Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

Last nights GEFS is pretty impressive, a lot more members showing 2+ inches for DC than at 12z yesterday.  I'd be interested to know they look for 6z.  Also, as Ji noted GFS is much colder and surface freezing line is now near DC when it's snowing.  Great trends. 

 

Now that you mentioned that, I went back on TT to see the 06Z GEFS mean...and yes, the 2-m temps look to be in the mid 30s or there about at their highest on Tuesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Have to agree, this is for the most part noise but I do have to question if the southward progression of the precip field is actually a continuation of the general trend we have seen over the last day and a half or so with the gfs.

Yesterday we saw a definite trend south but the gefs changed very little from 0-6z with the main difference being a bump up in qpf along the main axis. This indicates that both the last 2 ops are just possible results within the envelope of the consensus. "Noise". The 6z gefs did trend a bit colder though but that may be a result of it's bump up in qpf indicating less dry outliers. I only counted 2 real outliers that diverge greatly from the mean. That's ususl for this range but I guess with such a tricky setup I expected more variability. Eps was pretty consistent too with the trough over md but was a bit less impressive with qpf. Generally .4 vs .75 across the area. Last 2 gefs

post-2304-0-57591400-1454853917_thumb.jppost-2304-0-18194700-1454853929_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool? Both maps are very close to each other same idea.

 

Is that one LWX's expected (mean) amount, I assume?  Looks like they upped it some, at least compared to the point/click numbers I saw awhile ago.  2-4" DC area in general...of course more to the north.  Does look like low-end warning criteria as you approach the PA/MD border.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6z para gfs looks pretty solid. 2 waves of enhanced precip move through with two pieces  of upper level energy. N MD gets 1" qpf. Color me shocked. 

 

attachicon.gifparaprecip.JPG

 

Heh!  And that's quite a broad area of 0.75"+ in there too, though to be honest not sure how that compared to previous runs or the ops.  (ETA:  Yeah, basically I'm being too lazy to go back and look, still waking up with a coffee right now, LOL!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is that one LWX's expected (mean) amount, I assume? Looks like they upped it some, at least compared to the point/click numbers I saw awhile ago. 2-4" DC area in general...of course more to the north. Does look like low-end warning criteria as you approach the PA/MD border.

That is the most likely amount or the official forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK, that's what I thought at least looking at the title near the bottom (the other posted image was the max amount). Does look a bit higher at least from the point/click that I saw, whatever that's worth.

It does. Currently that means they are leaning more toward the colder and wetter solutions...ie favored toward the max case (especially I-70 and north)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been a bit puzzled by the max amount map looking only slightly higher than the most likely range (which I think looks reasonable)

 

It's not all that uncommon I don't think.  You can consider the min/max as their estimate of the extremes of the envelope (or spread), so to speak, with the mean being of course the expected value.  I would interpret that to imply they are hedging toward their higher numbers (more confidence in that).  As I recall, they did the same for the January blizzard...the mean numbers were close to the max.

 

ETA:  Ninja'd by ers-wx above!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...