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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)


Powerball

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There's been a trend to a slightly faster, weaker storm. NAM is the most illustrative of it (and probably too much so) but I also noticed it in both the 0z EURO and 6z GFS. Hopefully the 12z suite locks onto this storm given it'll be fully sampled.

Looks like we have a better shot at getting in on the FGEN band(which may overperform) but the main band has the bullseye just to our SE. Think we sit in a very good spot... the main wildcard may be getting a handle on ratios.

6z RGEM has 0.9"-1.0" of QPF at yyz.

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Looks like we have a better shot at getting in on the FGEN band(which may overperform) but the main band has the bullseye just to our SE. Think we sit in a very good spot... the main wildcard may be getting a handle on ratios.

6z RGEM has 0.9"-1.0" of QPF at yyz.

 

Seems pretty incredible at this point that 1.0" of QPF is the floor at this point with GGEM/Euro/GFS... NAM out on its own but it has been a lost soul this winter (well, most winters).

 

Will be interesting to see what solution the models lock in on after full sampling with the 12Z run today... after that, it really is game time.

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Seems pretty incredible at this point that 1.0" of QPF is the floor at this point with GGEM/Euro/GFS... NAM out on its own but it has been a lost soul this winter (well, most winters).

Will be interesting to see what solution the models lock in on after full sampling with the 12Z run today... after that, it really is game time.

I think the floor, QPF wise, is a bit lower. Here are the QPF numbers for the city. Assuming the NAM is incorrect, 8-12" is likely if models remain consistent.

GFS: 0.9"

Euro: 0.8"

Rgem: 0.9-1.0"

UKIE: 0.9"

Gem: 1.3"

Nam: 0.5"

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