At this point I wouldn't be shocked if Thursday ends up being a MDT.

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Meh discussion relative to what it looks like Thursday actually could be, in my opinion... Given all the dynamics in play... steep lapse rates, very moist BL, impressive LLJ as soon as 21Z and especially by 00z, impressive SFC-cyclone over SW KS resulting in backed SFC winds along the dryline, and a strong mid-level jet punching into the warm sector at a favorable time resulting in ample ascent for CI, see no reason not to expect widespread severe. Does seem like biggest concern is over VBV, it will be hard to figure out how much of an impact it will have on storm-mode/updrafts until the day of, given that it is mainly above 500mb, I am not sure... But storm motions on the NAM might be just good enough to stat aware from tons of storm interactions.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB AND KS SWD INTO  
WRN OK...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
CNTRL-SRN PLAINS INTO IA/MO...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND  
EWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH  
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT EWD  
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A LEAD DISTURBANCE  
WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH THE  
PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER FLOW H5 FLOW REMAINING NEAR THE DRYLINE WWD  
INTO W TX AND ERN NM DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. A SURFACE  
LOW INVOF SWRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN  
ATTENDANT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND NNEWD FROM THE  
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  
   
..CNTRL KS/OK/TX
 
 
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD  
INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS  
S-CNTRL INTO ERN PARTS OF TX DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS  
WITH MODULATIONS OF THE WIND PROFILE AS FAR N AS OK DURING THE DAY.  
A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SEEMINGLY EXPAND EARLY  
ACROSS CNTRL-ERN TX AMIDST A BUOYANT AIRMASS WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR  
SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF AN ISOLD  
HAIL/WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.  
 
THE FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT  
FARTHER W NEAR AND E OF THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING  
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING A DESTABILIZING/MOIST BOUNDARY  
LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS 13-16 G PER KG/ WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY /1500-3500 J PER KG  
MLCAPE/. THE WIND PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE AND  
UPPER-LEVEL BACKING ARE RESULTING IN SOME PROGGED WEAKNESSES THAT  
WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY.  
NONETHELESS...A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING  
SUPERCELLS/ WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TO VERY  
LARGE-HAIL THREAT...ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A  
COUPLE OF TORNADOES TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND  
HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE. A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE PERHAPS  
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO  
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY.  
   
..CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
 
 
A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS  
THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH IT PERHAPS POSING AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE  
RISK. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARC WWD INTO THE  
CNTRL PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST TO STRONGLY  
DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE LOW  
IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 HEIGHT FALLS /30  
M PER 12 HR/ WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ISOLD-SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND DEVELOPING NEWD NEAR THE FRONT.  
STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE  
WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND ROTATION WITH THE  
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. RELATIVELY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NE OF THE  
SURFACE LOW MAY YIELD A PERIOD WHEN SRH INCREASES INTO THE 200-300  
M2/S2 RANGE WITH A QUASI-DISCRETE MODE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL  
MESOCYCLONE ENHANCEMENT PRIOR TO THE TERMINUS OF A SLY LLJ BECOMING  
FOCUSED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND LIKELY LEADING  
TO UPSCALE GROWTH OF A TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. AS THE  
LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT  
RISK FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE  
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.  
 
..SMITH.. 05/25/2016  

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Read: VBV.

Well aware. Still a bit uncertain as to the type of effects it'll produce, especially being above 500mb.

 

Strong low-level winds will be in place on Thursday whenever CI occurs. 4/26 had terrible low-level winds when CI occurred, which led to a mess pretty quickly. So probably a much better threat than that day saw. Also mid-level winds on that day were pretty well backed, on thursday it is really only above 500mb. A bit different and more unclear as to the effects that it will have because of that. As long as tons of storm interactions can be avoided (like there were on 4/26 since mid-level winds were backed, and led to northerly storm motions) with the strong LLJ in place, we'll still have a pretty good severe storm threat-- including tornadoes.

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Well, big congrats to everyone who was out today. Very happy for all the chasecationers who chose their week wisely. I will say that after 10 years of "hardcore," obsessive chasing and something like 200-250 chases for me, today is absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt #1 on my list. A career chase day if there ever was one. My initial impression is that only Harper Co. 5/29/04 and Woonsocket/Manchester 6/24/03 were better storms than DDC today in the 2000-present period. I hope you guys who are only here a few days out of the year can appreciate it properly, especially if this was your first year!! :lol:

 

Maybe by sometime in June I'll get through my backlog of pics and video from the past 3 days.

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So what are all you chasecationers/chasers thinking preliminarily for today? If you plan on chasing of course.

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Well, big congrats to everyone who was out today. Very happy for all the chasecationers who chose their week wisely. I will say that after 10 years of "hardcore," obsessive chasing and something like 200-250 chases for me, today is absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt #1 on my list. A career chase day if there ever was one. My initial impression is that only Harper Co. 5/29/04 and Woonsocket/Manchester 6/24/03 were better storms than DDC today in the 2000-present period. I hope you guys who are only here a few days out of the year can appreciate it properly, especially if this was your first year!!

Maybe by sometime in June I'll get through my backlog of pics and video from the past 3 days.

So glad I was preoccupied and feeling lazy and decided to sit this one out in Norman. :axe:

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

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4/26 had terrible low-level winds when CI occurred, which led to a mess pretty quickly[...] As long as tons of storm interactions can be avoided (like there were on 4/26 since mid-level winds were backed, and led to northerly storm motions) with the strong LLJ in place, we'll still have a pretty good severe storm threat-- including tornadoes.

