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Wild Weekend Weather- Disco 04/02-/04/03


Damage In Tolland

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Looking at soundings and VV's, for once that snow map is way underdone in EMA

 

They are really sensitive to sfc temp, so they probably punish E MA for being like 33F and snow when in reality those types of rates are just going to overwhelm the sfc if it actually panned out as modeled. When you have 3 hr qpf near half an inch, it's not gonna matter if the sfc is 33F or 31F.

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They are really sensitive to sfc temp, so they probably punish E MA for being like 33F and snow when in reality those types of rates are just going to overwhelm the sfc if it actually panned out as modeled.

Yes, the soundings show just an ideal snow growth zone too. As depicted thats a quick punishing.

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Yes, the soundings show just an ideal snow growth zone too. As depicted thats a quick punishing.

 

The H5 temps drop to like -33C...lol. That is just sick lapse rates. Hard not to salivate at the NAM even though it's probably not going to verify. It's trying to nuke the atmosphere over BID/MVY.

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Ummm. Yes. It's a trop fold. Stop looking at qpf outputs and snow maps. Thought that was proven with the last snowstorm last week

What do QPF and snow maps have to do with wind?

I asked about 50-70+ and you say Umm yes stop looking at snow maps.

And last week's event the QPF was pretty good if not too-high. It verified a little drier than progged if you looked at the melted obs.

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Yup, just a piece of guidance and a conservative place to start.

Bufkit has an insane 2 hour period of near 4 inch snows each hour at BED

160403/1300Z  67  34014KT  32.8F  SNOW   18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202   18:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24   86|  0| 14
160403/1400Z  68  33022KT  31.5F  SNOW   22:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167   20:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0
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We'll start with 6" in ORH and adjust upward if need be.

I'll admit part of me posted that because of the difference between TOL and ORH, haha.

And sure enough it was followed up with a "don't look at snow maps" in response to the wind discussion....though I'm sure if that 5" was further south there'd be no objections :lol:.

We wait now, as we know someone will be posting snow maps from Twitter if any look good.

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Im not sure what you mean. On that NAM solution it would gust over 50 everywhere and 70+ over the coast.

Ryan has gusts over 50mph on his telecast this eve

 

Look at the model data on the NAM... its not that impressive for wind.  It would be with snow falling and 30mph but every sounding I'm seeing is showing the coast with gusts to 50mph (30kts sustained) while the interior is 15-25kts. 

 

I'm not trying to be a dick, but you won't find a NAM prog showing those winds you are talking about verbatim.

 

 

Bufkit has an insane 2 hour period of near 4 inch snows each hour at BED

160403/1300Z  67  34014KT  32.8F  SNOW   18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202   18:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24   86|  0| 14
160403/1400Z  68  33022KT  31.5F  SNOW   22:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167   20:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0

Yeah that's insane that is hourly...I saw that and thought it was a 3-hour snapshot.

 

And to DIT's comments, the winds there are 14kts and 22kts. 

 

That's plenty of breeze to add effect if its snowing whiteout, but its not some sort of ridiculous wind event verbatim on that 18z run that has been being discussed.

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Look at the model data on the NAM... its not that impressive for wind.  It would be with snow falling and 30mph but every sounding I'm seeing is showing the coast with gusts to 50mph (30kts sustained) while the interior is 15-25kts. 

 

I'm not trying to be a dick, but you won't find a NAM prog showing those winds you are talking about verbatim.

I haven't seen any prog with the winds he said, the best winds are south of the vort max by a hundred miles, if he wants winds its congrats you on snow.

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I think today will end up windier than Sunday

 

Probably right. 

 

Two days ago when this was progged further north and SNE was in the hot seat for high winds it looked better.  But with the whole thing coming south, the wind moves south too.

 

The wind on that NAM prog down in the mid-Atlantic is pretty impressive.  The highest winds are going to be SW of the vort max on the backside.

 

The NAM has some fairly impressive sustained 30-40mph moving through the Baltimore area and mid-Atlantic. 

 

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Probably right. 

 

Two days ago when this was progged further north and SNE was in the hot seat for high winds it looked better.  But with the whole thing coming south, the wind moves south too.

 

The wind on that NAM prog down in the mid-Atlantic is pretty impressive.  The highest winds are going to be SW just behind the vort max.

 

The NAM has some fairly impressive sustained 30-40mph moving through the Baltimore area and mid-Atlantic. 

 

attachicon.gifnam_mslp_uv10m_neng_22.png

the 66 and 69 frames do slam EMA and the Cape but the interior even on all other model data is meh. Gusts to 50 might occur but again not seeing the 60-70 stuff

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I haven't seen any prog with the winds he said, the best winds are south of the vort max by a hundred miles, if he wants winds its congrats you on snow.

 

Yeah that's what I was seeing too.  Cool. 

 

The winds on the Mass coast look decent as I'm sure BOS will have some fun obs but that's sort of run of the mill there for a developing ocean storm.

 

Here are the later panels.

 

 

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the 66 and 69 frames do slam EMA and the Cape but the interior even on all other model data is meh. Gusts to 50 might occur but again not seeing the 60-70 stuff

 

lol we are leapfrogging posts.  Agreed on EMA and Cape...CHH gets wrecked.  But the interior threat seems greatly diminished from some of the progs a couple days ago.

 

Like I said though, 30mph in 2"/hr snows is plenty for effect... you don't need trees down for the wind to have an impact if that blitz of snow develops.  Its not like its going to be calm, but its also probably not uprooting trees throughout CT. 

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JUst imagine if future runs would show this H5 low closing off in time to prolong the blizzard conditions?  Just imagine, I have been so busy writing my novel and now I have a few days to watch the weather now, because my book is in the editing process.  Anyways, this has potential, but as WIll and Scott said, it probably won't be as intense as NAM shows.

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Im not sure what you mean. On that NAM solution it gusts over 50 everywhere and 70+ over the coast.

You and your model progs lol. Try looking bigger picture outside what a model shows verbatim. There's a reason why a conservative met like Ryan has gusts over 50mph

 

lol you are the master of spin.

 

Why does it matter what Ryan has?  He might not be basing his forecast off the NAM. 

 

You specifically stated the NAM and then when someone actually posts a NAM graphic you say "you and your models."

 

:lol:  Its a trip in here sometimes.

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lol you are the master of spin.

 

Why does it matter what Ryan has?  He might not be basing his forecast off the NAM. 

 

You specifically stated the NAM and then when someone actually posts a NAM graphic you say "you and your models."

 

:lol:  Its a trip in here sometimes.

Ryans forecast says gust TO 50 and maybe some a little higher and lets not forget thats probably near the coast so Tolland might see 40?

 

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/

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