Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 We've been lucky for two winters ('13-'14 and last year) without much NAO blocking...we can survive better than the M.A. without it, though even they did pretty well in those years. But a lot of times it doesn't work even with a good EPO region and adjacent areas...ala 1988-1989, 1980-1981, and even 1990-1991. I'm not one to want to rely on it and gamble the PNA up to EPO region will save us. We were probably lucky that the years were positive ENSO or we would have been screwed. I know that just stating what has happened the last half decade. One question I need to check out some day is of the last 15 years when my yearly average jumped 16% how many of those snow storms were during -NAO states. Monthly stats don't tell the real story. The dailies are far more representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Probably a big reason why LR forecasting is so inaccurate. There's about a million things that "can go wrong" to screw it up. Some of them we probably are not even aware of. Absolutely. I hope Scott doesn't get the impression that I'm trying to undermine him in any way, but its just so difficult to pinpoint causation, that you can drive yourself bat$hit. I wouldn't even go there unless you have the definitive causation figured yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 My point to that, is the reason why it flipped was from the troposphere. Thank God it did because January could have been ugly. I'm not saying else, but that. Has absolutely zero to do with stratosphere. Agreed. As far as Cohen goes, but you still have to credit those who called for blocking in general. Say what you will, but I think what is about to happen is related to Cohen's work....possibly even indirectly, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ray if you recall, I said if we see anything.... it would probably be in February regarding any SSW. I also said I think that is highly overrated and that the Pacific was more important to me. I stand by that. I have no magic voodoo...no PV model run by a super computer in my basement...just models and my own educated guess. Yes, you did say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Absolutely. I hope Scott doesn't get the impression that I'm truing to undermine him in any way, but its just so difficult to pinpoint causation, that you can drive yourself bat$hit. I wouldn't even go there unless you have the definitive causation figured yourself. I thought I did the opposite. I saw so many saying "Judah FTW" when that happened 5 weeks ago. Instead, my response was for people to sit down and actually see how this happened. I saw too many people quick to rush to the conclusion of his theory. This doesn't mean the theory is false. These things happen often in winter even if Siberia was bare ground. People need to see how things work in the atmosphere. February is well removed from October. The displacement process we are seeing is likely due to near term reasons. Just to Clarify, it's more of a push away from the North Pole. This things isn't going into the Mediterranean or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Agreed. As far as Cohen goes, but you still have to credit those who called for blocking in general. Say what you will, but I think what is about to happen is related to Cohen's work....possibly even indirectly, who knows... My understanding of blocking was -NAO. That's usually what people mean. That still is up in the air. His theory iirc (I don't have a PC in front of me at the moment) was for the -AO process to start because of strat warming late December into January. We are a month later and with a possible -AO for a time (we have yet to know if it even persists) from tropospheric and perhaps stratospheric response. Eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I thought I did the opposite. I saw so many saying "Judah FTW" when that happened 5 weeks ago. Instead, my response was for people to sit down and actually see how this happened. I saw too many people quick to rush to the conclusion of his theory. This doesn't mean the theory is false. These things happen often in winter even if Siberia was bare ground. People need to see how things work in the atmosphere. February is well removed from October. The displacement process we are seeing is likely due to near term reasons. Just to Clarify, it's more of a push away from the North Pole. This things isn't going into the Mediterranean or anything. You did in relation to the January episode, and I buy that that had nothing to do with the stratosphere. No argument. However I do not think that it is a coincidence that we are now seeing the warming....there is some sort of connection imo. My understanding of blocking was -NAO. That's usually what people mean. That still is up in the air. His theory iirc (I don't have a PC in front of me at the moment) was for the -AO process to start because of strat warming late December into January. We are a month later and with a possible -AO for a time (we have yet to know if it even persists) from tropospheric and perhaps stratospheric response. Eh. Well, I do not view blocking as exclusively in the NAO region....but I do still expect to see some NAO blocking....not 2010, but some. Wasn't the January -AO of the precursor variety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 And this is a 5d average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 And this is a 5d average... image.png Yeah but how about storms/snow threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah but how about storms/snow threat? That definitely is a risk for storms to come close and overhead, but it's also one looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah but how about storms/snow threat? Lol....he just showed you the projected pattern...