Being out on 4/26 and seeing 3 *brief* tornadoes (which somehow never made it to TOP as LSRs), I think the biggest single thing that would have helped that day is to have had a weaker OFB and/or more distance between the OFB and the warm front. Cells were just popping on that OFB like crazy and which lead to a large cold pool very early. You can't really forecast mesoscale influences like that unfortunately, but with everything else remaining the same, just slightly different OFB characteristics and the day could have been "salvaged" from a chasing perspective.

As for what chasecationers are doing, most that I know and including myself are considering this a down day after a busy 4 days.

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Turning our attention to Thursday, I'd like to see some VBV issues worked out and shear vectors more perpendicular to the dryline but all in all there look to be a few tornadoes late tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially as a strong LLJ backs more across the warm sector. Chasing wise, the NAM says WF while the GFS says dryline. Personally, I'll be someone along and just east of the dryline in Central KS.

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Yeah central KS and north looks pretty significant. I'm probably done chasing this year, given the OK portion of the threat area looks like total garbage.

And I easily couldve made the Dodge city storm and very much wanted to, but my chase partners were incredibly indecisive and made rather poor decisions. Safe to say I'm pretty fed up with the season!

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Yeah central KS and north looks pretty significant. I'm probably done chasing this year, given the OK portion of the threat area looks like total garbage.

And I easily couldve made the Dodge city storm and very much wanted to, but my chase partners were incredibly indecisive and made rather poor decisions. Safe to say I'm pretty fed up with the season!

 

Sucks that you're the only one failing.  You should give it another shot!

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So what are all you chasecationers/chasers thinking preliminarily for today? If you plan on chasing of course.

 

I'm sitting in Pratt right now. Also have to think about where I'm going to position myself for tomorrow and Friday. Probably will end up staying closer to 400 in S KS since playing the northern target tomorrow would lead to potentially missing a great day further south on Friday. I really like that trough axis right over the warm sector with the LLJ further W on the NAM. The Euro is surging the LLJ really far E on Friday, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

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Ah... So a bit of an off day today-- not like it isn't anyways...

Anyways, heres the new D2.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...NRN AND CNTRL KS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
SWD INTO W CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CO AT 00Z AND A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
MAX MOVING INTO WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL BACK SFC
WINDS ACROSS NEB...WITH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD
INTO NERN CO. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSEWD FROM THE LOW
INTO WRN OK...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY AND RETREATING INTO WRN TX
LATE. THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 00Z PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL.


ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
OVER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...NERN CO...SRN NEB...NRN KS...
BACKING WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD
INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE VERY COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDS
ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THIS AREA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN AND CNTRL
KS. HERE...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION...AND A
MODERATE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.


...W CNTRL TX INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER SWRN INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...NRN WI INTO UPPER MI...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SLY 850 MB FLOW PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/25/2016

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Wouldn't be surprised to see the cap breached sometime later in OK, as temps have soared into the 87-91 range (they will likely increase some too), and impressive DPs continue to be advected poleward... Chickasha is particularly impressive at 90/75.

 

Anyways, surveys have really just started, but DDC can already confirm at least EF3 SSW of DDC yesterday (not sure which tornado it is from since they did not say.) Also, DOW7 from CSWR appears to have had a delta V of 90m/s... which equates to 201mph, not sure how high the beam was though, presumably it was pretty low. From Karen Kosiba on twitter:

First, pretty sick image on reflectivity when the first tornado formed.CjUdJdWVEAAZKsg.png

Second, occluding circulation to the left in the rain (looks like a hurricane), with a new circulation forming. (Notice how strong the occluding circulation still is!) Also a 90m/s delta-v, pretty pronounced.

CjUdKRnUUAAAGjm.png

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actually, that's the eye of re.  the eye of horus points the other direction/is the left eye.

 

I stand corrected! Figures there would be somebody here who would know about that. I just did a google image search for "eye of horus" and picked a result at random. So the Eye of Re is like an anticyclonic Eye of Horus. Cool resemblance either way. 

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Heading E out of Kingman. 75 dewpoint at ICT, will head north on K-14 towards HUT, can see towers trying to go up on the dryline to the east.

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SPC also added 5% TOR risk at 20Z for this same area. Eerily similar look to yesterday with the orientation of dryline and OFB, SFC/LLVL winds just not nearly as backed attm. IF updrafts do go, they will be EXPLOSIVE. 4000-6000J/KG MUCAPE, thanks to MLVL Lapse Rates of 8.0-8.5C/KM... 35-40kt effective-shear as well... If any storms do form a tornado threat would likely become enhanced when LLJ influence kicks in.

mcd0726.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

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some pretty cool time lapses from the Dodge City area (see pinned tweet)

 

https://twitter.com/WxKanost

 

They got some great shots out of that storm -- I'm slightly jealous. I'll be out there next week for a couple weeks. (Probably in time for a nice death ridge)

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ww0210_overview_big_wou.gif

50/20 probs. 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL KANSAS  
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM  
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS  
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN  
OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE. WHILE ONLY A  
FEW STORMS MAY FORM...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL  
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THOSE CELLS.  

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Looks like some towers trying to pop in SC KS... As well as near the meso-low in C KS.

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