Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Last nights GEFS is pretty impressive, a lot more members showing 2+ inches for DC than at 12z yesterday. I'd be interested to know they look for 6z. Also, as Ji noted GFS is much colder and surface freezing line is now near DC when it's snowing. Great trends. Now that you mentioned that, I went back on TT to see the 06Z GEFS mean...and yes, the 2-m temps look to be in the mid 30s or there about at their highest on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z NAM is raking the Jersey Shore and northward at hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Have to agree, this is for the most part noise but I do have to question if the southward progression of the precip field is actually a continuation of the general trend we have seen over the last day and a half or so with the gfs.Yesterday we saw a definite trend south but the gefs changed very little from 0-6z with the main difference being a bump up in qpf along the main axis. This indicates that both the last 2 ops are just possible results within the envelope of the consensus. "Noise". The 6z gefs did trend a bit colder though but that may be a result of it's bump up in qpf indicating less dry outliers. I only counted 2 real outliers that diverge greatly from the mean. That's ususl for this range but I guess with such a tricky setup I expected more variability. Eps was pretty consistent too with the trough over md but was a bit less impressive with qpf. Generally .4 vs .75 across the area. Last 2 gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 ? Am I looking at a different NAM? I'm out to 30 and I don't see much rakage at 21 hours? Boston gets clipped at hour 30It did come NW some but it only rakes Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If models continue to converge i would expect a WSW for area's north of 70 today. Potential is definitely there for 5+ with temps in the 20s for these area's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't start this again. You know damn well the band will be over your house. build your own snow magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If models continue to converge i would expect a WSW for area's north of 70 today. Potential is definitely there for 5+ with temps in the 20s for these area's I wonder who lives north of 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It did come NW some but it only rakes Eastern I think I'm reading that correctly. The 12k, 4k, and the 32K all show it, unless I'm already drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It did come NW some but it only rakes Eastern LI. I rechecked and my graphics were kinda off, but it definitely didn't look like rake-age. Bos gets a good clip at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wonder who lives north of 70? Many people here and the people who clearly have a better chance of seeing 5+ right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wonder who lives north of 70?Amped lives north of 70. Btw congrats on the new digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Many people here and the people who clearly have a better chance of seeing 5+ This is the max potential graphic. The most likely I believe still had 3-6 in those favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Many people here and the people who clearly have a better chance of seeing 5+ right now Rhetorical question. Maximum snow map? Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I rechecked and my graphics were kinda off, but it definitely didn't look like rake-age. Bos gets a good clip at 30 hours. Look at the 12 K images. The blues right along the coast are pretty dark on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Rhetorical question. Maximum snow map? Cool. Cool? Both maps are very close to each other same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll continue to take the GFS, 1" qpf with only the first couple hours lost to rain/snow. Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 6z para gfs looks pretty solid. 2 waves of enhanced precip move through with two pieces of upper level energy. N MD gets 1" qpf. Color me shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Cool? Both maps are very close to each other same idea. Is that one LWX's expected (mean) amount, I assume? Looks like they upped it some, at least compared to the point/click numbers I saw awhile ago. 2-4" DC area in general...of course more to the north. Does look like low-end warning criteria as you approach the PA/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 6z para gfs looks pretty solid. 2 waves of enhanced precip move through with two pieces of upper level energy. N MD gets 1" qpf. Color me shocked. paraprecip.JPG Heh! And that's quite a broad area of 0.75"+ in there too, though to be honest not sure how that compared to previous runs or the ops. (ETA: Yeah, basically I'm being too lazy to go back and look, still waking up with a coffee right now, LOL!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Is that one LWX's expected (mean) amount, I assume? Looks like they upped it some, at least compared to the point/click numbers I saw awhile ago. 2-4" DC area in general...of course more to the north. Does look like low-end warning criteria as you approach the PA/MD border. That is the most likely amount or the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z NAM is more or less a screw job for us. North of DC...I-70 and north gets in on the better stuff but nothing like the 00z run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That is the most likely amount or the official forecast. OK, that's what I thought at least looking at the title near the bottom (the other posted image was the max amount). Does look a bit higher at least from the point/click that I saw, whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam continues to be less impressed with the precip along the trough but better then 6z I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM is a yawner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 OK, that's what I thought at least looking at the title near the bottom (the other posted image was the max amount). Does look a bit higher at least from the point/click that I saw, whatever that's worth. It does. Currently that means they are leaning more toward the colder and wetter solutions...ie favored toward the max case (especially I-70 and north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That is the most likely amount or the official forecast. I've been a bit puzzled by the max amount map looking only slightly higher than the most likely range (which I think looks reasonable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I've been a bit puzzled by the max amount map looking only slightly higher than the most likely range (which I think looks reasonable) I think they are leaning more toward the higher end for their official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 You would expect the high res models to be the ones to go nuts with qpf in this type of thing but oddly it's been the globals, first the euro then recently the gfs that show better qpf. The nam rgem and Sref remain unimpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I've been a bit puzzled by the max amount map looking only slightly higher than the most likely range (which I think looks reasonable) It's not all that uncommon I don't think. You can consider the min/max as their estimate of the extremes of the envelope (or spread), so to speak, with the mean being of course the expected value. I would interpret that to imply they are hedging toward their higher numbers (more confidence in that). As I recall, they did the same for the January blizzard...the mean numbers were close to the max. ETA: Ninja'd by ers-wx above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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