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It looks to me nearly perfect with the high heights to the east forcing storms more s to n vs w to e. I agree that there is the threat of huggers which favor inland areas but also the threat of big honk in' snow storms favoring most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 You did in relation to the January episode, and I buy that that had nothing to do with the stratosphere. No argument. However I do not think that it is a coincidence that we are now seeing the warming....there is some sort of connection imo. Well, I do not view blocking as exclusively in the NAO region....but I do still expect to see some NAO blocking....not 2010, but some. Wasn't the January -AO of the precursor variety? I don't argue that there isn't. But, given what I see, this pattern would happen regardless of snowpack. The pattern now is certainly conducive for disturbing, and you can even use MJO as it moves east from the IO as a natural way to do so. So to me, to claim this was all Judah FTW, is misleading. But, there is never a way to quantify how much of the theory, is responsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol....he just showed you the projected pattern...lol. He never gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 obviously judging by the last 4/5 years snow stats here in SNE the transient blocks,Positive PNA,negative EPO are pretty efficient. I was forever on the NAO train but we have found an efficient process lol. If Feb March comes in big again with NAO I am good with cold AMO So funny because you could reverse that and say, judging by the last 4 years of snow stats here in NNE, this is not that efficient of a process for deep snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol....he just showed you the projected pattern...lol. His point was ho cold/much BN it is..He wasn't talking about storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 And this is a 5d average... image.png Beautiful long wave trough axis. Perfect spot over the Lakes and not right over us...allows systems to turn the corner and come up not out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Congrats Ginx Todd Crawford @tcrawf_nh 23m 23 minutes ago Todd Crawford Retweeted NWS Boston Top 1-2 warm Nov-Jan across southern New England Todd Crawford added, NWS Boston @NWSBostonSpeaking of mild, nearly #1 all-time at all 4 of our climate sites for warmest avg temp over last 3 months 0 retweets1 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 His point was ho cold/much BN it is..He wasn't talking about storms. How do you know his point was below normal cold? Those are H5 heights, not surface temperatures. Look at how storms would travel in that pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 His point was ho cold/much BN it is..He wasn't talking about storms. So you don't understand the implication with that long wave pattern or do you need to know if a storm is pronged for February 17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 How do you know his point was below normal cold? Those are H5 heights, not surface temperatures. Look at how storms would travel in that pattern... Because he typed average in italics. Anyway..that's not a snowy pattern for SNE..That would favor you..so I guess your time is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Because he typed average in italics. Anyway..that's not a snowy pattern for SNE..That would favor you..so I guess your time is here Yeah its a 5 day 500mb height anomaly (which is an average of those 5 days). Ahh its too early for this, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Because he typed average in italics. Anyway..that's not a snowy pattern for SNE..That would favor you..so I guess your time is here Lol ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I like the position and wet anomalies over us. Not sure why the crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I like the position and wet anomalies over us. Not sure why the crying. What? I'm happy for storm threats and opportunities. Beats the last 60 days for sure. Just don;t want rainers while State College to BTV get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What? I'm happy for storm threats and opportunities. Beats the last 60 days for sure. Just don;t want rainers while State College to BTV get crushed. You said " it's not a snowy pattern." How can You even say that? I would take it any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Even some weak ridging into Greenland. We don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What? I'm happy for storm threats and opportunities. Beats the last 60 days for sure. Just don;t want rainers while State College to BTV get crushed. You may get mixers. That is not a pattern of rainers. It does show the potential for big snow and mixed events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Because he typed average in italics. Anyway..that's not a snowy pattern for SNE..That would favor you..so I guess your time is here lol wowYeah...italics meaning for a 5 day mean out to d15 look at how strong those features are. There's nothing "washed out" or transient there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 lol wow Yeah...italics meaning for a 5 day mean out to d15 look at how strong those features are. There's nothing "washed out" or transient there. He should take a break from this thread....when you start analyzing the font someone posts vs the longwave pattern to determine the storm chances, you know you have gone on full tilt. Probably better suited for the banter thread. That's a very good pattern with a really amped poleward ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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