kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Tornado Warning for St. Tammany Parish (NOLA Metro North Shore) along the Causeway. Same supercell from near KMSY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Tornado Warning TORNADO WARNINGLAC103-231830-/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0021.160223T1758Z-160223T1830Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 1230 PM CST* AT 1157 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILESSOUTH OF COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. WATERSPOUT FEATURE SPOTTED ONCAUSEWAY BRIDGE CAMERA.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREEDAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...LACOMBE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN AMOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIALSHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.IF ON OR NEAR NORTH LAKE PONCHARTRAIN...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER ANDMOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARECLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANPRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVEINTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATERIN A THUNDERSTORM.&&LAT...LON 3044 8982 3029 8999 3032 9001 3032 90043035 9006 3037 9010 3037 9014 3046 9008TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 206DEG 22KT 3026 9011TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton. EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lake P from NOLA NWS Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton. EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA. This is setting up to be a significant tornado event with these discrete supercells ahead of the main convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already impressed that cells have been able establish some robust mesos this early in the game. Does not bode well for later Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Live stream from WDSU. http://www.wdsu.com/news/local-news/new-orleans/live-watch-severe-weather-coverage-from-wdsu/38145012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 With how this has evolved as of 17Z it does not look like a tornado outbreak to me. Looking at both HIRES models and current radar observations, does not seem to be too much of a tornado threat. Going to be too messy. There might be a small window later this evening where the tornado threat might ramp up some, but that only matters if there are discrete/semi-discrete supercells when that window happens. Tomorrow in NC/SC looks better to me, but not by a ton. EDIT: But with all that in mind... This main lead "supercell" might have some potential later on if it can develop some more, and stay out in front of that MCS mess thats propagating into LA. Calling this before the main LLJ intensification/isallobaric backing near the surface even begins is not very wise, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already impressed that cells have been able establish some robust mesos this early in the game.Does not bode well for laterSent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk I agree. I don't see reason to seriously think about a bust right now. HRRR still looks pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already impressed that cells have been able establish some robust mesos this early in the game. Does not bode well for later Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk That is what worries me about later. This system is very potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is setting up to be a significant tornado event with these discrete supercells ahead of the main convection. Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Between Mandeville and Lacombe, LA on the north shore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure. Per HRRR and SPC discussion, those supercells aren't expected to be the main event. New storms are expected to form behind those, which will be the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I propose we are looking at two lifting boundaries today, the synoptic warm front into the Mid South and the more dangerous coastal front in the Deep South. Part of my reasoning is South pattern recognition. Also one can barely make it out in the latest HRRR charts. In addition a pre-frontal trough will be ahead of the cold front. We have plenty of boundaries to work with today and tonight. If I were chasing Mississippi/Alabama today I would target the intersection of the prefrontal trough and coastal front. See New Orleans area action. HRRR has a beast going into northeast Mississippi near the triple point but I might favor south and east of that, more on the leading edge of storms. Rather than name a target by location, I call the other boundary intersection. Track the prefrontal trough and especially coastal front. Storm motion will be seasonably fast with strong wind fields up to the mid-levels. Also 0-3 km CAPE will be more than adequate for this early season and nocturnal event. Mid South should have a nice shelfie show on the synoptic fronts, but I think the worst tornado risk is down in the Deep South overnight. Wednesday Carolina tornado threat I would place on intersecting boundaries again. Jet stream level winds become stronger over the Carolinas, compared to Deep South Tuesday, but some veer back is noted upstairs. It may not interfere if the low to mid-levels drive things like in the Deep South tonight. Perhaps time of day will not matter either this set-up. ENH is good for now Carolinas. MDT would depend on morning mesoscale details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure what hi res models some have been looking at, but the para HRRR and HRRR both look pretty nasty and extend the threat for discrete cells pretty far north into AL We'll see how things play out, but if that LLJ verifies on the HRRR, then things will get out of hand quickly. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure.It's 12:30pm local time. Way too early man. Especially when most of the nasty stuff is supposed to happen after dark. Says everything that we're already getting TOG.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Going to need those two lead Supercells to develop quite a bit more. Some clearing out in S MS, and more so S AL... Just not too sure.We aren't even near the prime threat time. 23z-03z should be the main show Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 LAC063-231845- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160223T1845Z/ LIVINGSTON LA- 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH... AT 1223 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT VINCENT... OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...MULTIPLE WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 General public is totally confused by the risk scale here in the western FL panhandle via social media. As good as the local tv Mets have been at explaining what moderate risk means it may be time for a change. Maybe a high for level 4 & extreme for level 5. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 SPC basically says... "tornadoes now? It's only going to get more favorable" MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1225 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MSCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19...VALID 231825Z - 231930ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 19 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS/TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 19.DISCUSSION...LIX VWP DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATESTRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLSON THE ORDER OF 2.0-3.5-MB PER 2 HOURS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF LA.THE HODOGRAPH FROM THE 18Z LIX RAOB IMPLIES AMPLE STREAMWISEVORTICITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-MOVINGSUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1-KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. WITH FURTHER INLANDFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/DEWPOINTS AROUND 65F EXTENDING AS FAR N AS MCB/...DESTABILIZATIONWILL CONTINUE IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS NOT ASROBUST -- PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF SERN LA. MEANWHILE...MIXEDCONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND A FEWDISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING NNEWD/NEWDACROSS SRN LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE EARLYAFTERNOON -- EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO MS. SUSTAINED MODESTLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADYOCCURRED...AND ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVELSHEAR FURTHER INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just ate lunch in Hattiesburg and now am going to ride down to Poplarville and check out the warned cell that is heading that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is just silly. 1100 m/s 0-3km SRH Pressure falls are already exceeding expectations, so I have a feeling we may be playing catch up with this treat. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This is just silly. 1100 m/s 0-3km SRH Pressure falls are already exceeding expectations, so I have a feeling we may be playing catch up with this treat. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Even if the event turns into a line overnight, that's more than enough for QLCS tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Video of three waterspouts. http://www.wwltv.com/story/weather/2016/02/23/video-triple-water-spouts-lake-pontchartrain/80805772/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Radar confirmed tornado. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We'll see This is a very serious situation and saying this is a bust before it happens WHILE TORNADOES ARE CURRENTLY TOUCHING DOWN is not very bright. This situation will get worse before it gets better. Looking at radar right now these are some nasty storms and just because it is not effecting your area doesn't mean someone else is in the clear in these areas currently under warnings. I am all for calling busts on snow storms but with storms like this it is a real time thing and people will be in a ton of danger. I am actually a little worried about my area tomorrow around the ILM area and MYB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Debris signature on CC showing up NE of Livingston now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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