rolltide_130 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Yeah... Lawton cell beginning to look less impressive in all aspects. Might just be cycling though... Doubtful. It's moving into a more capped environment overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 4 confirmed TOG's in Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Out of the 7 discrete storms in KS/OK, only 2 of them are right movers. There's one along the KS/OK border and then the tor warned one near Lawton, OK. The latter will likely run into the more capped environment soon and weaken, while the northern one may be hindered by a left mover. We'll see how it plays out, but those two storms will likely be the only real potential in the main threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0633 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150...VALID 082333Z - 090100ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASETHROUGH EARLY EVENING /THROUGH 01-02Z/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS ASSTORMS GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUESUNTIL 03Z/10 PM CDT. PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO BEMONITORED FOR A SPATIAL WATCH EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH...FOR MAINLY ANISOLATED SEVERE HAIL RISK.DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW ACROSSSOUTHWEST KS WITH A NORTHEASTWARD-EXTENDING WARM FRONT ACROSSWEST-CENTRAL KS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEB...WITH A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDINGDRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS/WEST OF THE GREAT BEND-PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE AREAS AS OF 23Z/. AZONE OF CLOUDY/RAIN-COOLED AIR IS ALSO A FACTOR ALONG AND EAST OFI-35/I-135 AND THE KS TURNPIKE VICINITY.WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITHLOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDE...WHILE A MORECOMPLEX/LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVEACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.COINCIDENT WITH MODEST PRESSURE FALLS...SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TOBACK SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL KS. WHILE CURVINGLOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE OBSERVED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROMWICHITA/DODGE CITY/VANCE AIR FORCE BASE...LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDSPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY OVERLY STRONG AS OF 23Z...ALTHOUGHNONETHELESS SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK. THAT SAID...LOW-LEVELWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z...WHICHCOULD ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK /PERHAPS EVEN A STRONGTORNADO OR TWO/ ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTONORTH-CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.FARTHER EAST...ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE/GENERALLY ELEVATEDTHUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRALKS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULDREMAIN LIMITED BY THE COOL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUTISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILLCONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS EASTERN KS...GUYER.. 05/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like the FDR cell was just cycling, looking at its reflectivity presentation at least... Rotation is broad, if there at all... Woods county supercell is starting to improve, doubt that the left-mover to its south will cause any deleterious interference since the right mover is quite a bit slower than the left, and the left mover is weakening substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I hope the bad stuff avoids me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like the FDR cell was just cycling, looking at its reflectivity presentation at least... Rotation is broad, if there at all... Woods county supercell is starting to improve, doubt that the left-mover to its south will cause any deleterious interference since the right mover is quite a bit slower than the left, and the left mover is weakening substantially.OFB thrown off from the left mover is moving northward towards the Alva storm. We'll see how it might affect it soon enough; such as cutting off its inflow, producing a quick spin-up, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I think rotation is more narrow than it was before at Geronimo/Central High OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 NEC145-090000- /O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160509T0000Z/ RED WILLOW NE- 644 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL RED WILLOW COUNTY... AT 643 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANOLA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 641 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR INDIANOLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Tor warned storm east of Lawton is showing a nice couplet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 700 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 KSC051-090030- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160509T0030Z/ ELLIS KS- 700 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY... AT 659 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CATHERINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 AT 659 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CATHERINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. RADAR INDICATED VERY INTENSE ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. Lol what? A funnel cloud is not a large/extremely dangerous tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 this storm has produced a tornado NE of Ellis and now near Catharine, KS... or perhaps the Catharine tornado is a matter of debate, if you read the last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Tornado on this stream on Lawton cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Yep. Tornado reported on Lawton cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 705 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 OKC137-090015- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160509T0015Z/ STEPHENS OK- 705 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY... AT 705 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARLOW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. TAKE COVER IN AND SOUTH OF MARLOW. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 OFB definitely disrupted the Alva, OK storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 OFB definitely disrupted the Alva, OK storm. At least for now. Could reestablish its inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Definite tornado with that PDS storm. Really strong rotation plus a CC drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 KSC051-090030- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160509T0030Z/ ELLIS KS- 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY... AT 708 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF CATHERINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. RDDAR INDICATED ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ELLIS COUNTY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Definite tornado with that PDS storm. Really strong rotation plus a CC drop. Matthew Mccune is on that cell http://zoomradar.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 That PDS warning north of Hayes is for only a reported funnel cloud and radar based rotation. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Lol what? A funnel cloud is not a large/extremely dangerous tornado. As WFO's continue to abuse enhanced wording with increasing frequency, the affectiveness of it will be simply run straight into the ground. It is used way, way too liberally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 That PDS warning north of Hayes is for only a reported funnel cloud and radar based rotation. Interesting. That storm is in a terrible radar spot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY... AT 717 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CODELL...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF EMMERAM... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. A STORM CHASER CONFIRMED A TORNADO 9 MILES NW OF EMMERAM AT 713 PM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTHEAST ELLIS COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3904 9904 3888 9934 3902 9948 3913 9932 3913 9904 TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 231DEG 43KT 3913 9911 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...2.75IN $$ TURNER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Was the Lawton storm confirmed on the ground or only radar indicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 Was the Lawton storm confirmed on the ground or only radar indicated? There was a brief tornado on it. KWTV (Val Castor) had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 another SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 733 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 KSC141-163-090045- /O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160509T0045Z/ OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS- 733 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSBORNE AND SOUTHEASTERN ROOKS COUNTIES... AT 731 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CODELL...OR 39 MILES SOUTH OF PHILLIPSBURG...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Lol what? A funnel cloud is not a large/extremely dangerous tornado. As WFO's continue to abuse enhanced wording with increasing frequency, the affectiveness of it will be simply run straight into the ground. It is used way, way too liberally. Disagree in this instance. When you have intense rotation and a funnel cloud I am okay with the extreme wording. Probably would have been beneficial in a circumstance like El Reno where once the couplet tightened you had intense widening and strengthening within seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 There was a brief tornado on it. KWTV (Val Castor) had it. Thanks, found the video on his facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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