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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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The cold looks to relax next week as a trough develops across the Plains and moves east. Heights rising on the East Coast will give any storm that may develop with the trough some room to cut. Lots of model disagreement, but the ECM ensemble mean has the trough taking on a negative tilt as it crosses the Mississippi which along with the blocking weakening may be enough to allow for a storm west of the Appalachians if all goes well.

 

It's a bit early for a thread and I'm still rather lukewarm on this but apparently I have the "hot hand" for magically reeling in snow for southern OH so I'm going to start this thread and see if I can pass the luck onto others...

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The other thread was created first for the clipper portion which seems to be a lock, strength TBD. This thread is for the potential "storm" that is showing on the Euro and UK.

 

the 18z gfs (for the first time) has finally found the southern storm.   Too far south and east for us as depicted, but I suspect the gfs will do it's usual stronger and further north adjustment with upcoming runs.

 

The euro ens were south and east of the OP, but still had a nice hit for OH.   The control run actually looked more like the ukmet than the euro OP, with a fairly deep storm to the WV/V border.    FWIW, the jma also has a strong storm but it is too far east for us and would be an Appalachian crusher.   

 

What I don't like about this set up is the evacuation of the cold air as the storm starts gaining latitude.   No blocking whatsoever, no reinforcing high to the north, and the WTOD would have zero resistance if the low comes too far north.    As of right now though, it still looks like most models have plenty of room to move this thing north, (except for the euro).

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the 18z gfs (for the first time) has finally found the southern storm. Too far south and east for us as depicted, but I suspect the gfs will do it's usual stronger and further north adjustment with upcoming runs.

The euro ens were south and east of the OP, but still had a nice hit for OH. The control run actually looked more like the ukmet than the euro OP, with a fairly deep storm to the WV/V border. FWIW, the jma also has a strong storm but it is too far east for us and would be an Appalachian crusher.

What I don't like about this set up is the evacuation of the cold air as the storm starts gaining latitude. No blocking whatsoever, no reinforcing high to the north, and the WTOD would have zero resistance if the low comes too far north. As of right now though, it still looks like most models have plenty of room to move this thing north, (except for the euro).

Live by the High, die by the High. If there was a strong reinforcing cold High pushing in, it would probably squash the thing to our south & we'd be wartching our southern buddies cashing in again.
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I use accuwx pro, but the Euro doesn't update until like 3 am now for some reason. What site do you use? Im looking to possibly switch.

Wx bell!!!

But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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Wx bell!!!

But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

 

yep.  One of the options with this threat was it would turn into a convoluted mess.   That really shouldn't be a surprise considering all the other storm threats this winter.

 

If I were strictly a glass half full guy I'd probably use the excuse that the euro suddenly going flat at this timeframe only to turn around is not uncommon.    But I'm a realist too, and there's so much stuff going on between the forerunner clipper, the kicker, fast flow and no blocking, that a convoluted mess kind of makes sense.

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Wx bell!!!

But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

 

lol....so I just checked the 00z para and it actually has the storm.  Takes the low just a bit east up the apps.  Mod hit for southeast OH, Appalachian big hit.

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6z GEFS have a few members showing an Apps runner type storm. But if that's all we have to hang our hat on, it's gonna be tough sledding (literally).

 

 

The EPS has a larger spread(with some big hits).

 

I don't remember an analogous setup that actually delivered around here. Looking for a four corners ridge, trough axis from Lk Mi to NOLA, ATL Can ridge and +NAO

 

March 08 to some extent but not a great match.

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The EPS has a larger spread(with some big hits).

 

I don't remember an analogous setup that actually delivered around here. Looking for a four corners ridge, trough axis from Lk Mi to NOLA, ATL Can ridge and +NAO

 

March 08 to some extent but not a great match.

 

Sad thing is the models have also been trending more ragged with the northern stream portion of the storm. QPF around here keeps getting lighter. At one point it looked like a nice "plan-B" in case a bigger storm failed to develop.

 

btw...the squall in your avatar...what event is that from? December 2013?

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Sad thing is the models have also been trending more ragged with the northern stream portion of the storm. QPF around here keeps getting lighter. At one point it looked like a nice "plan-B" in case a bigger storm failed to develop.

 

btw...the squall in your avatar...what event is that from? December 2013?

 

I wonder if we should actually root for a weakening of the northern feature.  This might allow for more ridging to the east, better digging out west and possibly a stronger, further north second storm.

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I wonder if we should actually root for a weakening of the northern feature.  This might allow for more ridging to the east, better digging out west and possibly a stronger, further north second storm.

We do this or root for it to get stronger and stronger so we at least salvage something. The way this winter is going I am going to say it will weaken, but still not help us here. Athens, OH will still wind up with 8 inches from this storm though. LOL!!!

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